深井水平井水平段水力延伸能力评价与分析

对影响水平井水平段延伸能力的因素进行了分析,然后根据钻井液流体力学理论,建立了水平井循环压耗计算模型,分别对水平井总循环压耗和水平段环空压耗进行计算,进而求出了水平井水平段极限延伸长度值;对钻井液密度、钻井泵额定压力、岩屑床高度和钻井液排量对水平段水力延伸能力的影响进行了分析。研究表明,水平段水力延伸能力受钻井液密度、钻井泵额定压力、岩屑床高度和钻井液排量等多个因素共同影响。为了提高深井水平井的延伸能力,应使用较低密度的钻井液;尽量保持较低的岩屑床高度;钻井液排量应尽量小。同时还认识到,深井水平井水力延伸能力主要受到钻井泵额定压力的制约。研发高额定压力的钻井泵,是提高深井水平井水力延伸能力的主要措施。     

Variable selection in partial linear regression with functional covariate

The problem of variable selection is considered in high-dimensional partial linear regression under some model allowing for possibly functional variable. The procedure studied is that of nonconcave-penalized least squares. It is shown the existence of a √n/s_n-consistent estimator for the vector of p_n linear parameters in the model, even when p_n tends to ∞ as the sample size n increases (s_n denotes the number of influential variables). An oracle property is also obtained for the variable selection method, and the nonparametric rate of convergence is stated for the estimator of the nonlinear functional component of the model. Finally, a simulation study illustrates the finite sample size performance of our procedure.     

Likelihood approach for evaluating bioequivalence of highly variable drugs

Bioequivalence (BE) is required for approving a generic drug. The two one‐sided tests procedure (TOST, or the 90% confidence interval approach) has been used as the mainstream methodology to test average BE (ABE) on pharmacokinetic parameters such as the area under the blood concentration‐time curve and the peak concentration. However, for highly variable drugs (%CV > 30%), it is difficult to demonstrate ABE in a standard cross‐over study with the typical number of subjects using the TOST because of lack of power. Recently, the US Food and Drug Administration and the European Medicines Agency recommended similar but not identical reference‐scaled average BE (RSABE) approaches to address this issue. Although the power is improved, the new approaches may not guarantee a high level of confidence for the true difference between two drugs at the ABE boundaries. It is also difficult for these approaches to address the issues of population BE (PBE) and individual BE (IBE). We advocate the use of a likelihood approach for representing and interpreting BE data as evidence. Using example data from a full replicate 2 × 4 cross‐over study, we demonstrate how to present evidence using the profile likelihoods for the mean difference and standard deviation ratios of the two drugs for the pharmacokinetic parameters. With this approach, we present evidence for PBE and IBE as well as ABE within a unified framework. Our simulations show that the operating characteristics of the proposed likelihood approach are comparable with the RSABE approaches when the same criteria are applied. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

一致性分数阶优化灰色模型及其应用

传统的分数阶灰色预测模型在时间序列预测中具有较好的适应性和预测的有效性,但其累加和差分计算式比较复杂。一致性分数阶累加相对于一般的分数阶累加,形式更简单,更便于计算和理论推导。为了提高模型的适应性和预测能力,文章在CFGM(1,1)白化方程中引入一个新的可变系数,扩大了原有白化方程的适用范围,并在此基础上构建了一致性分数阶优化灰色模型,即CFOGM(1,1)模型。最优一致性分数阶阶数和可变系数通过PSO算法最小化平均相对误差获得。将构建的模型运用到两个实例中并与其他经典的灰色预测模型进行对比,结果表明所提出的模型具有较高的拟合和预测精度。     

推行"二级导师制"的背景、成效与前瞻

立足当前高校的现实,运用管理理论研究最新成果,按"系统动力学"原理突破原有组织结构,建立"系统思考"机制,构建"学习型组织",全面推行"二级导师制"对学科建设、师资队伍建设、提高教学科研水平、强化学生综合素质培养具有明显的整体推进效应,是对原有教研管理模式的突破与创新.如何深化改革、完善制度,充分展现"二级导师制"的生机和活力,这是需要我们深入探讨的一项重要课题.     

从两类典型经济循环看经济社会的科学发展

经济资源可以划分为自然、人力、知识、资本和基础结构等部分。根据自然、人力、知识、资本等几大要素的差异及关联关系,可以区分出两种典型经济循环:资源劳力型经济和知识资本型经济。两型经济的循环方式、存在基础、交换关系等方面有不同的特征。我国两型经济发展失衡,是导致各种问题的主要原因。因此,用战略技术推动经济发展、减少高级资源浪费、促进两型经济均衡协调发展,是我国科学发展经济的关键。     

南宋时期江南农村市场与商品经济

南宋时期,江南农村市场快速成长,开始形成较为完整的区域体系。其中,广泛兴起的各种集市将市场活动扩散到农村各个角落,使农民零散的交易活动纳入到一定地域范围的商品流通网络之中,由此发挥出初级市场的作用。镇市则属于更为成熟的市场形式,不仅商品流通规模大,辐射范围广,而且与城市市场和跨地区市场联系密切,因而具有中心市场的特点。在此基础上,江南农村多层次的商品流通日趋活跃,跨地区的市场联系不断加强,进而在一定程度上出现了商品生产的地域分工格局。小农经济也发生相应变化,农村家庭的消费和生产活动逐渐呈现出由传统的自给自足模式向市场供给和商品化生产转变的趋向。但此期江南农村市场和商品经济的发展总体上仍相当有限,且明显受人口增长压力和宋廷赋税货币化政策的影响,某些方面甚至可以说是畸形的繁荣。     

合理商品流通规模形成机制研究

合理商品流通规模的质的含义 ,是指商品流通规模的大小能够使商品流通系统经营服务能力达到最大化 ,并能够使国民经济系统处于良性循环的运动状态。合理商品流通规模量的含义 ,是指商品流通规模的大小必须适合社会再生产过程中各种因素所能承受的数量界限的可能性。商品流通规模合理化的指标体系由总量标准、结构标准和效率标准三大部分组成。商品流通规模扩张的动力结构 ,由原生动力、直接动力和间接动力组成。商品流通规模的调节机制 ,则由自我调节机制和宏观调节机制组成。