农村留守家庭研究综述

留守家庭是我国城镇化、现代化以及社会转型的产物,农村留守家庭对于理解中国社会转型不同于西方现代化过程的特征具有独特价值。基于劳动力迁移理论从宏观和微观两个角度研究国外留守家庭产生的原因,分析留守家庭现状及其带来的消极影响。通过对国内相关文献的检视发现,中国农村留守家庭有其特殊性,并已成为严重的社会问题,给个体、家庭、社会和国家带来多重影响。农村留守家庭的产生不仅源于家庭,更有复杂的制度、政策以及经济原因,要将留守家庭问题纳入到城镇化发展战略中来,创造农民举家迁移的进城市民化和就地集聚城镇化的制度环境和自由选择条件,才能解决留守家庭衍生的问题。     

渗透汽化膜分离技术及其膜材料的选择

本文介绍了渗透汽化膜分离技术的特点与应用,影响渗透汽化膜分离过程的因素以及膜材料的选择。     

Likelihood Factorizations for Mixed Discrete and Continuous Variables

Some general remarks are made about likelihood factorizations, distinguishing parameter-based factorizations and concentration-graph factorizations. Two parametric families of distributions for mixed discrete and continuous variables are discussed. Conditions on graphs are given for the circumstances under which their joint analysis can be split into separate analyses, each involving a reduced set of component variables and parameters. The result shows marked differences between the two families although both involve the same necessary condition on prime graphs. This condition is both necessary and sufficient for simplified estimation in Gaussian and for discrete log linear models.     

人工智能企业的权力生产及其政治影响

人类社会漫长的政治发展进程中充满了权力生产与权力转移现象。随着人工智能时代的到来,作为人工智能技术关键成分的数据与算法,逐渐成为权力生产的新要素,谁掌握更充分的数据和更先进的算法,谁就可能拥有更多或更大的权力,技术的赋权效应得以彰显。技术赋权可能催生新权力主体,权力转移现象可能再度发生。人工智能企业既因为在数据与算法方面拥有独特的技术优势而内生出部分权力,也因为为国家治理提供技术辅助而另外获得部分权力,可能成为与国家相媲美的新权力中心。人工智能企业的权力增长,可能促使国家治理权力结构从传统的单中心结构变为多中心结构;与此同时,由于人工智能时代的国家治理越来越倚重人工智能企业提供算法支持,而算法可能出现失误,加之“算法黑箱”和卸责链条的存在,因此人工智能企业的权力增长还可能消解权责同体的基本政治规则,引发权责分离现象或者说国家治理问责难题。新权力中心在多大概率上会出现,既取决于国家与人工智能企业的技术实力对比,也取决于国家治理对人工智能企业的技术依赖程度。应对人工智能时代的权责分离现象或者说问责难题,除了促使人工智能企业高度自律,还需要国家匹配备案与试点制、随机抽查检验制、服务积分制等制...     

The Varied Impact of Couple Relationship Breakdown on Children: Implications for Practice and Policy

This review of international literature assesses the impacts that the relationship breakdown of parents has on children and factors that can provide support should this occur. The parental separation process causes significant albeit short‐term distress for most children, with a minority reporting longer‐term outcomes such as socio‐economic disadvantage, behavioural problems, poor educational achievement, and physical and emotional health problems. Factors increasing the likelihood of sustained disadvantage include: poverty; poor parent–child relationships; continuing parental conflict, multiple transitions in family formation; and poor maternal mental health. Supporting the factors that can improve child outcomes, exploring opportune ways to strengthen couple and family relationships, and integrating the views of children (for example, in court‐based dispute resolution) are the leading implications for practice and policy.     

Intimate partner violence and women's experiences of grief

A greater understanding of women's emotional and behavioural responses to intimate partner violence (IPV) may be aided by an examination of the grief course. Women going through the process of leaving their abusers, like women leaving non‐violent partners, experience grief during and at the termination of their relationship, even if they feel relief at the cessation of violence. Through qualitative interviews with 14 female survivors of IPV, we critically examine the utility of Kubler‐Ross' grief model to understand how women come to terms with their experiences of violence and the end of their violent relationships. Results suggest that Kubler‐Ross' model helps explain the emotional reactions and decision‐making of IPV survivors in regard to staying, leaving and returning to their partners. While a model developed to explain grief due to death may not entirely explain the reactions of IPV survivors going through the process of leaving abusive partners, and does not account for psychological reactions to trauma, social workers and mental‐health professionals can use this grief model as a framework to better tailor services to survivors of IPV.     

Quasi-complete separation in random effects of binary response mixed models

ABSTRACT

Clustered observations such as longitudinal data are often analysed with generalized linear mixed models (GLMM). Approximate Bayesian inference for GLMMs with normally distributed random effects can be done using integrated nested Laplace approximations (INLA), which is in general known to yield accurate results. However, INLA is known to be less accurate for GLMMs with binary response. For longitudinal binary response data it is common that patients do not change their health state during the study period. In this case the grouping covariate perfectly predicts a subset of the response, which implies a monotone likelihood with diverging maximum likelihood (ML) estimates for cluster-specific parameters. This is known as quasi-complete separation. In this paper we demonstrate, based on longitudinal data from a randomized clinical trial and two simulations, that the accuracy of INLA decreases with increasing degree of cluster-specific quasi-complete separation. Comparing parameter estimates by INLA, Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling and ML shows that INLA increasingly deviates from the other methods in such a scenario.     

中国政治体制改革的路径探析

中国政治体制改革的根本目标是发展社会主义民主政治。文章主要从完善人民代表大会制度、发展党内民主、基层民主自治和实行党政分开等四条基本路径入手,对中国政治体制改革路径进行探析,以不断深化发展。     

柏拉图理想同的理念论解读

柏拉图的理想国及其“哲学王”思想是其政治哲学的核心,是以理念论作为哲学基础的。柏拉图认为,世界分离为两个不同的领域,即可感世界和可知世界。真实的世界是在具体事物之外的存在,是人类理性才能把握的抽象的理念的世界。知识的获取过程是对理念世界的认知和接近,是灵魂对迷失的理念的“回忆”。最高的理念是“善”,它是宇宙万物的最高原理,只有在“善”的理念引导下的城邦才会具有正义的品质,而拥有这种最高智慧是哲学家的天性。“哲学王”是在政治生活领域中的理性治国的体现,是柏拉图政治思想中最核心和最有独创性的地方,是一种知识与权力相结合的政治制度,是建立在作为本体论的理念世界中的理性国度。     

市场化进程、二权分离程度与会计稳健性研究——来自中国资本市场的证据

本文以我国2004--2006年间金融类A股上市公司为样本,采取Ball和Shivakumar的权责发生制模型检验市场化进程、二权分离程度和会计稳健性之间的关系。研究结果表明,控股股东的二权分离程度对公司会计稳健性产生了影响,而且这一影响程度视控股股东的控制权程度而不同,进一步研究发现外部治理环境会对会计盈余的稳健性程度也产生了明显影响。