Training needs of extension agents’ regarding organic agriculture in Saudi Arabia

The purpose of this study was to investigate the needs of extension agents for training on organic agriculture (OA) in the Riyadh Region. Fifty-five percent (n = 69) of extension agents were selected to collect data through an electronic survey. Results indicated that extension agents in the Riyadh Region cited on job training as a main source for acquiring knowledge in OA. Agents expressed interest in receiving training in OA in general, OA marketing, and transitioning to OA. The most useful resources were field days at organic farms, OA training sessions at colleges, and attending OA trial plots. There were no differences in the level of interest in training; however, there were significant differences between individuals in terms of their experience in OA, job responsibility for providing information related to OA, and area of specialization in their job. This study recommends developing professional training programs based on the current knowledge of extension agents.     

建构区域文化认同的“影视叙事综合体”——以“京津冀协同发展”为视角

“京津冀区域协同发展”的历史机遇已然到来，而长期以来各成气象的文化形象影响了三地之间的融通和发展。打通文化根脉，营造共通的文化空间，建构区域文化认同，消解隔膜与屏障，是推动区域协同发展的当务之急。在大众传播时代，影视艺术是蕴藉文化，构建形象，传播共识的主要媒介类型。“影视叙事综合体”以影视艺术为传播载体，通过叙事行为、叙事故事、叙事话语、叙事反应等影视叙事功能建构区域文化认同的影像文化空间，提升区域文化形象，促进区域文化的融通和协同发展。     

A Bayesian Analysis of Abundance,Trend, and Population Viability for Harbor Seals in Iliamna Lake,Alaska

Harbor seals in Iliamna Lake, Alaska, are a small, isolated population, and one of only two freshwater populations of harbor seals in the world, yet little is known about their abundance or risk for extinction. Bayesian hierarchical models were used to estimate abundance and trend of this population. Observational models were developed from aerial survey and harvest data, and they included effects for time of year and time of day on survey counts. Underlying models of abundance and trend were based on a Leslie matrix model that used prior information on vital rates from the literature. We developed three scenarios for variability in the priors and used them as part of a sensitivity analysis. The models were fitted using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. The population production rate implied by the vital rate estimates was about 5% per year, very similar to the average annual harvest rate. After a period of growth in the 1980s, the population appears to be relatively stable at around 400 individuals. A population viability analysis assessing the risk of quasi‐extinction, defined as any reduction to 50 animals or below in the next 100 years, ranged from 1% to 3%, depending on the prior scenario. Although this is moderately low risk, it does not include genetic or catastrophic environmental events, which may have occurred to the population in the past, so our results should be applied cautiously.     

京津冀文化消费的影响因素与结构特征

在京津冀协同发展战略中,文化创意产业在取得初步发展成果的同时,还依旧面临着不少亟待解决的问题。采用问卷调查法实地走访采集区域居民文化消费数据,并进一步通过决策树算法进行数据挖掘,发现京津冀文化消费的影响因素及结构特征,据此提出打造区域共同文化品牌、保障居民收入持续平稳增长、针对青少年文化消费市场创新营销模式、培养其正确的文化价值观及文化创新能力等改进措施,从而优化推动京津冀文化消费市场协同发展的路径,打造互联互通、开放统一的区域文化消费市场,使区域居民文化消费需求成为促进文化产品供给的市场新动力。     

康区"三魔女",还是"康区三度母"——近代康区妇女精英研究

二十世纪上半叶康区三位著名妇女精英甘孜的孔萨?央金堪珠、德格的夏克? 泽旺志玛和瞻对的甲日?其美志玛在康区政治生活中扮演了重要的角色。她们之所以获得权力，是因为康区的传统习惯法以及清末和民国时期的法律都允许妇女在一个家族没有男性继承人的情况下继承名号和土司或头人的地位。为了获得和巩固政治地位，她们往往陷入多方势力的权力争斗中，这些势力包括其家族中的男性、来自其它家族的男性、地方军阀、中央政府，有时还有西藏地方政府。研究揭示了正是康区在夹缝中生存的各土司统治区域割裂、分权的性质为地方首领，特别是妇女领袖提供了较多的施展其政治才能的空间。     

