The Design of Scoring Schemes for Surveys Using the Block Total Response Method

ABSTRACT

In this article we investigate the design of scoring schemes for surveys using the block total response method. This method was first proposed by Raghavarao and Federer (1979 Raghavarao , D. , Federer , W. T. ( 1979 ). Block total response as an alternative to the randomized response method in surveys . J. Roy. Statist. Soc. 41 ( 1 ): 40 – 45 . [CSA] [CROSSREF]  [Google Scholar]) to provide accurate estimates of the base rates of sensitive characteristics using balanced incomplete block designs. The scoring scheme used in Raghavarao and Federer (1979 Raghavarao , D. , Federer , W. T. ( 1979 ). Block total response as an alternative to the randomized response method in surveys . J. Roy. Statist. Soc. 41 ( 1 ): 40 – 45 . [CSA] [CROSSREF]  [Google Scholar]) did not guarantee anonymity of answers and so the possibility of improving on this basic scoring scheme is considered in this article.     

A Similarity Measure Based on Species Proportions

ABSTRACT

There are several indices for measuring the similarity of two populations, including the ratio of the number of shared species to the number of distinct species (Jaccard's index) and the conditional probability of observing a shared species (Smith et al., 1996 Smith , W. , Solow , A. R. , Preston , P. E. ( 1996 ). An estimator of species overlap using a modified beta-binomial model. Biometrics 52 : 1472 – 1477 . [CSA] [CROSSREF] [Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]). However, these indices only take into account the number of species and species proportions of shared species. In this article, we propose a new similarity index which includes the species proportions of both the shared and non shared species in each population, and also propose a Nonparametric Maximum Likelihood Estimator (NPMLE) for this index. Bootstrap and delta methods are used to evaluate the standard errors of the NPMLE. Based on a loss function, we also compare a class of nonparametric estimators for the proposed index in various situations.     

Measuring and Decomposing Productivity Change

Measuring productivity change with Malmquist indices has become common practice, because they are easily computed using nonparametric programming techniques and can be readily decomposed into technical and efficiency change. However, this approach is nonstochastic and requires a constant returns to scale assumption to construct the reference technology. We propose estimating productivity change using a stochastic input distance frontier, imposing no restrictions on returns to scale. We derive the analogous decomposition of productivity change and develop a generalized method of moments strategy in which outputs or inputs may be endogenous. We compare two methods in an application to electric utilities.     

基尼系数的区间估计及其应用

 本文给出了收入为离散分布的三种计算基尼系数的新方法。利用收入份额法导出了基尼系数协方差算法的离散形式,并因此产生了计算基尼系数的回归系数法。文章重点讨论了基尼系数进行区间估计的两种方法,这些方法也适用于集中度指数,因而它们在测度社会经济领域的不平等中具有着十分广泛的用途。实际应用表明,新算法有效地简化了对基尼系数区间估计的标准差估算。     

判别企业生命周期的新方法——构面偏差法

企业生命周期的判别方法存在指标单一、可操作性不强等诸多的问题,成为制约基于生命周期的相关企业管理研究的一个瓶颈。将构面偏差的方法应用到企业生命周期的判别中,详细阐述了基于构面偏差的企业生命周期判别方法的基本原理及应用,并以478个企业数据为例,详细说明了此方法的操作步骤,为基于生命周期的相关研究提供了科学的依据。     

基于季报数据的收入公告后漂移现象研究

利用收入指标对股票超额收益率进行解释构成了理解"定价异常"的重要方面。为此,基于盈余公告后漂移的理论分析框架,以上证A股2008年1季度至2011年4季度的相关数据为基础,利用标准化预期外收入估计量(SURE)和分类检验模型方法对中国股票市场公告期内股票价格的收入公告后漂移现象进行实证检验,研究发现:在盈余公告期内,预期外收入与股票超额收益率呈现出负相关或是不显著的关系,即中国股票市场的收入公告后漂移效应不显著。之后的稳健性分析也同样证实了负相关或是不显著关系的存在,而这种异常可能与中国股市的弱有效率相关。     

A Variable Selection Method for Analyzing Supersaturated Designs

Supersaturated designs are a large class of factorial designs which can be used for screening out the important factors from a large set of potentially active variables. The huge advantage of these designs is that they reduce the experimental cost drastically, but their critical disadvantage is the confounding involved in the statistical analysis. In this article, we propose a method for analyzing data using several types of supersaturated designs. Modifications of widely used information criteria are given and applied to the variable selection procedure for the identification of the active factors. The effectiveness of the proposed method is depicted via simulated experiments and comparisons.     

A Combined Nonlinear Programming Model and Kibria Method for Choosing Ridge Parameter Regression

Ridge regression solves multicollinearity problems by introducing a biasing parameter that is called ridge parameter; it shrinks the estimates as well as their standard errors in order to reach acceptable results. Many methods are available for estimating a ridge parameter. This article has considered some of these methods and also proposed a combined nonlinear programming model and Kibria method. A simulation study has been made to evaluate the performance of the proposed estimators based on the minimum mean squared error criterion. The simulation study indicates that under certain conditions the proposed estimators outperform the least squares (LS) estimators and other popular existing estimators. Moreover, the new proposed model is applied on dataset that suffers also from the presence of heteroscedastic errors.     

McDonald's ωt,Cronbach's α, and Generalized θ for Composite Reliability of Common Factors Structures

In the common factor model for subtest scores, several reliability coefficients, including Cronbach's α, have been found to be biased. In this article, we introduce a new coefficient, θ_G, or Generalized θ, which is a generalized version of Armor's θ coefficient and is equal to the true reliability when the dimensions are orthogonal and the measures are parallel. We assessed the McDonald's ω_t, α, and θ_G in terms of mean bias, efficiency, and precision using a Monte Carlo simulation. θ_G outperformed ω_t when the factors were orthogonal or nearly orthogonal with low correlations between them.     

Bayesian,MLE, and GMM Estimation of a Spot Rate Model

ABSTRACT

We develop Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms for estimating the parameters of the short-term interest rate model. Using Monte Carlo experiments we compare the Bayes estimators with the maximum likelihood and generalized method of moments estimators. We estimate the model using the Japanese overnight call rate data.