Translating cross-lagged effects into incidence rates and risk ratios: The case of psychosocial safety climate and depression

Longitudinal studies are the gold standard of empirical work and stress research whenever experiments are not plausible. Frequently, scales are used to assess risk factors and their consequences, and cross-lagged effects are estimated to determine possible risks. Methods to translate cross-lagged effects into risk ratios to facilitate risk assessment do not yet exist, which creates a divide between psychological and epidemiological work stress research. The aim of the present paper is to demonstrate how cross-lagged effects can be used to assess the risk ratio of different levels of psychosocial safety climate (PSC) in organisations, an important psychosocial risk for the development of depression. We used available longitudinal evidence from the Australian Workplace Barometer (N?=?1905) to estimate cross-lagged effects of PSC on depression. We applied continuous time modelling to obtain time-scalable cross effects. These were further investigated in a 4-year Monte Carlo simulation, which translated them into 4-year incident rates. Incident rates were determined by relying on clinically relevant 2-year periods of depression. We suggest a critical value of PSC?=?26 (corresponding to ?1.4 SD), which is indicative of more than 100% increased incidents of persistent depressive disorder in 4-year periods compared to average levels of PSC across 4 years.     

A New Methodology for Before–After Safety Assessment Using Survival Analysis and Longitudinal Data

The widely used empirical Bayes (EB) and full Bayes (FB) methods for before–after safety assessment are sometimes limited because of the extensive data needs from additional reference sites. To address this issue, this study proposes a novel before–after safety evaluation methodology based on survival analysis and longitudinal data as an alternative to the EB/FB method. A Bayesian survival analysis (SARE) model with a random effect term to address the unobserved heterogeneity across sites is developed. The proposed survival analysis method is validated through a simulation study before its application. Subsequently, the SARE model is developed in a case study to evaluate the safety effectiveness of a recent red‐light‐running photo enforcement program in New Jersey. As demonstrated in the simulation and the case study, the survival analysis can provide valid estimates using only data from treated sites, and thus its results will not be affected by the selection of defective or insufficient reference sites. In addition, the proposed approach can take into account the censored data generated due to the transition from the before period to the after period, which has not been previously explored in the literature. Using individual crashes as units of analysis, survival analysis can incorporate longitudinal covariates such as the traffic volume and weather variation, and thus can explicitly account for the potential temporal heterogeneity.     

Comprehensive neighbourhood mapping: developing a powerful tool for child protection

This paper proposes ‘comprehensive neighbourhood mapping’ as a schema for gathering and interpreting information within a given geographical area which is informed by imaginative thinking about the safety of children and young people from sexual crime. It would build upon current forms of profiling by local authorities, health authorities and central Government. CNM would actively involve local people, in partnership with agencies, in ‘mapping’ danger points and support points. Eight components are discussed, including environmental issues, locations of sex offenders, sites where teenagers meet and share information, supportive individuals and organizations. Some issues for pilot projects are discussed, including the need to set up planning and implementation groups and to integrate CNM into wider child protection and community safety strategies. CNM is grounded in an ecological perspective which sees partnership approaches as essential and believes an overarching view of neighbourhood needs, based on detailed local information and understanding of how different forms of harm interconnect, is crucial in developing child protection strategies. At times of acute official anxiety about community ‘lynch‐mob’ reactions to known paedophiles, CNM aims to build communities which instead are informed and thoughtful about child protection. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

更高层次的迈进——企业相对社会责任的实现

相对社会责任的承担与实现,对企业自身和社会都具有重大意义,但由于缺乏机制的制约和策略的应用,其实现是困难的。正确处理企业利益与社会责任的关系,促使更多企业从履行绝对社会责任,上升到追求更高层次社会责任的实现,一方面需要外在环境的保障,另一方面要求企业在履行社会责任时,注意策略选择。     

城市公众安全文化教育的方法与思路——兼议北京2008“安全奥运文化”普及问题

通过对安全文化发展演变历史的简单回眸,探讨了适用于城市安全减灾的安全文化教育的模式及方法,尤其从文化建设层面上研究了应用安全文化建设方法的特点。作为最现实的应用,还就2008年北京“安全奥运”的系统化建设提出了“安全奥运文化”普及教育的思路。     

