Development of a Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment for Human Salmonellosis Through Household Consumption of Fresh Minced Pork Meat in Belgium

A quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) according to the Codex Alimentarius Principles is conducted to evaluate the risk of human salmonellosis through household consumption of fresh minced pork meat in Belgium. The quantitative exposure assessment is carried out by building a modular risk model, called the METZOON-model, which covers the pork production from farm to fork. In the METZOON-model, the food production pathway is split up in six consecutive modules: (1) primary production, (2) transport and lairage, (3) slaughterhouse, (4) postprocessing, (5) distribution and storage, and (6) preparation and consumption. All the modules are developed to resemble as closely as possible the Belgian situation, making use of the available national data. Several statistical refinements and improved modeling techniques are proposed. The model produces highly realistic results. The baseline predicted number of annual salmonellosis cases is 20,513 ( SD 9061.45). The risk is estimated higher for the susceptible population (estimate  4.713 × 10⁻⁵; SD 1.466 × 10⁻⁵  ) compared to the normal population  (estimate 7.704 × 10⁻⁶; SD 5.414 × 10⁻⁶)  and is mainly due to undercooking and to a smaller extent to cross-contamination in the kitchen via cook's hands.     

钢桶自动化仓库设计

通过分析钢桶的特点以及出入库频率,设计了专门的自动化立体仓库。为了尽可能地提高仓库容量,采用了重 力式货架;为了堆垛机可以连贯地执行出入库操作,将传送带布置在巷道中取代出入库台,并设计了特殊形式的货叉。 由于仓库中堆垛机周期与以往的不同,重新计算了堆垛机的工作周期。最后设计了仓库的控制管理系统并通过Flexsim 仿真验证了方案的可行性。计算和仿真结果表明：仓库的设计能够满足钢桶自动化仓储的需求。     

论网络文学的平民化叙事

互联网的兼容与共享性,使它以平民姿态向社会公众开启文学话语权,从而形成了网络文学平民化的叙事模式,即民间本位的写作立场,凡俗崇拜的认同范式和感觉撒播的表达视界.     

建立我国食品质量安全可追溯标签制度刍议

“从农田到餐桌”的食品安全全程监管的立法机制和监管模式，受到国内外立法机构和专家学者的广泛认同。食品溯源制度便是食品安全全程监管的一个有效手段。食品溯源制度的有形载体是食品质量安全可追溯标签，我国已具备建立食品质量安全可追溯标签制度的立法雏形和实践基础。建立这一制度需要从立法上、管理上、宣传上和技术上进行科学设计．并需着力解决食品追溯信息的收集和传送技术问题、与现行质量管理制度的契舍问题以及食品行业的商业秘密的保护问题。     

A Risk Assessment Model for Campylobacter in Broiler Meat

A quantitative microbiological risk assessment model describes the transmission of Campylobacter through the broiler meat production chain and at home, from entering the processing plant until consumption of a chicken breast fillet meal. The exposure model is linked to a dose-response model to allow estimation of the incidence of human campylobacteriosis. The ultimate objective of the model is to serve as a tool to assess the effects of interventions to reduce campylobacteriosis in the Netherlands. The model describes some basic mechanistics of processing, including the nonlinear effects of cross-contamination between carcasses and their leaking feces. Model input is based on the output of an accompanying farm model and Dutch count data of Campylobacters on the birds' exterior and in the feces. When processing data are lacking, expert judgment is used for model parameter estimation. The model shows that to accurately assess of the effects of interventions, numbers of Campylobacter have to be explicitly incorporated in the model in addition to the prevalence of contamination. Also, as count data usually vary by several orders of magnitude, variability in numbers within and especially between flocks has to be accounted for. Flocks with high concentrations of Campylobacter in the feces that leak from the carcasses during industrial processing seem to have a dominant impact on the human incidence. The uncertainty in the final risk estimate is large, due to a large uncertainty at several stages of the chain. Among others, more quantitative count data at several stages of the production chain are needed to decrease this uncertainty. However, this uncertainty is smaller when relative risks of interventions are calculated with the model. Hence, the model can be effectively used by risk management in deciding on strategies to reduce human campylobacteriosis.     

扁平化组织结构抗风险的分析

以垂直化组织结构作对照,主要从组织结构分岔化解组织结构风险损失的能力,柔性与化解组织结构风险的能力的相关性,扁平化组织结构柔性的水平三方面来研究扁平化组织在化解组织结构风险方面的优势。     

本金无风险的外汇结构性存款的期权特征及其定价

文章首先提出了外汇结构性产品的概念和分类,分析了本金无风险的外汇结构性存款的期权特征及其收益的不确定性。接着用二叉树定价法对其定价,最后探讨了相应的投资风险。认为本金无风险的外汇结构性存款有其投资价值,但由于其价值与标的资产挂钩,因此也存在着一定的投资风险。     

新疆维吾尔族民居的装饰色彩

新疆地域辽阔,维吾尔民居风格多样,其中尤以南疆维吾尔族民居最具代表性。维吾尔族民居装饰喜好绿、红、兰、白、黄色,而且喜好将上述色彩搭配,形成一种色彩对比强烈、艳丽,气氛热烈而浓郁的独特效果。对绿、红、白、黄色的崇尚以及运用,是由新疆独特的自然地理环境、社会人文环境及维吾尔族的民族历史、民族文化、民族宗教等诸多因素相互作用而形成的。     

试论科尔沁蒙古族叙事民歌的教育作用

科尔沁蒙古族作为中国北方少数民族之一,有着13世纪至今的悠久历史及文化,其艺术更是当今学者颇为关注的历史遗产。其中科尔沁蒙古族叙事民歌作为民歌的重要组成部分,不仅数量较多,而且所反应的内容也丰富多彩。如：民族的历史文化、劳动人民的日常生活、杰出的英雄人物、重大的社会事件,甚至民族的传统风俗、习惯、礼仪等等在叙事民歌中都有鲜明生动地体现。特别是科尔沁蒙古族叙事民歌具有多方面的教育作用。本文主要从文化知识教育、伦理道德教育和审美教育等方面的作用来试图研究科尔沁蒙古族叙事民歌的教育作用。     

从训诂到阐释──《管锥编》的古汉语研究

《管锥编》的古汉语研究既有纯语言层面的研究,如对“丫叉句法”和“异质同构”的阐发,也有语言的文化层面的研究,探析汉字取象背后的文化精神。在继承传统训诂学的同时,又将它与现代阐释学相融合,从而推进了传统训诂学的现代转换。