Improved Transferability of Data‐Driven Damage Models Through Sample Selection Bias Correction

Damage models for natural hazards are used for decision making on reducing and transferring risk. The damage estimates from these models depend on many variables and their complex sometimes nonlinear relationships with the damage. In recent years, data‐driven modeling techniques have been used to capture those relationships. The available data to build such models are often limited. Therefore, in practice it is usually necessary to transfer models to a different context. In this article, we show that this implies the samples used to build the model are often not fully representative for the situation where they need to be applied on, which leads to a “sample selection bias.” In this article, we enhance data‐driven damage models by applying methods, not previously applied to damage modeling, to correct for this bias before the machine learning (ML) models are trained. We demonstrate this with case studies on flooding in Europe, and typhoon wind damage in the Philippines. Two sample selection bias correction methods from the ML literature are applied and one of these methods is also adjusted to our problem. These three methods are combined with stochastic generation of synthetic damage data. We demonstrate that for both case studies, the sample selection bias correction techniques reduce model errors, especially for the mean bias error this reduction can be larger than 30%. The novel combination with stochastic data generation seems to enhance these techniques. This shows that sample selection bias correction methods are beneficial for damage model transfer.     

Loss and grief: The experience of transition to residential aged care

There is growing recognition of the experience of non-death-related loss and grief. One unexplored area of non-death-related loss and grief is associated with older people’s transition from home to residential aged care (RAC). This paper reports findings from a qualitative study that explored the experiences of people living in RAC, carer-relatives of people living in RAC and RAC staff. Using theories of loss and grief, the paper identifies features of the transition to RAC that are associated with unresolved loss and maladaptation to changed circumstances, and the types of support that would mitigate these. Using a series of focus groups with both residents and carer-relatives, as well as staff, the study found that residents and their families need more support to negotiate the multiple, often necessarily hasty decisions and bureaucratic requirements associated with transitioning to RAC, while simultaneously experiencing loss and grief. The types of support that families would welcome from service providers include facilitating shared decision making, valuing family and community carer expertise and providing practical information and assistance to fulfil administrative obligations.     

People with disability and new disaster communications: access and the social media mash-up

This article explores how a lack of access to increasingly complex and overlapping digital communications platforms in times of disaster for people with disabilities has the potential to make already life-threatening situations considerably more dangerous. As we are increasingly coming to rely on a social media mash-up of digital platforms to assist in communications during disaster situations, the issue of accessibility for people with disabilities is as dire as if it was high ground during a tsunami or transport during a typhoon. The contemporary social media environment is characterised by a complex and overlapping network of complementary platforms, populated by user-generated content, where people communicate and exchange ideas. In this environment, YouTube videos are posted to Facebook and embedded in blogs, and Twitter is used to link to these other sites and is itself embedded in other platforms. These networks are increasingly supplementing and supplanting more traditional communication platforms, such as the television and radio, particularly in times of disaster. The concern of this paper is that the elements from which this mash-up of communications channels is made are not always accessible to people with disabilities. This evolving network of social media-based communication exposes the limits of existing Internet-based universal design.     

基于债务协商视角的债转股定量研究

针对我国政府、企业和银行等金融机构共同关注的债转股问题，基于债务协商谈判思想，建立部分债务股权互换模型，计算公司证券价格，探讨了债转股对公司价值、破产概率、破产损失成本和资本结构的影响，给出了银行等债权人愿意债转股的充分条件。结果表明：在事先破产清算协议贷款下，事后全部债转股总能提高公司股权价值，但并不一定能提高债券价值。只有其协商谈判能力满足一定条件，公司债权人才愿意事后选择债转股，实现帕累托改进、提高社会福利水平。其次，在公司股东协商谈判能力的一定范围内，部分债转股能提高公司价值，其最优转股债息比例随着公司资产风险的增大而增加。再次，债转股能降低公司破产风险和破产损失成本，但同时也提高了债券风险溢价。最后，随着股东谈判能力增强，最优协商转股债务比例、杠杆率都减少，而债券风险溢价增大。本文所得结果对我国政府、企业和银行如何实施债转股提供理论参考和实践指导。     