Probabilistic Analysis of Dam Accidents Worldwide: Risk Assessment for Dams of Different Purposes in OECD and Non-OECD Countries with Focus on Time Trend Analysis

This study presents probabilistic analysis of dam accidents worldwide in the period 1911–2016. The accidents are classified by the dam purpose and by the country cluster, where they occurred, distinguishing between the countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and nonmember countries (non-OECD without China). A Bayesian hierarchical approach is used to model distributions of frequency and severity for accidents. This approach treats accident data as a multilevel system with subsets sharing specific characteristics. To model accident probabilities for a particular dam characteristic, this approach samples data from the entire data set, borrowing the strength across data set and enabling to model distributions even for subsets with scarce data. The modelled frequencies and severities are combined in frequency-consequence curves, showing that accidents for all dam purposes are more frequent in non-OECD (without China) and their maximum consequences are larger than in OECD countries. Multipurpose dams also have higher frequencies and maximum consequences than single-purpose dams. In addition, the developed methodology explicitly models time dependence to identify trends in accident frequencies over the analyzed period. Downward trends are found for almost all dam purposes confirming that technological development and implementation of safety measures are likely to have a positive impact on dam safety. The results of the analysis provide insights for dam risk management and decision-making processes by identifying key risk factors related to country groups and dam purposes as well as changes over time.     

社会网络对生活满意度的影响研究——基于京、沪、粤三地的分析

本研究以2008年和2009年在北京市、上海市和广东省进行的“中国家庭追踪调查”的数据为基础，运用多层线性模型和协方差模型探讨了社会网络对生活满意度的影响程度。研究表明，拜年网中朋友的比例、邻里互动频率和非正式社会参与都对生活满意度有积极影响，生活满意度与拜年网规模之间则呈现出“∩”型的相关关系。协方差分析结果表明，社会网络规模的扩大、朋友比例的上升和非正式社会参与频率的增加都有助于提高个人的生活满意度，但邻里互动频率的变化对个人生活满意度的提升作用还有待进一步的研究。     

Probabilistic population projections for countries with generalized HIV/AIDS epidemics

In 2015, the United Nations (UN) issued probabilistic population projections for all countries up to 2100, by simulating future levels of total fertility and life expectancy and combining the results using a standard cohort component projection method. For the 40 countries with generalized HIV/AIDS epidemics, the mortality projections used the Spectrum/Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) model, a complex, multistate model designed for short-term projections of policy-relevant quantities for the epidemic. We propose a simpler approach that is more compatible with existing UN projection methods for other countries. Changes in life expectancy are projected probabilistically using a simple time series regression and then converted to age- and sex-specific mortality rates using model life tables designed for countries with HIV/AIDS epidemics. These are then input to the cohort component method, as for other countries. The method performed well in an out-of-sample cross-validation experiment. It gives similar short-run projections to Spectrum/EPP, while being simpler and avoiding multistate modelling.     

Confidence regions for Pareto parameters from a single and independent samples

[Abstract] Based on a single and on two independent samples, joint confidence regions for parameters of Pareto distributions are proposed with minimum volume properties and without assigning the confidence level to dimensions. In the one-sample case, comparisons are made to former simultaneous confidence sets for Pareto parameters by means of simulation and a real data set. The two-sample case is studied in various set-ups and comprises simultaneous confidence regions for the shape parameters, the scale parameters, and higher-dimensional vectors of these parameters, where common shape and common scale models are also considered.     

抗战时期陕甘宁边区学前教育建设的经验与启示

抗战时期，陕甘宁边区在中国共产党的领导下进行了独具特色的学前教育建设活动，形成了独特的建设经验，主要包括提供保障措施、建立精简高效的组织架构、注重保教队伍的建设、关爱幼儿的身体健康、开展科学的教育教学工作。重现边区学前教育活动，探寻其成功经验，继承与发扬红色教育精神，对新时期幼儿的培养与培育有积极的现实指导意义。