疲劳裂纹扩展的数值模拟

本文基于弹塑性基本理论．针对理想弹塑性模型．随动强化模型．编制了弹塑性有限元程序，并成功地模拟了疲劳裂纹稳定扩展和超载延迟等实验现象．     

虚拟现实技术的发展及其在矿业中的应用

章介绍了虚拟现实（VR）技术的基本概念，系统构成以及在矿业工程方面的应用现状，并展示了虚拟现实技术在矿业中应用的广阔前景。     

PSPICE在二阶电路教学中的应用

通过实例介绍PSPICE8.0电路设计软件在二阶电路教学中的仿真演示，并说明该软件在电路原理课程教学中的重要作用。     

基于系统动力学的生态文明建设政策模拟与仿真研究

生态文明建设涉及生态环境保护、资源集约节约、环境治理改善等诸多问题，是一个复杂的动态过程。为探究不同政策对该过程的影响，本文从经济、人口、教育、科技、环境治理等要素出发，构建生态文明建设系统的动力学模型，设计3类共11种仿真情景，模拟不同政策及组合政策作用下中国生态文明的建设情况。结果表明：（1）延续当前发展模式中国生态文明建设水平将进一步提高，资源节约领域的进步最为显著；（2）单一政策情景下科技政策对于生态文明建设的整体推动作用最大，生育政策对于生态文明建设的促进作用优于基准情景，但弱于教育政策与环境治理政策的作用效果；（3）组合政策情景下，科技与环境治理政策组合对于生态保护领域的推动作用最大，教育与科技政策组合能够实现最高的资源利用效率，提高生态文明建设水平的政策组合选择还应结合环境治理领域长短期目标的实现进行，前一组合能够较快实现目标，而后一组合能够实现更稳定的进步；（4）科技政策在单一政策情景与组合政策情景中均成为重要的政策因子，印证了科技创新在生态文明建设中的重要作用。     

供应链和ERP在电子商务模拟教学系统中的应用

为了模拟真实的商务活动,采用了以产品作为供应链建立依据的方法。学员通过其生产的产品确定自己在供应链中的位置,得到了在网络模拟环境下实现供应链和企业内部ERP的解决方案。通过在数据库中设定相关数据表和处理流程,实现了模拟教学环境下的供应链和企业内部的ERP,可以模拟企业之间的合作和竞争关系。     

Minimum Φ-divergence estimator in logistic regression models

A general class of minimum distance estimators for logistic regression models based on the ϕ-divergence measures is introduced: The minimum ϕ-divergence estimator, which is seen to be a generalization of the maximum likelihood estimator. Its asymptotic properties are studied as well as its behaviour in small samples throught a simulation study. This work was supported partially by Grant DGI (BMF2003-00892).     

基于Copula理论的VaR算法与实证分析

针对在金融市场中资产收益的非正态分布以及资产组合中不同的风险资产的非线性相关,将Copula理论应用于资产组合的VaR估计之中。上证指数和深证综合指数的算例表明,由于Copula方法允许去选择更恰当的边际分布,并且Copu-la理论对相关性分析特别是尾部的相关性分析有特殊优势,可以跟更广泛的捕获各风险资产的相关信息,基于Copula理论的VaR在估算的精度方面优于传统的方法。     

OPTIMIRUS. Simulating Population Change in the Russian Far East

This article examines the population trends in the cities of the Russian Far East between the two census years 1989 and 2002. Three geographical models – Rank-Size Rule, Temperature per Capita and a simple gravity model – are used to describe the direction of these population trends. An economic efficiency function is constructed from the three models to simulate an ideal population distribution for the Russian Far East. The heart of the simulation is a conjugate gradient optimisation of the economic efficiency function. The results serve as an important backdrop to discussions of current population trends and serve as an important backdrop to discussions of current population trends and as basis for recommendations concerning future changes in the spatial distribution of population in the region.Mueller, K., et Bradshaw M. J., 2006. OPTIMIRUS. Une simulation des variations de population dans l’Extrême-Orient russe. Revue européenne de démographie, 22:105–126.     

Modelling and simulation to improve decision‐making in clinical development

Modelling and simulation are buzz words in clinical drug development. But is clinical trial simulation (CTS) really a revolutionary technique? There is not much more to CTS than applying standard methods of modelling, statistics and decision theory. However, doing this in a systematic way can mean a significant improvement in pharmaceutical research. This paper describes in simple examples how modelling could be used in clinical development. Four steps are identified: gathering relevant information about a drug and the disease; building a mathematical model; predicting the results of potential future trials; and optimizing clinical trials and the entire clinical programme. We discuss these steps and give a number of examples of model components, demonstrating that relatively unsophisticated models may also prove useful. We stress that modelling and simulation are decision tools and point out the benefits of integrating them with decision analysis. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

一种委托代理模型的计算机仿真与分析

应用计算机仿真技术,分析计算多参数、多目标、多约束委托代理模型,分别探讨了在基本约束框架下,利润目标函数模型的建立及无约束化处理的适应度函数;通过实际数据仿真计算函数曲线,取得了较好的应用效果.