On a class exhibiting trend change in average failure rate

Abstract

Weak convergence and moment convergence issues are investigated for the New Better than Average Failure Rate (NBAFR) family (introduced by Loh (1984 Loh, W. Y. 1984. A new generalization of the class of NBU distributions. IEEE Transactions on Reliability R-33 :97–113[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar])). We explore the validity of these results in the context of a more general ageing class that we introduce. We prove some new properties of this class and derive its interrelationships with other non-monotonic ageing families. Reliability and moment bounds are obtained and an interesting characterization of exponentiality is proved. Special cases of our results lead to new theorems for the NBAFR class. Finally weak convergence and related issues are established for this class.     

从教育理念的视角解读高等教育大众化

高等教育大众化过程中出现了一系列令人深思的问题,教育理念的陈旧是其中一个重要原因。因此,变革教育理念是适应高等教育大众化发展的迫切要求。本文论述了高等教育大众化进程中转变教育理念的初步设想及其现实意义。     

Wer das Stabilisieren vergisst: Warum eine schöne Abschlusspräsentation noch kein gutes Ende bedeutet

Many organizational change projects fail — despite a well thought out concept, professional project management and a binding implementation timetable. The reason why the expected success doesn’t materialize often lies with the missing maintenance. Once the project is officially completed and the client and project manager withdraw, the manner in which the organization will take up these changes is seldom systematically dealt with. Difficulties often arise when no discrete stabilizing measures are planned. We have derived four central action areas which will be clarified by way of practical examples. It will also be shown what is important to pay attention to in the stabilization phase so that a lasting success of the organizational change project can be ensured.     

论素质教育和创新教育

论述了素质教育的基本概念 ,素质教育目标的层次性 ,创新教育是素质教育的重点 ,对大学生进行素质教育的具体要求。     

梁启超的法律思想新探

梁启超是中国近代史上一位著名的思想家 ,他的法律思想 ,不仅以变法维新为主要内容 ,提倡“德治”、正确处理好“法治”与“德治”的关系、主张宪政、强调在法律规定范围内的自由等 ,也是梁启超法律思想的重要内容     

跳跃式经济发展模式探讨

根据新兴古典经济学的分工理论和新制度学派的理论工具 ,论述了跳跃式经济发展的两种大推进工业化模式 ,以及由制度结构变迁引发的跳跃式经济发展模式 ,提出了加快科技创新、扩大人力资本投资、发展信息产业和高科技产业等实现路径     

转型期实现内外均衡的政策搭配研究

中国在入世后的10年左右 ,正处于转型经济中。应该通过调节社会总需求、社会总供给等政策工具 ,实现合理搭配 ,以达到中国宏观经济的内外均衡     

农户对农村公共服务的需求意愿分析 ———基于一项全国范围农户调查的实证研究

文章基于一项关于农户对农村公共服务需求意愿的全国范围的调查数据，分析了农户对农村义务教育、农村医疗卫生、农村社会保障、农村文化事业、农村劳动力技能培训这5种农村公共服务的整体需求意愿及不同特征农户需求意愿的差别、农户对5种农村公共服务各个方面要素的需求意愿以及农户对5种农村公共服务需求的优先序。研究结果表明农户对5种农村公共服务的整体需求意愿并不相同，对农村劳动力技能培训的需求最强烈，不同特征的农户的需求意愿也不相同。另外与其他农村公共产品相比，农户对文章所研究的5种农村公共服务的需求意愿比较强烈。     

Detecting parameter shift in garch models

This paper applies recent theories of testing for parameter constancy to the conditional variance in a GARCH model. The supremum Lagrange multiplier test for conditional Gaussian GARCH models and its robustified variants are discussed. The asymptotic null distribution of the test statistics are derived from the weak convergence of the scores, and the critical values from the hitting probability of squared Bessel process.

Monte Carlo studies on the finite sample size and power performance of the supremum LM tests are conducted. Applications of these tests to S&P 500 indicate that the hypothesis of stable conditional variance parameters can be rejected.     

A construal level analysis of organizational change processes

To effectively manage planned change and understand differences in leaders’ and recipients’ responses to it, it is essential to understand how change is cognitively represented by organization members. In this theory-development article, we draw upon construal-level theory (CLT) and conceptually explore the role of change construal level in explaining responses to organizational change. We discuss differences between change leaders’ and recipients’ change construals, and differences in the relationships between change construal level and the response to change as a function of the change activities taking place. Specifically, we argue that high-level (i.e., abstract) construals of change will facilitate the effective initiation of change when the focus is on equilibrium-breaking activities, and that low-level (i.e., concrete) construals will facilitate the effective implementation of change when the focus is on institutionalization of the change. We further propose that leaders’ engagement in visionary leadership increases the likelihood that their generally higher level construal of change will be integrated into recipients’ change construals, elaborating and elevating them, and that recipients’ engagement in upward prohibitive voice behaviors will increase the likelihood that their generally lower construal of change will be integrated into leaders’ change construals, elaborating and concretizing them. We discuss theoretical and practical implications of our framework.