二维Frenkel激子有效质量与温度的关系

本文计及晶格的原子结构讨论了二维Frenkel激子的性质。用二次量子化方法处理晶格振动及其与激子的相互作用,导出了二维Frenkel激子的自陷能以及它的有效质量与温度的关系。     

路径选择:我国非法证据排除规则的有效运行

要想使得非法证据排除规则能够在我国的刑事诉讼中得以有效实施,需要注意以下相应配套机制的完善:促使我国刑事诉讼从侦查本位主义向审判中心主义转变;建立专门的程序性裁判程序;完善相应的程序性辩护制度。     

少数民族公民有效政治参与的影响因素及其实现途径--对西部民族地区的一项实证分析

少数民族公民有效政治参与对保障我国社会、政治稳定具有重要的现实意义。研究从宏观、微观两个方面对西部民族地区公民政治参与现状以及存在的问题进行了显性、隐性分析 ,并在此基础上探讨了少数民族公民有效政治参与的目标 ,提出了解决问题和达到目标的具体措施和机制。     

“单元政治冶:国家与社会有效治理的空间形态与规模研究

当前,大量学者认为较小的“基本单元冶有利于村民自治的实现。 而基本单元的形成是国家权力和社会认同共同作用的结果,其有效性取决于治理主体是否独立、治理规则是否具有公共性、治理秩序是否能够有效供给三个维度。 在现代民族国家建构过程中,我国并未经历西方血缘单元解体的过程,基本单元的确立既受到传统血缘关系的影响,也受国家建构的影响,因此存在“较小规模冶与“较大规模冶之争。 以“行政村冶为基本单元开展村民自治尽管存在规模过大,内生性不足等问题,但是其所依赖的治理主体、治理规则更加符合现代治理的需要。 当前在以自然村或村民小组这一较小基本单元挖掘传统治理要素过程中仍然应注意其可能面临的治理主体独立性缺乏,治理规则公共性不足等限度。     

人民币与国外主要货币的尾部相依和联动

文章选择1994年1月到2014年11月的人民币、美元、英镑、日元、欧元和港币等六种货币实际有效汇率的月度数据,首先采用AR-GARCH-t过程对收益率进行过滤,然后运用规则藤Copula函数对标准化残差序列进行建模,探讨人民币“第一次汇改”前后六种汇率之间的波动溢出效应,研究汇率之间的尾部相依和联动现象。研究发现：“第一次汇改”前后,人民币与其它五种货币实际有效汇率之间的相依结构发生了变化,且联动中的主导货币也由美元变为以人民币,但仍可用同一类型的规则藤Copula结构来描述;人民币与其它货币之间都存在对称的或非对称的尾部相依,其中人民币与日元之间存在对称的负尾部相依,而与欧元之间则存在负的上尾部相依。“第一次汇改”后,人民币与美元实际有效汇率之间正的尾部相依程度有所增加,且相依性最大,而港币与美元之间正的尾部相依性有较大幅度的下降。此外,人民币与日元之间负的尾部相依关系也有较大幅度的下降。     

江苏省机构养老床位总量不足和供需结构失衡问题分析

经过社会调查和综合比较发现,江苏省在社会化养老服务方面存在机构养老床位总量不足和严重的供需结构失衡问题。政府养老服务投入不足和投入方式不合理;养老服务产业对民间资本缺乏吸引力以及现有养老机构服务质量偏低;老年人消费能力低和受传统家庭养老观念影响成为制约江苏老龄服务产业健康发展的三大因素。建议消除认识误区、排除制度性障碍、纠正服务定位偏差,加快老龄服务产业的发展。     

对综合评价方法中指数功效函数的一种改进探讨

摘　　要:本文讨论了几种常用的综合评价方法,总结了这些方法的特点和适用条件。通过对这些综合评价方法的研究,尤其是对功效函数法进一步的对比分析后,对其中的指数功效函数进行了改进,改进后的方法具有更优良的数学性质和经济涵义,更适合于社会经济指标体系综合评价指数的编制。     

A large-scale initiative to disseminate an evidence-based drug abuse prevention program in Italy: Lessons learned for practitioners and researchers

Across developed countries, experimentation with alcohol, tobacco, and other drugs often begins in the early adolescent years. Several evidence-based programs have been developed to prevent adolescent substance use. Many of the most rigorously tested and empirically supported prevention programs were initially developed and tested in the United States. Increasingly, these interventions are being adopted for use in Europe and throughout the world. This paper reports on a large-scale comprehensive initiative designed to select, adapt, implement, and sustain an evidence-based drug abuse prevention program in Italy. As part of a large-scale regionally funded collaboration in the Lombardy region of Italy, we report on processes through which a team of stakeholders selected, translated and culturally adapted, planned, implemented and evaluated the Life Skills Training (LST) school-based drug abuse prevention program, an evidence-based intervention developed in the United States. We discuss several challenges and lessons learned and implications for prevention practitioners and researchers attempting to undertake similar international dissemination projects. We review several published conceptual models designed to promote the replication and widespread dissemination of effective programs, and discuss their strengths and limitations in the context of planning and implementing a complex, large-scale real-world dissemination effort.     

不同阶段人民币汇率的价格传导机制分析

 人民币汇率的变动对国内价格变动是否存在传导作用，这种传导是否存在阶段性，是研究人民币汇率变动与国内价格变动之间关系的重要内容，是从宏观上进行物价水平控制必须明确的重要问题之一。本文从实证的角度研究中国的汇率传递及其对价格变动的影响。结合中国实际情况，运用最新数据，将汇率变动分为三个阶段，用VAR模型进行分析，通过脉冲响应函数和方差分解的方法，发现人民币价格传递效应在不同阶段存在较大差异，且存在时滞，效应也是不完全的。     

An improved Cp criterion for spline smoothing

Spline smoothing is a popular technique for curve fitting, in which selection of the smoothing parameter is crucial. Many methods such as Mallows’ C_p, generalized maximum likelihood (GML), and the extended exponential (EE) criterion have been proposed to select this parameter. Although C_p is shown to be asymptotically optimal, it is usually outperformed by other selection criteria for small to moderate sample sizes due to its high variability. On the other hand, GML and EE are more stable than C_p, but they do not possess the same asymptotic optimality as C_p. Instead of selecting this smoothing parameter directly using C_p, we propose to select among a small class of selection criteria based on Stein's unbiased risk estimate (SURE). Due to the selection effect, the spline estimate obtained from a criterion in this class is nonlinear. Thus, the effective degrees of freedom in SURE contains an adjustment term in addition to the trace of the smoothing matrix, which cannot be ignored in small to moderate sample sizes. The resulting criterion, which we call adaptive C_p, is shown to have an analytic expression, and hence can be efficiently computed. Moreover, adaptive C_p is not only demonstrated to be superior and more stable than commonly used selection criteria in a simulation study, but also shown to possess the same asymptotic optimality as C_p.