缅北动荡局势下我国边境安全应对刍议

缅北动荡局势下，我国中缅边境地区面临传统安全与非传统安全双重威胁。从前期系列缅北冲突导致的问题处理经验看，我国中缅边境地区安全应对体系建设在预防意识的主动性、应急制度的协调性、应急体系的系统性方面仍有待进一步提升。立足中缅边境地区安全问题的特殊性，其应对可从立足跨境民族众多的实情主动应对、立足边境安全事件的复杂性系统应对、立足边疆经济的落后性持续应对等方面予以加强。     

When Does Poor Governance Presage Biosecurity Risk?

Border inspection, and the challenge of deciding which of the tens of millions of consignments that arrive should be inspected, is a perennial problem for regulatory authorities. The objective of these inspections is to minimize the risk of contraband entering the country. As an example, for regulatory authorities in charge of biosecurity material, consignments of goods are classified before arrival according to their economic tariff number. This classification, perhaps along with other information, is used as a screening step to determine whether further biosecurity intervention, such as inspection, is necessary. Other information associated with consignments includes details such as the country of origin, supplier, and importer, for example. The choice of which consignments to inspect has typically been informed by historical records of intercepted material. Fortunately for regulators, interception is a rare event; however, this sparsity undermines the utility of historical records for deciding which containers to inspect. In this article, we report on an analysis that uses more detailed information to inform inspection. Using quarantine biosecurity as a case study, we create statistical profiles using generalized linear mixed models and compare different model specifications with historical information alone, demonstrating the utility of a statistical modeling approach. We also demonstrate some graphical model summaries that provide managers with insight into pathway governance.     

论近代川边治理与国防安全：从赵尔丰到刘文辉

风云激荡的近代“川边”，历任主政者的川边治理成效殊异：赵尔丰籍“平康三策”，锐意进取，开拓出广阔的川边境域，成功践行“固川保藏”方略。尹昌衡藉个人英雄主义维持短暂的绚烂；其后走马灯式的镇守使无法掌控川边局势，失地溃败；颇具政治韬略的刘文辉，妥善处理民族关系，稳固川边，促使西康成功建省。34年的川边治理为现代西南边疆治理留下了鲜活的经验教训，川滇藏结合部需要新的边疆治理统筹。     

Investigating the differential mobility experiences of Chinese cross-border students

Recent migration studies have adopted the lens of mobility to examine the stratifying effects of border policies, but few investigate the differential mobility of migrant families and children. This paper aims to contribute to the migration literature by considering the interplay between border policies, family configurations, and differential mobility. We apply the lens of differential mobility to the experiences of Chinese cross-border pupils – young child migrants with Hong Kong permanent residency who reside in Shenzhen, China, and cross the border to attend school. We begin by describing shifts in Hong Kong’s border and immigration policies since 1997, which have created a typology of families differentiated by mixed status, citizenship rights, and mobility. We then turn to four case studies of students with unequal border-crossing experiences to elucidate how border control constrains or promotes family mobility and perpetuates inequalities.     

广西沿边"适应-竞争-合作"式 城镇演化模式研究 ——以凭祥、东兴为例

新时代不充分不平衡发展问题突出，加大力度支持边疆民族地区加快发展的要求迫在眉睫。广西沿边民族地区发展总体滞后，城镇发展模式趋同；东兴和凭祥在沿边城镇发展模式趋同的情况下，在“适应-竞争-合作”式城镇演化过程中，充分利用国家政策、发挥比较优势、培育优势特色产业、深化内外合作，实现了城镇经济的跨越式发展。本文以生物学“趋同进化”理论为基础，结合新发展理念和东兴、凭祥的发展经验建议：广西沿边民族地区采取“适应-竞争-合作”式城镇发展模式，以创新增强各城镇内生动力，以互补合作促进协调发展，以绿色发展道路助推城镇发展的可持续性，以加强内外市场的联动性来深化城镇开放、合作式发展，以“省-市-县”、“县-镇-村”的互联互通推进共享发展。     

抗战时期陕甘宁边区学前教育建设的经验与启示

抗战时期，陕甘宁边区在中国共产党的领导下进行了独具特色的学前教育建设活动，形成了独特的建设经验，主要包括提供保障措施、建立精简高效的组织架构、注重保教队伍的建设、关爱幼儿的身体健康、开展科学的教育教学工作。重现边区学前教育活动，探寻其成功经验，继承与发扬红色教育精神，对新时期幼儿的培养与培育有积极的现实指导意义。     

Stretching the borders: how international business travel affects the work–family balance

This study examined the consequences of international business travel for the balance between work–family domains by exploring how international business travellers and travellers’ partners manage the boundaries between work and family in order to maintain the balance. Interpretative phenomenological analysis was used in analysing the semi-structured interviews of 10 male travellers and 10 partners. Because of its irregular nature, international business travel affects the personal life and the family of business travellers. Work-related travel also has an impact on how travellers and their partners construct, manage and negotiate borders between work and family in order to avoid an imbalance between these domains. Integration of work and family is usually inevitable in international business traveler families. Integration may lead to role blurring and thus lead to imbalance.     

制度建设何以促进边疆民族地区社会稳定——从价值功用到建构逻辑

党的十九届四中全会指明了国家治理体系和治理能力现代化的发展方向和战略要求。边疆民族地区作为国家治理体系重要的组成部分,其社会稳定直接关乎于国家发展和民族团结,具有鲜明的政治意义。在一定意义上讲,通过制度建设来促进边疆民族地区社会稳定,是实现边疆民族地区优良治理的最佳策略。制度体系因其结构特征和构成逻辑所显现的耦合效应、嵌套关系、吸纳能力可以在相当程度上满足边疆民族地区社会稳定治理实践的现实需求,使其更好地融入"一带一路"发展机遇之中。制度建设之于促进边疆民族地区社会稳定的价值功用主要体现于:制度建设不仅可以有效化解社会矛盾,而且可以形塑社会秩序基本样貌。也因此,实现边疆民族地区社会稳定的制度建构应该着眼于:以制度创新激发经济发展新活力、以民族区域自治制度凝聚政治信任、以制度资源推进认同整合、以制度吸纳促进少数民族代表人士参与协同治理。这既是化解边疆民族地区社会矛盾、维护社会稳定的制度性策略,也是充分释放中国特色社会主义制度优势,推进边疆民族地区治理体系和治理能力现代化的制度建构逻辑。     

经济学人对中欧班列发展及影响的判断*

2019年5月《中国经济学人》杂志围绕中欧班列对“一带一路”倡议建设、中—欧亚国际贸易发展、跨境电商发展以及我国产业升级四个方面的影响对经济学人展开了问卷调查。结果显示,多数经济学人认为：首先,中欧班列与“一带一路”倡议能够形成良好互促关系,但沿线国家间安全信任度低是制约这种关系发展的最主要因素;其次,中欧班列对我国（尤其是大西北地区）国际贸易总量有净增长效应,利于改善中欧贸易失衡,但这也面临通关效率低下及由欧洲对华高技术产品出口管制所导致的回程率低等问题的困扰;再次,运输成本低廉的中欧班列为跨境电商发展提供了有利条件,但其运输时间较长影响了其促进作用的发挥;最后,中欧班列虽然能够通过优化产业布局促进我国（尤其是西部地区）产业升级,但也存在对高技术产业带动作用小及由班列恶性竞争对产业技术创新资源挤出等问题。     

中央政府支持边远地区的经济项目在立项设计、效益评估方面所涉及到的各种因素

本文从建国后中央政府支持的边远地区经济项目的得与失出发,阐述了这些项目设计立项时应当考虑的各种因素及效益评估办法。