Bi-objective multi-resource scheduling problem for emergency relief operations

Abstract

Resource scheduling for emergency relief operations is complex as it has many constraints. However, an effective allocation and sequencing of resources are crucial for the minimization of the completion times in emergency relief operations. Despite the importance of such decisions, only a few mathematical models of emergency relief operations have been studied. This article presents a bi-objective mixed integer programming (MIP) that helps to minimize both the total weighted time of completion of the demand points and the makespan of the total emergency relief operation. A two-phase method is developed to solve the bi-objective MIP problem. Additionally, a case study of hospital network in the Melbourne metropolitan area is used to evaluate the model. The results indicate that the model can successfully support the decisions required in the optimal resource scheduling of emergency relief operations.     

Pregnancy after loss during the COVID19 pandemic

BackgroundRapid changes to how maternity health care is delivered has occurred in many countries across the globe in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Maternity care provisions have been challenged attempting to balance the needs and safety of pregnant women and their care providers. Women experiencing a pregnancy after loss (PAL) during these times face particularly difficult circumstances.AimIn this paper we highlight the situation in three high income countries (Australia, Ireland and USA) and point to the need to remember the unique and challenging circumstances of these PAL families. We suggest new practices may be deviating from established evidence-based guidelines and outline the potential ramifications of these changes.FindingsRecommendations for health care providers are suggested to bridge the gap between the necessary safety requirements due to the pandemic, the role of the health care provider, and the needs of families experiencing a pregnancy after loss.DiscussionChanges to practices i.e. limiting the number of antenatal appointments and access to a support person may have detrimental effects on both mother, baby, and their family. However, new guidelines in maternity care practices developed to account for the pandemic have not necessarily considered women experiencing pregnancy after loss.ConclusionBereaved mothers and their families experiencing a pregnancy after loss should continue to be supported during the COVID-19 pandemic to limit unintended consequences.     

家用电冰箱节能阀的可行性研究

针对家用电冰箱开、停机过程产生的能量损失，提出了一种节能阀的设想，并采用模拟节能阀系统加以验证，实验结果表明了它的可行性和节能效果。     

汉代救荒对策论略

汉代荒政已初步形成一个较为完备的体系。汉政府在救荒实践中 ,往往能从战略高度出发 ,在灾前、灾时和灾后采取了一系列形式多样、内容丰富的备荒、救荒的策略措施。本文从文献资料出发 ,对汉代的救荒对策作了较为细致的总结和分析。这些措施在抗灾、救灾中发挥了积极作用 ,同时它对于今天预防灾害也有一定的参考价值。     

构建立足“3R”的矿难治理预防管理体系

对劳动力载体的保护是劳动和社会保障的指向之一。面对矿难对劳动者生存权的侵蚀,加强矿难治理的准备工作,就成了生命对社会的合理诉求。这其中对劳动者生存权的尊重,也是构建和谐社会的应有之义。     

增长曲线模型非齐次线性估计的可容许性

讨论增长曲线模型Y =X1BX2 +ε中回归矩阵B的函数C1BC2 的估计L1YL2 +A ,在矩阵损失 (LT2 L1)Y +A - (ST2 XT2 S1X1)B (LT2 L1)Y +A - (ST2 XT2 S1X1)B T 下 ,我们得到了非齐次线性估计L1YL2 +A在非齐次线性估计类Г ={L1YL2 +A|L1:t×p ,L2 ;n×n ,A :t×s均为已知实阵 }中可容许的充要条件 :L1YL2在Г0 ={L1YL2 |L1:t×p ,L2 :n×s均为已知实阵 }中容许且当LT2 XT2 L1X1=ST2 XT2 S1X1时有A =0。