保障奥运食品安全 完善食品安全可追溯管理

近年来，食品安全成为全球热点问题之一，为解决食品安全问题，食品可追溯技术应运而生，只要一个条形码，就可追溯到食品的出产地、生长地甚至基因情况，食品有了自己的“身份证”。为保障奥运期间的食品安全，北京应加强食品安全管理，供应奥运食品将全部实行可追溯制度，用科技手段来为奥运会护航。     

A Risk-Based Method for Modeling Traffic Fatalities

We describe a risk-based analytical framework for estimating traffic fatalities that combines the probability of a crash and the probability of fatality in the event of a crash. As an illustrative application, we use the methodology to explore the role of vehicle mix and vehicle prevalence on long-run fatality trends for a range of transportation growth scenarios that may be relevant to developing societies. We assume crash rates between different road users are proportional to their roadway use and estimate case fatality ratios (CFRs) for the different vehicle-vehicle and vehicle-pedestrian combinations. We find that in the absence of road safety interventions, the historical trend of initially rising and then falling fatalities observed in industrialized nations occurred only if motorization was through car ownership. In all other cases studied (scenarios dominated by scooter use, bus use, and mixed use), traffic fatalities rose monotonically. Fatalities per vehicle had a falling trend similar to that observed in historical data from industrialized nations. Regional adaptations of the model validated with local data can be used to evaluate the impacts of transportation planning and safety interventions, such as helmets, seat belts, and enforcement of traffic laws, on traffic fatalities.     

南宁市粮食生产影响因素分析

本文以南宁市为例,运用灰色关联度和生产函数,分析了1997-2003年粮食生产的影响因素及其贡献率。粮食产量灰色关联度分析作出关联因子排序:粮食单产>耕地面积>粮食作物播种面积>化肥施用量>有效灌溉面积>农村用电量>农业机械总动力>农药施用量,表明粮食单产、耕地面积与粮食作物播种面积对粮食总产的影响最大,从投入角度分析粮食总产与化肥施用量、有效灌溉面积关联度大;基于生产函数的贡献率分析表明:化肥施用量、农业科技进步、粮食播种面积、农业机械总动力、有效灌溉面积、农业劳动力对粮食增长的贡献率分别为40.08%、27.62%、12.12%、10.78%、8.91%、0.49%,说明7年来粮食增长主要依靠化肥投入、农业科技进步,农业劳动力对粮食产量增加作用微小。     

论诚实信用原则——以安全为价值取向的新分析

诚实信用原则是民法和合同法的基本原则。它要求民事主体诚信行使权利和履行义务,在民事活动中友好待人,从而维持当事人之间的利益以及当事人利益和社会利益之间的平衡。中国新的合同法已经把诚实信用原则作为基本的原则并规定了一系列适用规则。这表明我国的合同法已经向现代法律理念靠拢。本文讨论了诚实信用原则的概念和特征,相信这个原则可以根本改善现行司法,并扩大法官权利使他们更独立和自由地行为。“诚信和正义”是这一原则的升华和最高理想,它应该被运用到民事司法实践中。“安全”是诚实信用的一个重要价值,本文拟以安全为价值对诚实信用原则进行新的分析。     

Improving the contributions of technology assessment to the health care system of the U.S.A.

Summary Based on 14 case studies of highly effective therapies and the reasons they succeeded less frequently than they could, we propose a variety of steps to improve the health care system of the U.S.A. Whatever proposal emerges from current national debates until innovations are shown to be safe and effective, they should not be supported; when slightly better technologies are much more expensive than other good ones we need to consider appropriate choices carefully; simplified billing and bookkeping would reduce our costs; when a technology is rapidly introduced cautionnary measures may be needed; tracking immunization and repairing their omissions requires a new system; educational programs such as seen effective in hypertension should be applied in other areas such as vaccination; in organ transplantation the nation should consider “presumed consent”; our payment system sometimes creates perverse incentives and therefore needs review; and the preferences of the public in allocation of health resources need to be discovered once the public is informed about the issues. Research supported by Andrew W. Mellon Foundation.