Parental unemployment and children's educational attainment: How big is the role of aspirations?

Children exposed to parental unemployment have been found to lag behind in school, but research has struggled to pin down the underlying explanation. One hypothesis is that parental unemployment may dampen children's aspirations to do well and go far in school. Yet, few studies on parental unemployment have relied on actual measures of children's aspirations or devised a formal analysis of this mechanism. Using the UK Household Longitudinal Study (Waves 1–12, N = 1067), I investigate the role of educational aspirations in children's General Certificate of Secondary Education (GCSE) attainment. I compare adolescents exposed to parental unemployment before or only after the typical age at which GCSE exams are taken. In adjusted models, children exposed to parental unemployment before their GCSEs are around 6 percentage points less likely to attain any GCSE qualification by age 17. On average, children have high educational aspirations, although intentions to enrol in college or university are relatively lower among children exposed to an early spell of parental unemployment. Nevertheless, a hypothetical intervention setting these aspirations to the same level for all children only accounts for a modest portion of the educational penalty tied to an early spell of parental unemployment. Several sensitivity and robustness tests support this conclusion. This note seeks to stimulate more research on the mechanisms underpinning the intergenerational effects of unemployment. Findings cast doubts on the idea that children's aspirations, the target of broader policy discourse and interventions, are a crucial part of the equation.     

法律环境对银行不良贷款回收的影响机制研究

不良贷款回收是商业银行服务实体经济、提高资产质量的重要环节。部分企业由于法律意识薄弱，违约后受到的惩罚力度低，故意逃废债，加剧了不良贷款的风险累积。可见地区法律环境在不良贷款的回收中起着重要作用。本文基于某全国性商业银行的企业不良贷款回收数据，运用中介效应检验模型，研究了法律环境对不良贷款回收的影响机制和路径。结果发现，法律环境对不良贷款的回收有显著正向影响。对规模较大的企业，法律保护的作用显著；对规模较小的企业，法律执行的作用显著。法律保护通过贷前约束机制作用于回收率，抵押和担保的中介路径效应显著；法律执行通过贷后监管机制作用于回收率，失信被执行人的中介路径效应显著。银行在业务中要考虑地区法律环境制定相应的贷款审批和回收要求，政府需要从法律保护和法律执行两方面营造更好的法律环境，从而提高不良贷款回收率。     

Income inequality,cultural capital,and high school students' academic achievement in OECD countries: A moderated mediation analysis

This study examines how social context, in this case, income inequality, shapes the role of cultural capital in educational success. First, we revisit the associations between (objectified) cultural capital and academic achievement, and cultural capital's role in mediating the relationship between family SES and academic achievement. More importantly, we explore how national-level income inequality moderates these two relationships. By analyzing a multilevel dataset of 32 OECD countries, a combination of PISA 2018 data and several national indexes, we find that: (1) cultural capital not only has a positive association with students' academic achievement but also acts as a significant mediator of the relationship between family SES and academic achievement in OECD countries; (2) both cultural capital's association with academic achievement and it's mediating role are stronger in more equal countries than in unequal ones. The findings shed new light on understanding how cultural capital shapes intergenerational education inequality across countries with different levels of inequality.     

区域创新与经济高质量发展影响研究*——基于产业结构中介效应的实证检验

区域创新显著促进了经济发展。依据世界银行1995—2019年199个经济体数据,运用中介效应模型和分组检验,构建综合分析框架。研究结果表明:理论上,区域创新可以通过产业结构赋能经济发展。实证上,测度了经济体的区域创新和高质量发展的综合水平,并以各个产业的出口占比刻画了经济体的产业结构,在此基础上进行中介效应分析。区域创新显著促进了经济发展,技术创新、市场创新和组织创新对经济发展具有线性正向关系,产品创新和资源配置创新呈现倒U型结构,这一结论在分组和替代变量等稳健性检验后仍然成立。作用机制的分析显示,区域创新促进技术密集型产业发展,加速了人力资源密集型和自然资源密集型产业的转型与退出。     

Containment measures during the COVID pandemic: The role of non-pharmaceutical health policies

Many countries have imposed a set of non-pharmaceutical health policy interventions in an effort to slow the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic. The objective of this paper is to examine the effects of the interventions, drawing on evidence from the OECD countries. A special feature here is the mechanism that underlies the impact of the containment policies. To this end, a causal mediation analysis decomposing the total effect into a direct and an indirect effect is conducted. The key finding is a dual cause-effect channel. On the one hand, there is a direct effect of the non-pharmaceutical interventions on the various health variables. Beyond this, a quantitatively dominant indirect impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions operating via voluntary changes in social distancing is shown.     

