The Asymptotic Estimate of Ruin Probability Under a Class of Risk Model in the Presence of Heavy Tails

In contrast with the classical Cramér–Lundberg model where the premium process is a linear function of time, we consider the ruin probability under the risk model where the aggregate premium consists of both a compound Poisson process and a linear process of time. Moreover, a constant interest force is also taken into account in our model. We restrict ourselves to the case where the claim size is heavy-tailed, i.e., the equilibrium distribution function of the claim size belongs to a wide subclass of the subexponential distribution. An asymptotic formula for the ruin probability is obtained by using the similar method of Kalashnikov and Konstantinides (2000 Kalashnikov , V. , Konstantinides , D. ( 2000 ). Ruin under interest force and subexponential claims: a simple treament . Insur. Math. Econ. 27 : 145 – 149 .[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]). The asymptotic formula we get here is the same as the one in Asmussen (1998 Asmussen , S. ( 1998 ). Subexponential asymptotics for stochastic processes: extremal behaviour, stationary distribution and first passage probabilities . Ann. Appl. Probab. 8 : 354 – 374 .[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]), Klüppelberg and Stadtmüller (1998 Klüppelberg , C. , Stadtmüller , U. ( 1998 ). Ruin probabilities in the presence of heavy-tails and interest rates . Scand. Actuarial J. 1 : 49 – 58 .[Taylor & Francis Online] , [Google Scholar]), and Kalashnikov and Konstantinides (2000 Kalashnikov , V. , Konstantinides , D. ( 2000 ). Ruin under interest force and subexponential claims: a simple treament . Insur. Math. Econ. 27 : 145 – 149 .[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) which did not consider the stochastic premium.     

再议西部地区农村劳动力转移——基于个体决策的研究

从西部农村劳动力个体转移决策的角度,对西部农村劳动力转移的问卷结果进行统计分析和Logit回归,研究可知,劳动力自身素质、外部客观条件和个体偏好是西部农村劳动力转移的影响因素;西部农村家庭收入是影响劳动力转移决策最主要的原因.通过建立收入敏感指数、家庭经济压力指数、个人能力指数和农业生产劳动力需求指数及其阀值对西部农村劳动力进行类型分析,结果表明,西部农村转移劳动力中存在76.93％的非理性转移,未转移劳动力中存在64.3％的未转移富余劳动力.     

论当代中国国家凝聚力的三维构成

国家凝聚力是一个国家振兴发展的不竭动力。任何国家要在激烈的国际竞争中谋求一席之地,都必须增强国家凝聚力。在当代中国,国家凝聚力主要是由三种力量结合在一起所构成的整体合力,即中国共产党的聚合力、全国各族人民的团结力以及中国特色社会主义道路的强大生命力。中国共产党的聚合力是当代中国国家凝聚力形成和发展的坚强核心;全国各族人民的团结力是当代中国国家凝聚力形成和发展的前提基础;中国特色社会主义道路的强大生命力是当代中国国家凝聚力形成和发展的根本保证。     

农村劳动力转移的新途径：创意农业

创意农业是迅速崛起的现代农业,它以农业多功能性为基础,具有低碳、环保特质和可持续发展性。创意农业通过农业多样化路径,演化成农产品加工产业、农村文化产业和旅游产业三种产业形态,实现产业集聚和产业融合,整合上下产业链,满足社会需求升级,从而创造大量与农业相关的非农职业,吸收农业不断释放出来的劳动力,有序推动农村劳动力转移。创意农业的经济绩效在于提高了农业综合生产率,推进城镇化水平提高,有助于转变农业发展方式,缩小城乡收入差距,建立新型城乡关系。     

“徘徊”还是“准备”?——关于十一届三中全会前两年的历史地位探析

"文革"结束到十一届三中全会,在新中国的历史上是重要而特殊的两年,对这两年给予什么样的定位,关系到对当时全党上下特别是党中央工作成就的评价。从《建国以来若干历史问题的决议》起,我们一直称之为"在徘徊中前进"。30年后的今天,回顾比较当年的是是非非,用历史的、矛盾的、发展的观点认识问题,将之定位为"历史转折的准备时期"更为确切和适当。     

惯性力和电磁力的统一

通过对惯性场和电磁场分量的计算,指出惯性力和电磁力有一致的表示,并计算出惯性力和电磁力的相应结果,从而统一了惯性力和电磁力.     

学习是成就事业的第一基石

不断学习,善于学习,努力掌握和运用一切科学的新思想、新知识、新经验,是我们党始终走在时代前列、带领全国各族人民全面建成小康社会和实现中华民族伟大复兴中国梦的关键因素和制胜法宝。为认真贯彻落实习近平总书记关于在全党大兴学习之风的要求,本文就学习问题进行了比较系统的论述。     

Early Childbearing Patterns and Women's Labor Force Behavior in Later Life

ABSTRACT

The purpose of this research is to evaluate the consequences of early childbearing decisions for women's labor force activity in later life. Within a life course framework, women's early child-bearing activities may be linked to later life decisions. Women between ages 55 and 64 are evaluated from the 1984 Survey of Income and Program Participation. Two measures of early family roles are considered: total fertility (number of children ever born) and timing of first-birth (childless, prior to age 30, and 30+). Results provide some limited support that early childbearing roles do in fact have a long-term impact on the employment decisions of women. Women who delay childbearing are somewhat more likely to remain in the labor force during their later years whereas women who remain childless are more likely to have exited the labor force.