Custom Epoch Estimation for Surveys

The paper provides a method for generating epoch estimates for time series survey data, allowing for different periods of time (or even point estimates) according to user demand. The method uses a modified kriging estimator, which suppresses the contribution of sampling error variability in order to guarantee that custom epoch estimates have an interpolation property. For the veteran population variable of the American Community Survey, we utilize a simple Brownian Motion model of the population process and derive the modified kriging estimator for this case. The tuning parameters of this population model can be calibrated to the data via simple formulas. We illustrate the application of this method to the generation of point estimates of veteran population, an important objective for Veterans Affairs.     

Adherence to three different strategies to prevent early onset GBS infection in newborns

ProblemDespite the introduction of preventive guidelines, no decrease in the incidence of early onset infection was observed.BackgroundEarly onset group B streptococcal (EOGBS) infection is an important cause of neonatal morbidity and mortality.AimOur study was conducted to determine adherence to three guideline-based group B streptococcus (GBS) preventive strategies.MethodsA prospective experimental study clustered by obstetric collaboration region was performed between March 2013 and August 2014 among midwives, obstetricians and paediatricians in the Netherlands. At baseline, the three regions operated according to the Dutch preventive strategy (founded on the risk-based strategy) in order to prevent EOGBS infection, whereas in the study period they followed either the risk-based, the combination or the Dutch strategy. Adherence was measured prospectively per pregnant woman, using predefined core elements of each preventive strategy: identification of risk factors, maternal GBS screening, application of intrapartum antibiotic prophylaxis and observation of the child. Data about adherence to the core elements were collected from medical records, maternal questionnaires and laboratory test results.FindingsIn the three regions, a total of 121 care providers and 1562 women participated.We found an overall adherence of 90% to the risk-based strategy, 57% to the combination strategy and 89% to the Dutch strategy. Adherence to a strategy in case women had EOGBS risk factors was below 20% in all strategies.DiscussionThe majority of women with EOGBS risk factors did not receive the care prescribed by any of three preventive strategies and were not treated optimally.ConclusionThe risk-based and the Dutch strategy are the recommended strategies for implementation.     

ALL-BIAS DESIGNS FOR POLYNOMIAL SPLINE REGRESSION MODELS

Polynomial spline regression models of low degree have proved useful in modeling responses from designed experiments in science and engineering when simple polynomial models are inadequate. Where there is uncertainty in the number and location of the knots, or breakpoints, of the spline, then designs that minimize the systematic errors resulting from model misspecification may be appropriate. This paper gives a method for constructing such all‐bias designs for a single variable spline when the distinct knots in the assumed and true models come from some specified set. A class of designs is defined in terms of the inter‐knot intervals and sufficient conditions are obtained for a design within this class to be all‐bias under linear, quadratic and cubic spline models. An example of the construction of all‐bias designs is given.     

B2C电子商务败因:创新范式研究

B2C电子商务的发展经历了泡沫-失败-复苏的周期,深刻分析其失败的原因,对于今后B2C的发展是有指导意义的。B2C商务模式是一种创新行为,B2C的失败是一种创新行为的失败。本文采用创新理论框架对其失败的原因进行分析。     

用于1553总线控制器的存储管理单元设计

从消息队列的数据存储结构定义、存储空间规划和控制过程设计三方面讨论了MIL-STD-1553/1773总线控制器的设计实现。在总线控制器的模块化设计方案中,这三个方面构成了总线控制器的核心模块棗存储管理单元,应用该方案可实现具有多消息自动处理功能的总线控制器。     

数值解法中的单元形状函数技巧

本文介绍从一组互不相关的函数中推导数值法中单元形状函数的简便而有效的算法,以特定的一维内插方法导出各种二维、三维的内插方法,它们对奇异性的模拟是有益的;为了适用于延伸到无限远的单元,假设形状函数类似于Lagrange多项式,但包含了一个按指数衰减的项。     

具扩充Jacobi结点的Lagrange插值逼近

研究了以扩充Jacobi多项式(1+x)Vn(x)的零点为基点的Lagrange插值多项式Ln(f,x)逼近/k)的一些问题.     

基于NET的C/S与B/S混合结构的MIS开发研究

以实际开发经验为基础,介绍了.NET技术特别是VB.NET技术以及ADO.NET、Crystalreports报表技术等在C/S与B/S混合结构管理信息系统开发中的理论与应用。     

Influence diagnostics and outlier tests for semiparametric mixed models

Summary. Semiparametric mixed models are useful in biometric and econometric applications, especially for longitudinal data. Maximum penalized likelihood estimators (MPLEs) have been shown to work well by Zhang and co-workers for both linear coefficients and nonparametric functions. This paper considers the role of influence diagnostics in the MPLE by extending the case deletion and subject deletion analysis of linear models to accommodate the inclusion of a nonparametric component. We focus on influence measures for the fixed effects and provide formulae that are analogous to those for simpler models and readily computable with the MPLE algorithm. We also establish an equivalence between the case or subject deletion model and a mean shift outlier model from which we derive tests for outliers. The influence diagnostics proposed are illustrated through a longitudinal hormone study on progesterone and a simulated example.     

叶芝诗歌创作中的东方神秘主义

叶芝诗歌以东方神秘主义的象征著称于世。玫瑰、狮身人面怪、天鹅和螺旋是叶芝诗歌中具有凸现主题意义的意象。其来源有二 ,对《旧约圣经》抒情诗风格的继承是叶芝诗歌抒情性的直接来源 ,东方神秘主义思想指导下的对中国和日本诗歌的模仿学习是叶芝诗歌抒情性的间接来源