试析美国高等教育中的学分制及其借鉴意义

学分制是美国高等教育系统中普遍使用的衡量高校学术工作的行之有效的手段。本文对学分制在美国高等教育体制中产生的历史、发展过程及应用的范围进行了分析、探讨, 并给予了客观的评价, 最后指出了它对于中国高等教育学术管理体制的借鉴意义, 并提出了几点个人的建议。     

Uncertain Numbers and Uncertainty in the Selection of Input Distributions—Consequences for a Probabilistic Risk Assessment of Contaminated Land

Risks from exposure to contaminated land are often assessed with the aid of mathematical models. The current probabilistic approach is a considerable improvement on previous deterministic risk assessment practices, in that it attempts to characterize uncertainty and variability. However, some inputs continue to be assigned as precise numbers, while others are characterized as precise probability distributions. Such precision is hard to justify, and we show in this article how rounding errors and distribution assumptions can affect an exposure assessment. The outcome of traditional deterministic point estimates and Monte Carlo simulations were compared to probability bounds analyses. Assigning all scalars as imprecise numbers (intervals prescribed by significant digits) added uncertainty to the deterministic point estimate of about one order of magnitude. Similarly, representing probability distributions as probability boxes added several orders of magnitude to the uncertainty of the probabilistic estimate. This indicates that the size of the uncertainty in such assessments is actually much greater than currently reported. The article suggests that full disclosure of the uncertainty may facilitate decision making in opening up a negotiation window. In the risk analysis process, it is also an ethical obligation to clarify the boundary between the scientific and social domains.     

物业管理体制探讨

物业管理体制是物业管理产业发展的核心问题。目前我国的物业管理体制比较混乱 ,物业管理机制职责不清 ,业主委员会作用未得到发挥 ,物业管理公司的独立性差、依赖性强。物业管理体制存在问题的原因是多方面的 ,解决的对策是加快物业管理的法制建设 ,建立以业主为中心的物业管理体制 ,把物业管理推向市场     

Confidence Intervals for Current Status Data

Abstract.  The likelihood ratio statistic for testing pointwise hypotheses about the survival time distribution in the current status model can be inverted to yield confidence intervals (CIs). One advantage of this procedure is that CIs can be formed without estimating the unknown parameters that figure in the asymptotic distribution of the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) of the distribution function. We discuss the likelihood ratio-based CIs for the distribution function and the quantile function and compare these intervals to several different intervals based on the MLE. The quantiles of the limiting distribution of the MLE are estimated using various methods including parametric fitting, kernel smoothing and subsampling techniques. Comparisons are carried out both for simulated data and on a data set involving time to immunization against rubella. The comparisons indicate that the likelihood ratio-based intervals are preferable from several perspectives.     

中国企业经营国际化策略探析

本文从认识国际化的现状到分析国际化的未来发展及趋势,着重分析了中国在国际化的这条道路上已开创了怎样的一个局面和国际化策略在未来中国的发展中面临的问题及其解决方法。认为,中国政府应采用适当的倾斜政策,重点扶持一批优势行业和“龙头企业”,使它们能率先具备国际竞争的实力,制定并实施跨国公司战略,同时,中国企业在国际化经营中要放弃急功近利的思想。     

从心理学的角度看新时期高校德育的构建

本文从心理学的角度分析了传统德育在当前社会条件下的局限性,试从心理健康教育的角度构建新的高校德育观(生活性德育、主体性德育、协作性德育、发展性德育),并提出高校德育的三个心理层目标:培养学生确立协作型的人际关系、培养学生发展坚强和成熟的自我、培养学生构筑正确的价值评估体系。     

《村集体经济组织会计制度》的经济学分析

《村集体经济组织会计制度》已颁布实施,其对农村经济和社会的效用大小标志着该制度成功与否。从宏观经济学角度分析,在变迁过程中,尽管会发生一系列的变革成本和运行成本,但新制度的效用是无法替代的,它促使了社会总财富的增加。从制度经济学角度分析,提高农民素质、发展农村文化以改善农村制度大环境以及完善该制度的监督机制与惩罚机制是新制度发挥效用的重要条件。     

晋察冀边区的“三三制”村政权建设

村政权是抗日民主政权的基石。晋察冀边区经1938-1940年村政建设,广大乡村实现了由村长制到村民委员会制的过渡,大批抗日人士走上了村长的岗位。为推进全民族抗战和边区民主建政进程,1941年之后的晋察冀边区村选贯彻了"三三制"思想,在更加扩大的民主范围和统一战线的基础上进行村政建设。村级抗日民主政权的"三三制"建设,表明中国共产党人政权观日渐成熟。它适应了全民族总动员的抗日斗争的客观需要,适应中国社会阶级构成"两头小中间大"的国情,使各抗日阶级、阶层、党派代表进入基层抗日民主政权的领导,行使议政从政的权利,促进了乡村社会治理,从而极大地激发了乡村民众的抗日救国积极性,为夺取抗日战争的胜利发挥了十分重要的作用,为解放区和新中国成立后村政建设积累了经验,树立起了"模型"。     

Measuring credibility of compensatory preference statements when trade-offs are interval determined

This paper studies how an overall fuzzy preference relation can be constructed in the compensatory context of the simple additive difference model, when imprecision on the trade-offs has to be taken into account. Three credibility indices of preferences are analysed and illustrated by a numerical example. Arguments are presented supporting the use of the third index, for which an interesting transitivity property (which was an open problem) is proved.     

Any complete preference structure without circuit admits an interval representation

This article proves that all complete preference structures where the strict preference relation (P) has no circuit admit a representation by intervals of the real line; the rule for deciding whether an interval is indifferent or preferred to another is less straightforward than for interval orders: strict preference is indeed compatible with a certain degree of overlapping of intervals, the allowed degree being specified by means of a so-called tolerance function.