公路桥梁技术状况评定体系及其应用

桥梁结构的损伤、功能不足和易损性都可以表示为技术状况，并以技术状况等级来描述。桥梁技术状况是处理的依据，通过把技术状况映射到处理，可行处理的编号就决定了技术状况的编号。本文针对桥梁结构养护需要采取的处理措施，确定了对应于损伤、功能不足和易损性等的公路桥梁技术状况的体系及相应的评价指标，并通过对两种养护维修策略的分析阐述了其应用。     

环首都贫困带农村贫困家庭识别及其特征

克服传统的贫困线的弊端,利用"环首都贫困带22县人口状况"调查数据,采用微观多维度层次分析法将贫困带家庭按照"贫困—富裕度"划分为5类:非常贫困户、有些贫困户、一般户、比较富裕户和非常富裕户。通过对5类家庭进行比较分析,揭示出贫困带贫困家庭老年人口贫困化、人力资本存量低、收入来源单一以及脆弱性突出等特征。     

Income vulnerability of rural households in Bangladesh: a comparison between Bayesian and classical methods

The geographical location and the monsoon climate render Bangladesh highly vulnerable to natural hazards, deteriorating the country's socio-economic stability. This study is based on 500 randomly chosen rural households from the Household Income and Expenditure Survey [Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics, Planning Division, Ministry of Planning, Government of the People's Republic of Bangladesh, Dhaka, 2006]. The objectives are to estimate the income vulnerability of rural households and to check whether the Bayesian approaches (natural conjugate prior and non-informative prior estimates) have any superiority over the classical (feasible generalized least square (FGLS)) method. The poverty level, measured from the data, is 24%; whereas the vulnerability estimates, using FGLS, natural conjugate prior and non-informative prior are 31%, 69% and 82%, respectively. Vulnerability estimates by the Bayesian natural conjugate prior approach is found to have greater efficiency compared with FGLS and non-informative prior approaches.     

An Optimization‐Based Framework for the Identification of Vulnerabilities in Electric Power Grids Exposed to Natural Hazards

This article proposes a novel mathematical optimization framework for the identification of the vulnerabilities of electric power infrastructure systems (which is a paramount example of critical infrastructure) due to natural hazards. In this framework, the potential impacts of a specific natural hazard on an infrastructure are first evaluated in terms of failure and recovery probabilities of system components. Then, these are fed into a bi‐level attacker–defender interdiction model to determine the critical components whose failures lead to the largest system functionality loss. The proposed framework bridges the gap between the difficulties of accurately predicting the hazard information in classical probability‐based analyses and the over conservatism of the pure attacker–defender interdiction models. Mathematically, the proposed model configures a bi‐level max‐min mixed integer linear programming (MILP) that is challenging to solve. For its solution, the problem is casted into an equivalent one‐level MILP that can be solved by efficient global solvers. The approach is applied to a case study concerning the vulnerability identification of the georeferenced RTS24 test system under simulated wind storms. The numerical results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed framework for identifying critical locations under multiple hazard events and, thus, for providing a useful tool to help decisionmakers in making more‐informed prehazard preparation decisions.     

Coping with Vulnerabilities in Old Age and Retirement: Cross-border Mobility,Family Relations and Social Networks of German Retirees in Alanya

ABSTRACT

Reduced income upon retirement is a vulnerability threat, which increases dependency on public provisions, familial, and/or social (community) support. Many German retirees, in addition to lifestyle motivations, move to low-cost destinations in order to maintain an autonomous and independent life while minimizing the risks of financial worsening. In this article, I discuss the vulnerability patterns of German retirees in the Mediterranean coastal town of Alanya, Turkey, and the role of social networks, with a particular focus on intergenerational family relations. I argue that, despite increased life satisfaction, relocation to a new destination abroad results in new emerging threats. German retirees in Alanya experience difficulties in terms of a lack of intergenerational family support and the double jeopardy of being framed by the legal regulations of two nation states. Based on the findings of the empirical research conducted in Alanya in 2017, I will demonstrate new threats emerged after relocation and how retirees respond to those with new coping strategies.     

