中国孩子质量与数量的替代关系现状分析——基于分位数回归方法

文章利用"中国健康与营养调查"2009年度的相关数据,采用分位数回归方法对我国孩子质量与数量间的替代关系进行分析研究,证实在生育政策与社会经济发展双重效力下的我国家庭孩子数量的减少,同时使孩子的质量得以提高。此外,孩子的性别、父母的学历、家庭所处地理位置、家庭长期福利水平以及家中孩子的性别组成也对孩子的质量有显著影响。     

失业与通货膨胀的跨期替代——评2006年诺奖得主埃德蒙•费尔普斯的学术贡献

作为一名杰出的经济学家,2006年诺贝尔经济学奖得主埃德蒙·费尔普斯的一个重要学术贡献体现在对失业与通货膨胀方面的创新性分析上,包括建立“孤岛模型”,对菲利普斯曲线的修正以及自然失业率的提出等。他的理论研究加深了人们对于通货膨胀和失业之间的跨期替代关系的认识,并对经济学研究和经济决策产生了决定性的影响。     

Individual and Household Values of Mortality Reductions with Intrahousehold Bargaining

I derive alternative measures of maximum willingness to pay (WTP) and value of statistical life (VSL) for selfish members of two-person households who bargain efficiently over consumption of individual and household goods. There is then no systematic bias in letting one member conduct the valuation on behalf of the household. Public-good VSL may exceed private-good VSL when each member attaches (selfish) preferences to survival of the spouse, and to any income from a surviving spouse in period 2. When period 2 is a retirement period and household members’ incomes are fixed, interview surveys tend to overvalue VSL due to ignored negative effects of own survival on private of public pension budgets.JEL Classification: I12, G22, J17     

电子商务中的关键技术

走出网络经济的困境需要对电子商务中的关键技术进行深入分析、开发和应用。当前电子商务中的交易模型研究、电子商务交易规则、安全电子商务交易协议、商务智能、电子商务的供应链整合、物流与客户关系管理等是其发展的关键技术。     

福建省农村居民跨期消费区域比较分析——基于泉州、福州、南平三市的实证调研

消费、投资、出口是拉动经济增长的"三架马车",积极扩大内需,尤其是增加农村居民的消费需求是转变经济发展方式、促进经济平稳较快发展的重要举措。近年来,随着物价的上涨,居民的通胀预期不断加深,严重地制约了居民的消费需求,影响了居民的跨期消费行为。在此背景下,通过对福建省泉州、福州、南平三地的实证调研,结合生命周期理论及数理模型,比较分析三地农村居民跨期消费行为的共性与差异性,据此探讨形成其消费行为差异的原因,并提出提高收入、淡化通胀预期等对策建议。     

基于期望效用-熵风险度量的决策者风险态度

期望效用-熵风险度量将决策者对于风险的感知表示为风险行动的期望效用和状态的熵线性组合,其表达式中,期望效用-熵平衡系数为重要常数参数;展望理论中的实证表明决策者的风险态度和其财富水平相关,文章分析了一类特定决策者财富水平的变化对其风险态度的影响,通过Arrow-Pratt风险厌恶度建立了该类型决策者期望效用-熵平衡系数和财富水平之间的一个关系式,在此基础上分析和解释了一些特定决策者的某些决策行为。     

基于跨期约束的供应链动态质量激励机制设计

针对供应链质量问题频发的现状,运用单阶段静态质量激励模型揭示了供应商质量投入动机不足的原因,并提出基于跨期约束的供应链动态质量激励机制。研究表明:在基于跨期约束的供应链动态质量激励模型中,博弈末期的双方最优决策与单阶段静态模型一致,即供应商的质量投入水平等于零售商对供应商的转移支付系数,而博弈第一阶段的供应商质量投入水平将大于零售商对供应商的转移支付系数,从而实现了零售商对供应商质量投入的有效激励。最后通过算例仿真验证了当零售商与供应商的绝对风险规避系数、随机冲击的波动增大时,基于跨期约束的动态质量激励模型的供应链总体效用要明显高于静态模型,实现了供应链绩效的帕累托改进。     

Is Time-Discounting Hyperbolic or Subadditive?

Subadditive time discounting means that discounting over a delay is greater when the delay is divided into subintervals than when it is left undivided. This may produce the most important result usually attributed to hyperbolic discounting: declining impatience, or the inverse relationship between the discount rate and the magnitude of the delay. Three choice experiments were conducted to test for subadditive discounting, and to determine whether it is sufficient to explain declining impatience. All three experiments showed strong evidence of subadditive discounting, but there was no evidence of declining impatience. I conclude by questioning whether hyperbolic discounting is a plausible account of time preference.     

Discrete–Time Approximations of the Holmström–Milgrom Brownian–Motion Model of Intertemporal Incentive Provision

This paper studies the relation between discrete–time and continuous–time principal–agent models. We derive the continuous–time model as a limit of discrete–time models with ever shorter periods and show that optimal incentive schemes in the discrete–time models approximate the optimal incentive scheme in the continuous model, which is linear in accounts. Under the additional assumption that the principal observes only cumulative total profits at the end and the agent can destroy profits unnoticed, an incentive scheme that is linear in total profits is shown to be approximately optimal in the discrete–time model when the length of the period is small.