新常态下货币供给对工业经济的非对称冲击——兼论冲击路径的情景设计与分析

货币政策冲击对工业产出和价格的非对称影响，是新常态下把握好货币供给政策的方向、力度和节奏的重要参考依据，有助于提升货币供给政策的针对性、灵活性和前瞻性。局部投影方法在不同区制下，计算工业产出和价格对货币供给冲击的脉冲响应结果表明：货币供给冲击对工业产出的影响具有不确定性，且总体上表现为中性特征；而货币供给冲击对工业价格的影响不仅在不同区制下，而且在新常态前后均表现出显著的差异性和非对称性，总体来说是短期有效，长期中性的。情景设计的分析结果显示新常态下采用增加货币供给的政策来刺激工业经济是不可取的，其作用效果可能出现工业产出停滞不前，工业价格急剧飙升的工业滞胀。因此，需要从工业产业升级，工业技术创新等工业供给侧寻求工业经济新的增长点和动力机制。     

People with disability and new disaster communications: access and the social media mash-up

This article explores how a lack of access to increasingly complex and overlapping digital communications platforms in times of disaster for people with disabilities has the potential to make already life-threatening situations considerably more dangerous. As we are increasingly coming to rely on a social media mash-up of digital platforms to assist in communications during disaster situations, the issue of accessibility for people with disabilities is as dire as if it was high ground during a tsunami or transport during a typhoon. The contemporary social media environment is characterised by a complex and overlapping network of complementary platforms, populated by user-generated content, where people communicate and exchange ideas. In this environment, YouTube videos are posted to Facebook and embedded in blogs, and Twitter is used to link to these other sites and is itself embedded in other platforms. These networks are increasingly supplementing and supplanting more traditional communication platforms, such as the television and radio, particularly in times of disaster. The concern of this paper is that the elements from which this mash-up of communications channels is made are not always accessible to people with disabilities. This evolving network of social media-based communication exposes the limits of existing Internet-based universal design.     

A dynamic business modelling approach to design and experiment new business venture strategies

Business Modelling has evolved as a key activity to reflect new business venture strategy by framing the way a firm will operate and how it will function in achieving its goals (e.g., profitability, growth, innovation, social impact). However, scholars and practitioners have criticized the adoption of a too static perspective in the design and use of conventional Business Model representations. Such a static perspective prevents nascent entrepreneurs experimenting with their Business Models and, as a result, identifying the most effective strategies, especially in terms of business sustainability and profitability. In this paper, we argue that combining conventional Business Model schemas with System Dynamics modelling results in a strategy design tool that may overcome several limitations related to a static view of Business Model representation. Mapping the different key elements underlying value creation processes into a system of causal interdependencies – through the use of simulation – allows strategy analysts and entrepreneurs to experiment and learn how the business reacts to strategic and organizational changes in terms of performance, innovation and value creation. As such, Dynamic Business Models provide useful insights to strategy formulation and business venturing by capturing how critical Business Model elements interact to produce enduring competitive advantages over time.     

测定小惯性热电偶时间常数新法

研究了用电加热法解决用于动态气流温度测量的小惯性热电偶时间常数的实验测定问题。提出采取在稳定气流场中用电加热热电偶然后迅速切断电源的方法 ,获取较为理想的负温度阶跃 ,进而由热电偶的阶跃响应曲线求得时间常数。设计了相应的设备 ,并进行了实验测定 ,获得了较好的结果。     

植物液泡膜H+-ATPase及其在胁迫中的响应

V-ATPase存在于所有已知的真核生物中,在植物的生长、发育、信号转导和胁迫适应过程中发挥着重要的作用.近年来对V-ATPase的结构、功能和调节机制的研究进展较快,V-ATPase主要亚基已经完成序列测定及分析,并对各亚基生理功能、V-ATPase全酶复合体的组装、调控也有了较为深入的研究.该文在阐述植物细胞液泡膜H -ATPase的基本结构的基础上,介绍V-ATPase亚基组成、编码基因及在胁迫应答中的响应.     

Examples of the use of an equivalence theorem in constructing optimum experimental designs for random-effects nonlinear regression models

The problem considered is that of finding an optimum measurement schedule to estimate population parameters in a nonlinear model when the patient effects are random. The paper presents examples of the use of sensitivity functions, derived from the General Equivalence Theorem for D-optimality, in the construction of optimum population designs for such schedules. With independent observations, the theorem applies to the potential inclusion of a single observation. However, in population designs the observations are correlated and the theorem applies to the inclusion of an additional measurement schedule. In one example, three groups of patients of differing size are subject to distinct schedules. Numerical, as opposed to analytical, calculation of the sensitivity function is advocated. The required covariances of the observations are found by simulation.     

Assessing goodness-of-fit of categorical regression models based on case-control data

Demonstrated equivalence between a categorical regression model based on case‐control data and an I‐sample semiparametric selection bias model leads to a new goodness‐of‐fit test. The proposed test statistic is an extension of an existing Kolmogorov–Smirnov‐type statistic and is the weighted average of the absolute differences between two estimated distribution functions in each response category. The paper establishes an optimal property for the maximum semiparametric likelihood estimator of the parameters in the I‐sample semiparametric selection bias model. It also presents a bootstrap procedure, some simulation results and an analysis of two real datasets.     

从读者反应理论看朱生豪、梁实秋的莎译本中文化空缺词的翻译

读者接受理论为文学翻译提供了一个更为开放的视角,值得重视和借鉴。然而,如果全盘接受读者接受理论的观点,把文学翻译仅仅看作一种译者主体行为,势必会导致不准确的翻译。读者对于文化空缺词的接受能力是一个历史的动态变化过程。     

机械装置转子支承系统临界转速估算K3法

根据机械振动和积木式传递矩阵法的原理,提出了用于估算单、双转子系统一阶临界转速的实用方法,从而得到的“K3表”可方便地使用于产品的方案设计阶段或现场排故,并可得到满意的工程精度。     

Low dose risk estimation via simultaneous statistical inferences

Summary.  The paper develops and studies simultaneous confidence bounds that are useful for making low dose inferences in quantitative risk analysis. Application is intended for risk assessment studies where human, animal or ecological data are used to set safe low dose levels of a toxic agent, but where study information is limited to high dose levels of the agent. Methods are derived for estimating simultaneous, one-sided, upper confidence limits on risk for end points measured on a continuous scale. From the simultaneous confidence bounds, lower confidence limits on the dose that is associated with a particular risk (often referred to as a bench-mark dose ) are calculated. An important feature of the simultaneous construction is that any inferences that are based on inverting the simultaneous confidence bounds apply automatically to inverse bounds on the bench-mark dose.