GIS‐Based Integration of Social Vulnerability and Level 3 Probabilistic Risk Assessment to Advance Emergency Preparedness,Planning, and Response for Severe Nuclear Power Plant Accidents

In the nuclear power industry, Level 3 probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) is used to estimate damage to public health and the environment if a severe accident leads to large radiological release. Current Level 3 PRA does not have an explicit inclusion of social factors and, therefore, it is not possible to perform importance ranking of social factors for risk‐informing emergency preparedness, planning, and response (EPPR). This article offers a methodology for adapting the concept of social vulnerability, commonly used in natural hazard research, in the context of a severe nuclear power plant accident. The methodology has four steps: (1) calculating a hazard‐independent social vulnerability index for the local population; (2) developing a location‐specific representation of the maximum radiological hazard estimated from current Level 3 PRA, in a geographic information system (GIS) environment; (3) developing a GIS‐based socio‐technical risk map by combining the social vulnerability index and the location‐specific radiological hazard; and (4) conducting a risk importance measure analysis to rank the criticality of social factors based on their contribution to the socio‐technical risk. The methodology is applied using results from the 2012 Surry Power Station state‐of‐the‐art reactor consequence analysis. A radiological hazard model is generated from MELCOR accident consequence code system, translated into a GIS environment, and combined with the Center for Disease Control social vulnerability index (SVI). This research creates an opportunity to explicitly consider and rank the criticality of location‐specific SVI themes based on their influence on risk, providing input for EPPR.     

Vulnerable relational knowing that matters

This paper explores vulnerable relational knowing, and in it we open up our own embodied habits and experiences as feminist academics. We discuss how displaying our academic bodies as naked, both symbolically and physically, enhances and appreciates—instead of hiding—vulnerability. We also discuss how our academic bodies entangle with a range of more-than-human creatures and material surroundings to highlight the multispecies and material nature of vulnerable relational knowing. Two detailed stories, “Intimate sharing of academic knowledge: A recumbent study circle” and “Keropirtti: A place and space to work differently” provide unique examples of the enactment of alternative ways of working in academia, and their analysis demonstrates the potential of vulnerability for embodied relational knowing in academia, which has, to date, been commonly analyzed in the context of writing.     

Assessing the Performance of a Classification‐Based Vulnerability Analysis Model

In this article, a classification model based on the majority rule sorting (MR‐Sort) method is employed to evaluate the vulnerability of safety‐critical systems with respect to malevolent intentional acts. The model is built on the basis of a (limited‐size) set of data representing (a priori known) vulnerability classification examples. The empirical construction of the classification model introduces a source of uncertainty into the vulnerability analysis process: a quantitative assessment of the performance of the classification model (in terms of accuracy and confidence in the assignments) is thus in order. Three different app oaches are here considered to this aim: (i) a model–retrieval‐based approach, (ii) the bootstrap method, and (iii) the leave‐one‐out cross‐validation technique. The analyses are presented with reference to an exemplificative case study involving the vulnerability assessment of nuclear power plants.     

Did the escalation of the financial crisis of 2008 affect the perception of immigration-related threats? A natural experiment

In this paper, we apply a natural experiment approach, comparing specific data from the European Values Study prior to and after the escalation of the financial crisis in 2008. The aim is to disentangle the short-term effect of the crisis on the relationship between social vulnerability and immigrant-related threat perceptions for the residents of Luxembourg (natives and foreign nationals). Propensity score matching is used to ensure the balanced composition of the control group and treated group with regard to the observed covariates. The results reveal that vulnerable foreign nationals demonstrated lower perceptions of immigration-related threats after the escalation of the crisis than their pre-crisis counterparts. No significant effect of the escalation of the crisis was found among Luxembourg nationals.     

城市废弃物资源化共生网络脆弱性影响机制——基于SCP与CAS融合的分析视角

在内外因素的交互干扰下,城市废弃物资源化共生网络表现得格外脆弱,探寻其脆弱性的理论内涵、影响因素及其作用机制是开展脆弱性治理的前提。借鉴复杂系统脆弱性理论,从能力和绩效两个角度解析其理论内涵,指出系统脆弱性在能力上可以用敏感性、适应性和恢复力予以刻画,在绩效上表现为增值性不强、共享性不足和生态性不佳。通过梳理国内外研究文献,从共生单元、网络结构、共生机制、网络氛围和环境不确定性5个维度提炼出脆弱性影响因素;以网络动态能力为结合点,将SCP（Structure Conduct Performance）和CAS（Complexity Adaptive System）两种理论有机融合,构建一个以共生单元素质、网络结构特征、共生机制属性、政策有效性为外因变量,以网络动态能力为中介变量,以网络脆弱性为结果变量,以网络氛围和环境不确定性为调节变量的理论框架。未来可利用大样本调查方法对该理论框架进行实证检验,探讨城市废弃物资源化共生网络脆弱性的形成机理。