Translating cross-lagged effects into incidence rates and risk ratios: The case of psychosocial safety climate and depression

Longitudinal studies are the gold standard of empirical work and stress research whenever experiments are not plausible. Frequently, scales are used to assess risk factors and their consequences, and cross-lagged effects are estimated to determine possible risks. Methods to translate cross-lagged effects into risk ratios to facilitate risk assessment do not yet exist, which creates a divide between psychological and epidemiological work stress research. The aim of the present paper is to demonstrate how cross-lagged effects can be used to assess the risk ratio of different levels of psychosocial safety climate (PSC) in organisations, an important psychosocial risk for the development of depression. We used available longitudinal evidence from the Australian Workplace Barometer (N?=?1905) to estimate cross-lagged effects of PSC on depression. We applied continuous time modelling to obtain time-scalable cross effects. These were further investigated in a 4-year Monte Carlo simulation, which translated them into 4-year incident rates. Incident rates were determined by relying on clinically relevant 2-year periods of depression. We suggest a critical value of PSC?=?26 (corresponding to ?1.4 SD), which is indicative of more than 100% increased incidents of persistent depressive disorder in 4-year periods compared to average levels of PSC across 4 years.     

Engaging leader – Engaged employees? A cross-lagged study on employee engagement

The goal of this study is to provide a cross-lagged examination of the relationships between engaging leadership, job resources and employee work engagement. We propose a mediation model and we postulate that engaging leadership can increase perceptions of three specific job resources (i.e. autonomy, support from colleagues and opportunities for learning and development) which theoretically correspond to the three facets of engaging leadership (i.e., inspiring, connecting and strengthening, respectively). Subsequently, in keeping with the extant body of Job Demands-Resources (JD-R) research, we link job resources to employee work engagement. Our hypotheses were tested on data collected at two time-points – T1 (N = 759) and T2 (N = 273) –from employees working for a hotel chain in the Netherlands. In line with our expectations, engaging leadership showed a significant cross-lagged relationship with autonomy and support from colleagues, but did not predict learning opportunities and work engagement across time. While we formulated specific hypotheses, we also tested reversed causation relationships. We found no direct effect from engaging leadership on employee work engagement, however, the reversed effect was significant; employee perceptions of engaging leadership were shaped by their own engagement experiences. Importantly, engaged employees at T1 reported more job resources at T2. By providing a cross-lagged examination of our model, we showed that engaging leaders as well as employees’ positive affective state of being engaged, are essential to shaping a resourceful work context. A comprehensive view on the triggers and outcomes of work engagement and engaging leadership is needed, as the traditional unidirectional cause-effect rationale fails to explain how these concepts relate to one another and to employee experiences of job resources.     

四川盆地中三叠世盐盆分布与演化特征研究

四川盆地卤水分布广泛，资源丰富, 早为世人所瞩目，中三叠统雷口坡组是四川盆地最早开采天然气和盐卤的层系之一。根据盆地雷口坡组大量钻井资料研究表明，盆地雷口坡组主要成盐期分别为雷三2 期和雷四2 期，在盆地东部和南部由于受到古隆起的影响，盐岩地层已被剥蚀难以保存，现今盐岩主要分布在开江古隆起和泸州古隆起的西部以及天井山古隆起的南部（华蓥山以西—龙门山以东的川西—川中地区）。印支运动对盆地雷口坡组盐岩在平面的迁移起着十分重要的作用，根据不同时期盐岩统计数据看，两期盐盆在平面上具有向西迁移、叠加的特征，其中川中的GS1 井就钻遇了这两期的盐岩。     

Cognitive abilities,self-efficacy,and financial behavior

This paper investigates the effect of cognitive abilities on financial behavior among older adults. Using the U.S. Health and Retirement Study, I find that cognitive abilities significantly affect financial behavior through two channels: ability and self-efficacy. People with higher cognition scores achieve better financial outcomes. This positive association is especially strong in tasks having high demand of cognitive abilities, which confirms the ability channel of the cognitive ability effect. In addition, there is evidence for the self-efficacy channel as a secondary source of cognitive influence. Lower cognitive abilities decrease people’s sense of self-efficacy, which, in turn, significantly decreases financial management efficiency. The findings have important policy implications, specifically that more effort is needed to assist the growing older population through the cognitive aging process and that noncognitive skills, as a secondary source of influence, also warrant attention.     

