Improved Transferability of Data‐Driven Damage Models Through Sample Selection Bias Correction

Damage models for natural hazards are used for decision making on reducing and transferring risk. The damage estimates from these models depend on many variables and their complex sometimes nonlinear relationships with the damage. In recent years, data‐driven modeling techniques have been used to capture those relationships. The available data to build such models are often limited. Therefore, in practice it is usually necessary to transfer models to a different context. In this article, we show that this implies the samples used to build the model are often not fully representative for the situation where they need to be applied on, which leads to a “sample selection bias.” In this article, we enhance data‐driven damage models by applying methods, not previously applied to damage modeling, to correct for this bias before the machine learning (ML) models are trained. We demonstrate this with case studies on flooding in Europe, and typhoon wind damage in the Philippines. Two sample selection bias correction methods from the ML literature are applied and one of these methods is also adjusted to our problem. These three methods are combined with stochastic generation of synthetic damage data. We demonstrate that for both case studies, the sample selection bias correction techniques reduce model errors, especially for the mean bias error this reduction can be larger than 30%. The novel combination with stochastic data generation seems to enhance these techniques. This shows that sample selection bias correction methods are beneficial for damage model transfer.     

A Graphical Tool for Interpreting Regression Coefficients of Trinomial Logit Models

Multinomial logit (also termed multi-logit) models permit the analysis of the statistical relation between a categorical response variable and a set of explicative variables (called covariates or regressors). Although multinomial logit is widely used in both the social and economic sciences, the interpretation of regression coefficients may be tricky, as the effect of covariates on the probability distribution of the response variable is nonconstant and difficult to quantify. The ternary plots illustrated in this article aim at facilitating the interpretation of regression coefficients and permit the effect of covariates (either singularly or jointly considered) on the probability distribution of the dependent variable to be quantified. Ternary plots can be drawn both for ordered and for unordered categorical dependent variables, when the number of possible outcomes equals three (trinomial response variable); these plots allow not only to represent the covariate effects over the whole parameter space of the dependent variable but also to compare the covariate effects of any given individual profile. The method is illustrated and discussed through analysis of a dataset concerning the transition of master’s graduates of the University of Trento (Italy) from university to employment.     

Politics in evaluation: Politically responsive evaluation in high stakes environments

The role of politics has often been discussed in evaluation theory and practice. The political influence of the situation can have major effects on the evaluation design, approach and methods. Politics also has the potential to influence the decisions made from the evaluation findings. The current study focuses on the influence of the political context on stakeholder decision making. Utilizing a simulation scenario, this study compares stakeholder decision making in high and low stakes evaluation contexts. Findings suggest that high stakes political environments are more likely than low stakes environments to lead to reduced reliance on technically appropriate measures and increased dependence on measures better reflect the broader political environment.     

全球化与当代马克思主义中国化

全球化是人类社会发展的一个必然过程。马克思主义是全球化的产物,在全球化和马克思主义的共同作用下,结合中国具体实际,形成了中国化的马克思主义。全球化不仅对马克思主义传入中国和马克思主义中国化的推进产生了深刻的影响,而且对当今中国共产党的指导思想和社会政治现实产生了巨大的作用。     

Integrating Family Resilience and Family Stress Theory

The construct, family resilience, has been defined and applied very differently by those who are primarily clinical practitioners and those who are primarily researchers in the family field. In thisarticle, the family resilience perspective is integrated with conceptual definitions from family stress theory using the Family Adjustment and Adaptation Response (FAAR) Model in an effort to clarify distinctions between family resiliency as capacity and family resilience as a process. The family resilience process is discussed in terms of (a) the meaning of significant risk exposure (vs. the normal challenges of family life) and (b) the importance of making conceptual and operational distinctions between family system outcomes and family protective processes. Recommendations for future family resilience research are discussed.     

正确坚持新闻指导性原则

社会主义市场经济条件下 ,作为党、政府和人民的耳目喉舌的新闻媒体 ,仍然必须牢牢坚持新闻指导性原则 ,这是由我国无产阶级新闻事业的基本性质所决定的 ,是新形势下广大受众政治、经济生活的迫切需要。为了不断增强指导效果 ,新闻媒体当前主要应从以下几方面改进指导方法 :改变指挥命令的做法 ,在服务中增强指导性 ;力戒图解政策 ,通过深入实际、反映实际增强指导性 ;防止片面性、简单化 ,以客观、全面、辩证的方法增强指导性     

论洪仁玗中西文化观之特色

洪仁接受了中西文化并皈依上帝 ,其文化观具有浓厚的宗教色彩。他既有对西方文化多方位接受和认同的趋新意识 ,又有对传统文化的恋旧情结 ,试图用附会中西的办法来规范中西文化。他的文化观极具开放性和前瞻性 ,但又有自相矛盾和不成熟的局限     

当代西方关于全球性问题的哲理反思

当代人类面临种种全球性问题,科技社会效应的两重性空前突出。当代西方思想界出现了一场科技悲观论与科技乐观论的激烈论争。对这场极具哲理性的争论应给予全面分析并加以总结,这将有助于马克思主义的科技价值论和生态哲学观的深化和发展。     

高校加强大学生心理健康教育问题探索

本文针对近期大学生中出现的一系列心理问题,结合教学实际,就如何加强大学生心理健康教育进行了探讨,提出开设心理健康课、成立心理咨询中心等建议。     

评几种错误的人生追求

把追求金钱、享乐、权力作为人生的目的 ,是错误的人生追求。利己主义是剥削阶级人生目的的核心。无产阶级的人生目的是为人民。由“为自己”到“为人民” ,这是人类历史上人生目的的革命变革。遵循马克思主义“为绝大多数人谋利益”的基本原理 ,中共三代领导人对无产阶级人生目的作了精辟表述。通过学习和践履马列主义和毛泽东、邓小平、江泽民关于人生目的的论述 ,必然会破除种种错误的人生目的和人生追求 ,确立全心全意为人民服务的无产阶级人生目的和人生追求。