Posterior analysis of the compound Rayleigh distribution under balanced loss functions for censored data

This paper develops Bayesian analysis in the context of progressively Type II censored data from the compound Rayleigh distribution. The maximum likelihood and Bayes estimates along with associated posterior risks are derived for reliability performances under balanced loss functions by assuming continuous priors for parameters of the distribution. A practical example is used to illustrate the estimation methods. A simulation study has been carried out to compare the performance of estimates. The study indicates that Bayesian estimation should be preferred over maximum likelihood estimation. In Bayesian estimation, the balance general entropy loss function can be effectively employed for optimal decision-making.     

Costs of Health Damage from Atmospheric Emissions of Toxic Metals: Part 2—Analysis for Mercury and Lead

In this part of the series we explain the detailed literature review and the calculations of impacts and damage costs of mercury and lead. Methodology and general assumptions are explained in the companion article, Part 1 of this series, and the spreadsheet with the calculations is available as a supplementary file of Part 1.³ For mercury, the damage cost is 22,937 €₂₀₁₃/kg if there is a no‐effect threshold, 52,129 €₂₀₁₃/kg if there is none; 91% is due to mortality from heart disease, the rest from loss of IQ points. For lead, the damage cost is 29,343 €₂₀₁₃/kg, about 80% due to mortality and 20% due to IQ loss; there does not seem to be a no‐effect threshold. These costs are per kg of emitted pollutant.     

公式化语言对当今大学英语写作的启示

以公式化语言的理论依据为基础,通过问卷调查的方法,剖析当前我国大学英语写作教学中存在的误区,探究其产生的原因,并提出公式化语言教学对提高大学生英语写作水平的实际作用,使学生能够真正掌握准确的、规范的、地道的英语写作技能。     

话语标记语Alright在英文口语中的话语结构功能——以美剧《Friends》(第一季)为例

话语标记的语篇组织功能强调交际主体对交际语篇的关注;语境顺应功能强调交际主体对交际语境的关注;人际互动功能则强调交际主体对交际对象的关注。话语标记语Alright在不同的语境里也分别具备这三大功能。在美国电视剧《Friends》(第一季)中,Alright在发挥语篇组织功能和语境顺应功能的同时,也在发挥着向另一交际主体作出提示和引导的人际互动功能,而当话语标记在发挥人际互动功能的同时也在对不断变化的语境假设做出顺应性反应。     

家庭功能与大学生生活满意感关系研究

家庭是大学生健康快乐成长的重要环境。目前学界主要侧重于考察家庭结构与大学生生活满意感的关系,而对于家庭功能对大学生生活满意感的影响却鲜有深入探讨。通过文献梳理、定性与定量研究可知：家庭功能包括家庭沟通、互动协调、情感联系和家庭冲突等四个维度,它对大学生生活满意感具有显著的正向影响。虽然大学生们总体感觉家庭功能良好,但相比较而言,大学生生活满意感状况却不甚乐观。因此,高校和学生家长应建立联动机制,不断完善家庭功能,以提高大学生生活满意感和幸福感。     

浅析高校学生公寓信息化管理育人功能拓展

针对目前高校学生公寓管理模式存在的问题和缺陷,提出加强高校学生公寓管理的信息化建设,应充分发挥计算机管理系统的高速、便捷、存储量大、保密性好等优势。同时,文章强调高校学生公寓的育人功能,包括学生人际交往功能、学生公寓心理健康教育功能、网络道德教育功能等,可以通过多样化大学生自我管理、多样化教育等方法和途径得到拓展。     

演说中的冗余现象及其语用修辞功能分析

以名人演说中选出的20篇鼓动型演说为语料来源,对演说中所采用的冗余现象进行分类,并进一步探讨冗余现象在演说中的语用修辞功能,指出我们应该重视对语言冗余现象的分析,充分认识和研究冗余现象的种种利弊,使冗余理论在教学中发挥积极作用,从而更好地提高教学质量。     

Sampling Adjusted Analysis of Dynamic Additive Regression Models for Longitudinal Data

We consider a modelling approach to longitudinal data that aims at estimating flexible covariate effects in a model where the sampling probabilities are modelled explicitly. The joint modelling yields simple estimators that are easy to compute and analyse, even if the sampling of the longitudinal responses interacts with the response level. An incorrect model for the sampling probabilities results in biased estimates. Non-representative sampling occurs, for example, if patients with an extreme development (based on extreme values of the response) are called in for additional examinations and measurements. We allow covariate effects to be time-varying or time-constant. Estimates of covariate effects are obtained by solving martingale equations locally for the cumulative regression functions. Using Aalen's additive model for the sampling probabilities, we obtain simple expressions for the estimators and their asymptotic variances. The asymptotic distributions for the estimators of the non-parametric components as well as the parametric components of the model are derived drawing on general martingale results. Two applications are presented. We consider the growth of cystic fibrosis patients and the prothrombin index for liver cirrhosis patients. The conclusion about the growth of the cystic fibrosis patients is not altered when adjusting for a possible non-representativeness in the sampling, whereas we reach substantively different conclusions about the treatment effect for the liver cirrhosis patients.     

从管理到治理——近十年来社会管理研究综述

改革开放以来,我国社会面貌发生了巨大变化,社会管理体制改革不断深入,党的十八届三中全会也正式将“社会管理”改为“社会治理”。在中国社会转型过程中,众多学者对社会管理创新诸多方面进行多角度研究,取得了丰硕的研究成果,加深了社会各阶层对社会管理体制改革的理解。他们对社会管理的内涵、研究领域等进行了界定,对管理体制机制改革的原因、方法等进行了探讨,对从“一元管理”到“多元治理”的社会治理方式转变的发展脉络以及其反映的社会背景和社会思想进行了剖析。     

学术语篇的主要人际资源及其功能

学术语篇研究已从客观描写转向功能解释。从功能角度出发将学术语篇中常见人际资源分为交互性、认知性和评价性成份三类。交互性资源为第一人称代词;认知性资源主要包括情态动词、情态附加成份、认知形容词、认知名词和过程动词等;评价性资源主要有语篇成份、解释性标记和句型结构等。此三类资源在构建人际交互性学术语篇过程中发挥了重要作用。鉴于此,学术论文写作及教学应抛弃对绝对科学客观性的传统追求,重视作者与读者之间的人际互动,恰当运用种种语言资源有效达成学术语篇的开放性和协商性。