数据驱动下收货方质量偏好与电商配送服务质量优化

针对"互联网+大数据"优化电商配送服务质量问题，明确不同收货方的质量需求稳定性，引导电商根据收货方不同质量敏感性提供相对精准服务，提升配送服务质量。模拟投票结果的形成过程聚类得到收货方对服务质量偏好的记忆性特征：（1）"无记忆"型收货方；（2）"记忆"型收货方；（3）"不确定"型收货方；（4）收货方总体。进一步推导不同规划类型求解空间，设计得到"无记忆"型收货方动态规划精确求解方法，及其他三种类型近似求解粒子群算法。研究过程中，配送资源质量感知度被嵌入到模型约束；"无记忆"型收货方的质量需求规划问题转化为零库存策略最优解问题，进而证明存在精确解；"记忆"型收货方呈现出对质量感知的累积；"不确定"型收货方模型通过赋值即可得总体收货方表达式。结果表明：数据驱动研究框架借助大数据资源，使得电商更易通过收货方的质量偏好设计更加匹配的配送方案；不确定服务需求得到有效满足，投入成本的利用率更高；通过特征分类的方式，尽可能地抽取能够精确最优化的部分，缩小NP范围，提高整体求解的精确度。     

Integrating Operational and Organizational Aspects in Interdependent Infrastructure Network Recovery

Managing risk in infrastructure systems implies dealing with interdependent physical networks and their relationships with the natural and societal contexts. Computational tools are often used to support operational decisions aimed at improving resilience, whereas economics‐related tools tend to be used to address broader societal and policy issues in infrastructure management. We propose an optimization‐based framework for infrastructure resilience analysis that incorporates organizational and socioeconomic aspects into operational problems, allowing to understand relationships between decisions at the policy level (e.g., regulation) and the technical level (e.g., optimal infrastructure restoration). We focus on three issues that arise when integrating such levels. First, optimal restoration strategies driven by financial and operational factors evolve differently compared to those driven by socioeconomic and humanitarian factors. Second, regulatory aspects have a significant impact on recovery dynamics (e.g., effective recovery is most challenging in societies with weak institutions and regulation, where individual interests may compromise societal well‐being). And third, the decision space (i.e., available actions) in postdisaster phases is strongly determined by predisaster decisions (e.g., resource allocation). The proposed optimization framework addresses these issues by using: (1) parametric analyses to test the influence of operational and socioeconomic factors on optimization outcomes, (2) regulatory constraints to model and assess the cost and benefit (for a variety of actors) of enforcing specific policy‐related conditions for the recovery process, and (3) sensitivity analyses to capture the effect of predisaster decisions on recovery. We illustrate our methodology with an example regarding the recovery of interdependent water, power, and gas networks in Shelby County, TN (USA), with exposure to natural hazards.     

Bi-objective multi-resource scheduling problem for emergency relief operations

Abstract

Resource scheduling for emergency relief operations is complex as it has many constraints. However, an effective allocation and sequencing of resources are crucial for the minimization of the completion times in emergency relief operations. Despite the importance of such decisions, only a few mathematical models of emergency relief operations have been studied. This article presents a bi-objective mixed integer programming (MIP) that helps to minimize both the total weighted time of completion of the demand points and the makespan of the total emergency relief operation. A two-phase method is developed to solve the bi-objective MIP problem. Additionally, a case study of hospital network in the Melbourne metropolitan area is used to evaluate the model. The results indicate that the model can successfully support the decisions required in the optimal resource scheduling of emergency relief operations.     

