“全面二孩”后的人口预期与政策展望

“全面二孩”生育政策究竟能对人口发展产生怎样的影响？文章假定今后维持“全面二孩”人口政策不变进行了人口预测。结果可知：城乡全面放开二孩政策并不会带来出生率的猛增和人口数量的剧烈反弹,高峰期最多可以新增出生人口400万;政策调整会提高人口峰值,有利于改善人口结构,延缓劳动力供给的衰减速度,但作用微乎其微。从其他国家的人口发展经验看,生育率的下降趋势似乎不可避免。因此,“全面二孩”并不是生育政策调整的终点,应继续监测生育水平,进一步调整生育政策;建立和完善“家庭友好”政策体系;从社会体制和经济体制应对负面影响。     

Unspanned Macroeconomic Factors in the Yield Curve

In this article, we extract common factors from a cross-section of U.S. macro-variables and Treasury zero-coupon yields. We find that two macroeconomic factors have an important predictive content for government bond yields and excess returns. These factors are not spanned by the cross-section of yields and are well proxied by economic growth and real interest rates.     

Investigating impacts of complex sampling on latent growth curve modelling

We investigate the impacts of complex sampling on point and standard error estimates in latent growth curve modelling of survey data. Methodological issues are illustrated with empirical evidence from the analysis of longitudinal data on life satisfaction trajectories using data from the British Household Panel Survey, a national representative survey in Great Britain. A multi-process second-order latent growth curve model with conditional linear growth is used to study variation in the two perceived life satisfaction latent factors considered. The benefits of accounting for the complex survey design are considered, including obtaining unbiased both point and standard error estimates, and therefore correctly specified confidence intervals and statistical tests. We conclude that, even for the rather elaborated longitudinal data models that were considered, estimation procedures are affected by variance-inflating impacts of complex sampling.     

论动因竞争对语序自由度的影响——以Hawkins长度顺序和可移动原则为例

流行于语言学教科书中的一个观点是:语序的自由度跟形态丰富程度成正比。这种观点有很大的局限。引入类型学“动因竞争”这个概念来讨论Hawkins提出的影响名词短语修饰语语序的“可移动原则”和“长度顺序原则”,可以得出结论:语序动因的运用程度是影响语序自由度的重要因素,只是该因素长期被忽视了,而“语序动因运用规律”则可说明此问题。     

Accuracy of approximate progressively censored reliability sampling plans for exponential models

Reliability sampling plans provide an efficient method to determine the acceptability of a product based upon the lifelengths of some test units. Usually, they depend on the producer and consumer’s quality requirements and do not admit closed form solutions. Acceptance sampling plans for one- and two-parameter exponential lifetime models, derived by approximating the operating characteristic curve, are presented in this paper. The accuracy of these approximate plans, which are explicitly expressible and valid for failure and progressive censoring, is assessed. The approximation proposed in the one-parameter case is found to be practically exact. Explicit lower and upper bounds on the smallest sample size are given in the two-parameter case. Some additional advantages are also pointed out.     

使用PC1D 5.9模拟高效单晶硅太阳能电池

介绍了使用PC1D 5.9软件模拟高效单晶硅太阳能电池的方法。通过建立太阳能电池的结构模型和参数模型,在模拟的电池测试环境下,仿真得到太阳能电池的电压-电流曲线和量子效率曲线,并根据太阳能电池的理论,计算填充因子和转换效率的值。     

Multivariate outliers and decompositions of mahalanobis distance

Two decompositions of the Mahalanobis distance are considered. These decompositions help to explain some reasons for the outlyingness of multivari- ate observations. They also provide a graphical tool for identifying outliers including those that have a large influence on the multiple correlation coefficient, Illustrative examples are given.     

《联合国海洋法公约》对海盗罪规定的超普遍管辖权研究

《联合国海洋法公约》对海盗罪规定了超普遍管辖权。这种管辖权明显区别于普遍管辖权,对于打击海盗罪非常便捷、有力。但是,如果对行使地域不加限制,就会严重侵犯国家主权。因此公约严格将海盗罪的行为地限制在公海或任何国家管辖范围之外的地方。这种限制是非常合理的。对于不在限制地域发生的海盗行为,不能行使超普遍管辖权,而只能行使其他管辖权。     

Contrasting the Gini and Zenga indices of economic inequality

The current financial turbulence in Europe inspires and perhaps requires researchers to rethink how to measure incomes, wealth, and other parameters of interest to policy-makers and others. The noticeable increase in disparities between less and more fortunate individuals suggests that measures based upon comparing the incomes of less fortunate with the mean of the entire population may not be adequate. The classical Gini and related indices of economic inequality, however, are based exactly on such comparisons. It is because of this reason that in this paper we explore and contrast the classical Gini index with a new Zenga index, the latter being based on comparisons of the means of less and more fortunate sub-populations, irrespectively of the threshold that might be used to delineate the two sub-populations. The empirical part of the paper is based on the 2001 wave of the European Community Household Panel data set provided by EuroStat. Even though sample sizes appear to be large, we supplement the estimated Gini and Zenga indices with measures of variability in the form of normal, t-bootstrap, and bootstrap bias-corrected and accelerated confidence intervals.