负性生活事件对高职学前专业学生主观幸福感的影响及链式中介效应分析

为深入剖析负性生活事件对高职学前专业学生主观幸福感的影响，并探讨反刍思维、心理韧性在负性生活事件与主观幸福感之间的链式中介作用，笔者选取贵州省、广西省、四川省五所高职高专院校2152名高职学前专业学生作为调查对象，采用负性生活事件量表、反刍思维量表、心理韧性量表以及主观幸福感量表进行问卷调查。结果表明：1）高职学前专业学生的负性生活事件平均得分为1.83，其中重度负性生活事件（4-5分）占比2.5%，中度负性生活事件（2-4分）占比28.6%，轻度负性生活事件（1-2分）占比68.9%。主观幸福感平均得分为4.52，其中高水平主观幸福感（5-7分）占比24.6%，中度水平主观幸福感（3-5分）为占比72.8%，低水平主观幸福感（1-3分）占比2.6%。2）男生在负性生活事件得分上高于女生，差异具有统计学意义（P＜0.05）。3）生活负性事件对主观幸福感的影响通过三条中介效应实现：反刍思维中介作用（39.1%），心理韧性的中介作用（20.5%），反刍思维与心理韧性的链式中介作用（19.6%）。     

环境传播视角下新媒体对河长制议题的建构与调解

河长制作为环境议题,在新媒体环境下,牵扯到多种行动者之间的复杂联动关系.研究选取三类新媒体平台作为研究对象,以实际资料为基础,将人民网、中国生态文明网和微博大V的河长制议题报道作为样本,以实际资料为基础建立一个研究模型,探讨三类河长制议题建构过程的现状与问题,分析新媒体对河长制议题进行建构的过程.研究发现,3个新媒体行动主体的议题建构能力和方式相互补充,各有侧重.新媒体作为媒介行动者,应扮演调解感知角色和行使调解行为的功能,更好发挥自身功能,从而使得多元行动者的行动得以协调,推动河长制议题的有效建构和传播.     

Linking neighbourhood safety and children's internalizing and externalizing problems: Mediating role of maternal depression

This study examined the relationship among neighbourhood safety, maternal depression and child behaviour problems among Korean children in South Korea. Using the 2019 Panel Study on Korean Children (N = 1127), we found that residing in less safe neighbourhoods was associated with higher levels of internalizing and externalizing problems. Additionally, results from mediation analysis showed that the relationships between neighbourhood safety and internalizing and externalizing problems were significantly mediated by maternal depression in South Korea. These findings suggest that maternal depression may be an important mechanism linking unsafe neighbourhoods to South Korean children's behaviour problems.     

论电子商务环境下我国协商与调解制度的改革与完善

在网络时代,我国协商与调解制度要适应电子商务争议解决的需要,并更好地融入我国法制现代化和国际化的潮流,需从以下两个方面进行改革与完善:推进协商与调解制度的规范化、法制化;拓展和提升在线协商与调解服务.     

家事调解与社会工作:区分与融合

家事调解从其产生时起就与社会工作之间有着颇多的关联与渊源。 随着家事调解发展成为一 个独立的专业,其与社会工作之间有了一定的专业界限和区分。 但是从家事调解主流模式的发展和特点 来看,无论是伦理和价值观念,还是干预模式和方法,家事调解都融入了越来越多的社会工作元素;而调 解技术的训练和实践也能提升社会工作服务品质。 两个专业之间的相互滋养给双方都带来了许多益处, 因此家事调解与社会工作的融合既是趋势所向,也是需求所在。 从我国目前的情况来看,家事调解与社 会工作的融合趋势已现,进一步的发展则需要更多的跨界合作和专业之间更深的融合。