谈新时期图书馆员的继续教育

从分析太原理工大学图书馆人员现状入手 ,结合国内外图书馆员继续教育发展状况 ,提出图书馆开展继续教育的具体措施 :进行在职教育和在职培训     

促性腺激素、V_(D_3)、V_E亚硒酸钠对母兔繁殖力的影响

选择成年、健康、未孕母兔 32只 ,随机分成 8组 ,分别给予促性腺激素 (Ⅰ组 )、VD3(Ⅱ组 )、VE 亚硒酸钠 (Ⅲ组 ) ,促性腺激素 +VD3(Ⅳ组 )、VD3+VE 亚硒酸钠 (Ⅴ组 )、促性腺激素 +VE 亚硒酸钠(Ⅵ组 )、促性腺激 +VD3+VE 亚硒酸钠 (Ⅶ组 ) ,空白对照 8种处理。试验结果表明 ,母兔经药物处理后 ,其繁殖性能 (发情状况、排卵数、正常受精卵数 )都比对照组显著地提高 ,但Ⅰ、Ⅳ、Ⅵ组有畸形卵子存在 ,以处理Ⅶ组效果最好 ,其排卵数达 4 7± 2 0 .3个 ,正常受精卵 35个 ,分别比对照组多 36 .5个、30个。     

语言·命运·历史——论吉本《苏格兰的书》

苏格兰小说家吉本最著名的作品是其三部曲《苏格兰的书》。这部小说在语言的运用上独具特色 ,对女主人公命运的关注显示出这位男性作家超前的女性主义意识。而小说的叙述结构所蕴含的历史观则是进步和乐观的     

B2C电子商务败因:创新范式研究

B2C电子商务的发展经历了泡沫-失败-复苏的周期,深刻分析其失败的原因,对于今后B2C的发展是有指导意义的。B2C商务模式是一种创新行为,B2C的失败是一种创新行为的失败。本文采用创新理论框架对其失败的原因进行分析。     

LOG-PERIODOGRAM ESTIMATION OF LONG MEMORY VOLATILITY DEPENDENCIES WITH CONDITIONALLY HEAVY TAILED RETURNS

Many recent papers have used semiparametric methods, especially the log-periodogram regression, to detect and estimate long memory in the volatility of asset returns. In these papers, the volatility is proxied by measures such as squared, log-squared, and absolute returns. While the evidence for the existence of long memory is strong using any of these measures, the actual long memory parameter estimates can be sensitive to which measure is used. In Monte-Carlo simulations, I find that if the data is conditionally leptokurtic, the log-periodogram regression estimator using squared returns has a large downward bias, which is avoided by using other volatility measures. In United States stock return data, I find that squared returns give much lower estimates of the long memory parameter than the alternative volatility measures, which is consistent with the simulation results. I conclude that researchers should avoid using the squared returns in the semiparametric estimation of long memory volatility dependencies.     

Bayesian analysis of discrete time warranty data

Summary.  The analysis of warranty claim data, and their use for prediction, has been a topic of active research in recent years. Field data comprising numbers of units returned under guarantee are examined, covering both situations in which the ages of the failed units are known and in which they are not. The latter case poses particular computational problems for likelihood-based methods because of the large number of feasible failure patterns that must be included as contributions to the likelihood function. For prediction of future warranty exposure, which is of central concern to the manufacturer, the Bayesian approach is adopted. For this, Markov chain Monte Carlo methodology is developed.