近代中国农业现代化滞后原因初探

在近现代经济结构的现代化转型过程中 ,农业较之工业显得缓慢和滞后。这其中固然有中国固有的农业基础薄弱、战争破坏以及世界经济危机等多种因素的影响 ,但本文力求抛开这些表面上的因素 ,试从政府决策、市场结构、农业传统文化这三方面对近代中国农业现代化滞后原因加以探求。     

反梯度推进:西部产业升级的一种思路

反梯度推进理论的核心内容强调 :落后地区要根据自己的实际情况 ,直接引进世界最先进的技术 ,发展自己的高新技术 ,带动传统产业实现超越发展。近几年 ,我国提出的西部大开发战略 ,其实质就是要解决中国区域经济的均衡协调发展问题 ,实现区域经济的跨越式发展。而实现结构优化和产业升级则是根本出路。在这方面 ,反梯度推进理论为我国西部大开发过程中的产业升级提供了非常重要的启示。     

近代中国整合中西文化冲突的价值选择模式及现代启示

中国近代文化变迁的过程 ,在一定意义上表现为中西文化的冲突与整合的过程。为整合中西文化冲突 ,近代中国先后采取了文化传统主义、文化折中主义、文化虚无主义与文化综合创新等价值选择模式。近代文化整合的经验教训启示我们 ,在新时期文化建设问题上 ,必须正确处理文化的一元与多元、整体性与可分性、时代性与民族性的关系 ,坚持走综合创新之路     

On the Convergence of the Monte Carlo Maximum Likelihood Method for Latent Variable Models

While much used in practice, latent variable models raise challenging estimation problems due to the intractability of their likelihood. Monte Carlo maximum likelihood (MCML), as proposed by Geyer & Thompson (1992 ), is a simulation-based approach to maximum likelihood approximation applicable to general latent variable models. MCML can be described as an importance sampling method in which the likelihood ratio is approximated by Monte Carlo averages of importance ratios simulated from the complete data model corresponding to an arbitrary value of the unknown parameter. This paper studies the asymptotic (in the number of observations) performance of the MCML method in the case of latent variable models with independent observations. This is in contrast with previous works on the same topic which only considered conditional convergence to the maximum likelihood estimator, for a fixed set of observations. A first important result is that when is fixed, the MCML method can only be consistent if the number of simulations grows exponentially fast with the number of observations. If on the other hand, is obtained from a consistent sequence of estimates of the unknown parameter, then the requirements on the number of simulations are shown to be much weaker.     

一类带有分布参数系统的最佳控制

本文给出一类非均匀弦的横向振动的最佳控制，推广了P C Park的结果。这一结果同样适用于同类型振动问题。     

试论「～と会う」和「～に会う」的用法和区别

在学习和运用日语过程中 ,格助词是比较难以准确掌握和运用的 ,人们往往习惯从格助词本身去分析其语法功能。从动词词义决定其格助词在句子中的构式的角度看 ,格助词 [と ]表示行为动作的共同主体 ,格助词[に ]表示行为动作的承受者。进一步说 [～と会う ]所表达的这一 [会う ]的行为动作是双方共同的行为动作。[～に会う ]所表达的这一 [会う ]的行为动作是单方面的行为动作 ,另一方是这一行为动作的承受者     

顺应历史发展潮流,重塑多元价值理论--论深化改革与促进发展的经济学价值论基础

具有历史局限性的劳动价值论受到实践挑战并被其他理论超越是不可避免的.社会经济发展的条件、动力和主体多元化了,与其相适应的经济价值论也必然要多元化.商品价值的本质是人的需求同商品之间的关系.商品价值的决定是一个多层次多元的综合体系,它由"天人合一"论、供求均衡论、生产要素论和需求要素论所构成,劳动价值论只是其中的"特例".生产要素贡献论与合法产权收益论是市场经济条件下必然的收益分配原则,它对"一家独享"和"吃大锅饭"的不平等都是排斥的.劳动价值论所认定的剥削只是一种极端情形,而依据多元价值论则能对剥削作出更具普遍性的说明.资本的性质及作用取决于它的来源和使用方式.中国现阶段的大多数民营企业家为国为民做出了重大贡献,不应一概斥之为剥削阶级."全心全意依靠工人阶级"的实质是指始终要依靠先进生产力的代表,而不是固定不变的哪部分人群,它同"科学技术是第一生产力"应当是统一的.随着生产发展和社会进步,中产阶级壮大不可避免,但这不是坏事,毕竟我们革命和建设不是要制造更多无产者.中产阶级在社会阶级或阶层构成中占相当大的一个多数是实现社会稳定和发展的重要条件.