Quantifying uncertainty in the biospheric carbon flux for England and Wales

Summary.  A crucial issue in the current global warming debate is the effect of vegetation and soils on carbon dioxide (CO₂) concentrations in the atmosphere. Vegetation can extract CO₂ through photosynthesis, but respiration, decay of soil organic matter and disturbance effects such as fire return it to the atmosphere. The balance of these processes is the net carbon flux. To estimate the biospheric carbon flux for England and Wales, we address the statistical problem of inference for the sum of multiple outputs from a complex deterministic computer code whose input parameters are uncertain. The code is a process model which simulates the carbon dynamics of vegetation and soils, including the amount of carbon that is stored as a result of photosynthesis and the amount that is returned to the atmosphere through respiration. The aggregation of outputs corresponding to multiple sites and types of vegetation in a region gives an estimate of the total carbon flux for that region over a period of time. Expert prior opinions are elicited for marginal uncertainty about the relevant input parameters and for correlations of inputs between sites. A Gaussian process model is used to build emulators of the multiple code outputs and Bayesian uncertainty analysis is then used to propagate uncertainty in the input parameters through to uncertainty on the aggregated output. Numerical results are presented for England and Wales in the year 2000. It is estimated that vegetation and soils in England and Wales constituted a net sink of 7.55 Mt C (1 Mt C = 10¹² g of carbon) in 2000, with standard deviation 0.56 Mt C resulting from the sources of uncertainty that are considered.     

内混式油喷嘴流量特性实验研究

以压缩空气和变压器油为工质,对内混式介质雾化喷嘴的流量特性进行了实验研究,得出了内混式介质雾化喷嘴油、气流量系数与运行及结构参数的实验关系式.实验结果表明,不同内混式喷嘴或同一喷嘴在不同运行参数下的流量系数值变化很大,与通常设计计算时的推荐值偏差最大达100%以上.油压大于等于气压工况下的实验关系式与油压小于等于气压工况下的实验关系式有较大的区别.     

Towards Enhancement of the Economy of a Thermal Power Generating System through Prediction of Plant Efficiency

The plant ‘Heat Rate’ (HR) is a measure of overall efficiency of a thermal power generating system. It depends on a large number of factors, some of which are non-measurable, while data relating to others are seldom available and recorded. However, coal quality (expressed in terms of ‘effective heat value’ (EHV) as kcal/kg) transpires to be one of the important factors that influences HR values and data on EHV are available in any thermal power generating system. In the present work, we propose a prediction interval of the HR values on the basis of only EHV, keeping in mind that coal quality is one of the important (but not the only) factors that have a pronounced effect on the combustion process and hence on HR. The underlying theory borrows the idea of providing simultaneous confidence interval (SCI) to the coefficients of a p-th p(≥1) order autoregressive model (AR(p)). The theory has been substantiated with the help of real life data from a power utility (after suitable base and scale transformation of the data to maintain the confidentiality of the classified document). Scope for formulating strategies to enhance the economy of a thermal power generating system has also been explored.     

利率变动下的存续期缺口管理和流量比例调整

在金融自由化和利率市场化的浪潮下,商业银行所面临的利率风险防范问题日益突出。利率风险管理成为商业银行经营管理中极其重要的环节。马考勒存续期缺口管理是现代西方商业银行的主要风险管理手段之一,合理构造存续期缺口可使商业银行净值不受市场利率影响,而流量比例调整可以克服存续期缺口受制于利率变动的不足,综合利用存续期缺口管理对我国商业银行建立风险管理机制起着重要的作用。     

负载型铑催化剂催化苯乙酮的多相不对称氢化反应的研究

研究了苯乙酮在负载型铑催化剂催化下的多相不对称氢化反应,结果表明在以1%Rh-γ-Al2O3-2TPPTS和1%Rh-SiO2-2TPPTS为催化剂,(1S,2S)-二苯基乙二胺(DPEN)为手性修饰剂和一定量的KOH用于苯乙酮的不对称加氢反应,在反应条件为40oC,5MpaH2下,显示出好的催化活性,苯乙酮加氢产物的对映选择性分别达到了22.5%和25.4%。     

非对称信息市场理论对规范中国劳动力市场秩序的启示

信息不对称是导致中国劳动力市场秩序混乱的主要原因之一。斯宾塞的劳动力市场模型解决了信息非对称条件下的均衡实现问题,同时也揭示了信息不对称下均衡效率低下、劳动力市场混乱的事实。运用这一模型对我国劳动力市场存在的问题作了进一步解释,并提出了规范我国劳动力市场的对策。     

涡轮叶片尾缘针肋的换热研究

以涡轮叶片尾缘中针肋通道的换热为研究对象，讨论并计算出了一定条件下获得最大针肋通道换热量时针肋的形状曲线和换热优势，系统分析了这种拥有最佳形状曲线针肋的通道散热量随针肋物性参数及几何特征变化的规律。     

A Two-dimensional Heat Transfer Model for Atmosphere-land System in the Lake-dominated Alaskan Arctic

1 Introduction Shallow tundra lakes are one of the dominating landscape features in the Alaskan Arctic. They typically cover 20% of the total area of the North Slope of Alaska, and up to about 40% in the coastal plain [1,2]. Many lakes are, in their entirety or in part, shallower than the maximum annual ice thickness, consequently, some ice freezes completely to the lake bottom, nevertheless, large areas of water are deeper than the maximum ice thickness and the ice remains afloat througho…     

建筑节能激励政策的非对称博弈分析

本文探讨了建筑节能领域中政府与房地产商群体之间的非对称博弈问题,分析了该博弈所具有的模仿者动态模型、斯坦克尔伯格模型的特点,并构造了两者关于建筑节能激励政策的非对称博弈模型,最后对双方分别提出了博弈策略建议。     

公开市场操作公告对中国股市交易行为的影响

基于MRR结构模型,利用广义矩估计方法,从信息不对称和流动性成本角度考察了央行公开市场操作公告对股票市场交易行为的影响。实证结果表明,公开市场操作披露前股票市场的信息不对称程度、流动性成本并未发生显著变化,公开市场操作披露后30分钟内,信息不对称程度增加,流动性成本下降。在考虑了公开市场操作未预期的利率变化具体内容后,所得结果并没有显著变化。