治理的发轫与嬗变：中国历史视野下的考察

国内学术界一般以西方学术发展史作为背景，把治理作为一种社会互动来进行研究。中国历史视野下的治理，发轫于中国社会生活，其内涵最初主要是为了获取生存资料，即有收成才能够形成秩序也就是治理。从“乂”这个象形文字来看，乂就是治理，其原意为“收割”。不过，围绕生存资料的生产和分配逐渐产生了更加丰富的社会权力关系，而巩固和拓展这种权力关系则使得构筑更加严格的秩序成为必然。神秘感是构筑秩序的重要依据，而赋予仪式以神秘感的则是觋、巫等知识群体，他们将天、帝、王、人通过仪式联系在一起，建构起一套以礼为基础的秩序。但是，西周末年，觋、巫的神秘感被世俗的君权摧毁以后，“君臣秩序”以及由此构筑起来的社会秩序都被颠覆，从而导致“君臣之礼既坏”和“礼坏乐崩”的情形。“以智力相雄长”不仅表现在王室内部、诸侯之间、社会层面上，而且也表现在知识分子身上。从此以后，士绝大多数以追逐爵禄而骄天下为荣，以至于两千多年来一直存在“士贱而君肆”的情形。“君士互动”的治理模式，正是随着神秘主义的礼的崩溃而崩溃的。     

货币政策反应函数渠道对金融周期影响时变机制的实证研究

在关于货币政策影响经济主体风险承担水平,进而影响金融周期波动机制的研究中,基于风险承担渠道的相关研究较为成熟.区别于以往相关研究多关注货币政策实际采取的立场,文章基于货币政策反应函数渠道探讨了数量型与价格型货币政策反应函数对金融周期波动影响的时变机制.滚动回归的实证结果显示:无论数量型货币政策规则还是价格型货币政策规则,货币政策对信贷波动反应的敏感性主要影响金融周期的波动,但在价格型货币政策规则下,基于信贷视角观察金融周期波动时,货币政策信贷敏感性与货币政策资产价格敏感性对金融周期影响差异较小;较之于价格型货币政策规则,货币政策对信贷波动反应的敏感性在数量型货币政策规则下,对金融周期波动的影响更显著,并在一定程度上表现出随时间扩大的趋势.文章的创新之处在于:强调了货币政策通过政策反应函数渠道而非以往研究中较多关注的狭义风险承担渠道影响金融周期波动的事实,并构建计量模型对货币政策反应函数渠道影响金融周期波动的时变机制进行了详细刻画.     

“一带一路”相关文件政策强度与省域经济开放度关系研究——“一带一路”沿线18个省份实证分析

文章的特色和理论意义在于,尝试量化"一带一路"沿线18个省份"一带一路"相关政策文件,以设计政策效力、政策措施与政策保障的评判要点为基础,确定政策措施强度和政策保障强度.细致讨论"一带一路"文件的政策强度与经济开放度提升之间的关系,并讨论该关系在东西部地区的差异以及政策保障强度在政策措施强度与经济开放度关系之中的调节效应.研究发现:政策措施强度能够正向促进省域经济开放度的提升;在经济开放度高于10％的省份中,政策保障强度正向调节政策措施强度与经济开放度提升之间的关系,政策措施强度和政策保障强度之间存在互补关系;政策措施强度中资金融通强度对于沿线省域经济开放度的提升有着最显著的正向影响,政策沟通强度对于沿线省域经济开放度的提升影响不显著;政策措施强度对省域经济开放度的提升存在地区差别,西部地区更注重"一带一路"倡议所带来的机会.建议:"一带一路"沿线省份在政策设计上,不仅要对政策沟通、设施联通、贸易畅通、资金融通和民心相通等内容作出合理规划和布局,还应对保障机制作出可操作性的安排.     

Policy Learning and Transformational Change: University Policies on Sexual Harassment

ABSTRACT

This essay comes out of my experience as an attendee at the #MeTooPoliSci short course in the American Political Science Association meeting in 2018. I use the framework of policy feedback theory to explain the difficulty in reforming sexual harassment policies at universities and prescribe some actions we as scholars can take to improve the situations at our places of employment.     

On the power of goodness-of-fit tests for the exponential distribution under progressive Type-II censoring

The aim of this article is to review existing goodness-of-fit tests for the exponential distribution under progressive Type-II censoring and to provide some new ideas and adjustments. In particular, we consider two-parameter exponentially distributed random variables and adapt the proposed test procedures to our scenario if necessary. Then, we compare their power by an extensive simulation study. Furthermore, we propose five new test procedures that provide reasonable alternatives to those already known.     

Some count-based nonparametric tests for circular symmetry of a bivariate distribution

In this paper, we revisit the problem of testing of the hypothesis of circular symmetry of a bivariate distribution. We propose some nonparametric tests based on sector counts. These include tests based on chi-square goodness-of-fit test, the classical likelihood ratio, mean deviation, and the range. The proposed tests are easy to implement and the exact null distributions for small sample sizes of the test statistics are obtained. Two examples with small and large data sets are given to illustrate the application of the tests proposed. For small and moderate sample sizes, the performances of the proposed tests are evaluated using empirical powers (empirical sizes are also reported). Also, we evaluate the performance of these count-based tests with adaptations of several well-known tests such as the Kolmogorov–Smirnov-type tests, tests based on kernel density estimator, and the Wilcoxon-type tests. It is observed that among the count-based tests the likelihood ratio test performs better.     

A Framework to Understand Extreme Space Weather Event Probability

An extreme space weather event has the potential to disrupt or damage infrastructure systems and technologies that many societies rely on for economic and social well‐being. Space weather events occur regularly, but extreme events are less frequent, with a small number of historical examples over the last 160 years. During the past decade, published works have (1) examined the physical characteristics of the extreme historical events and (2) discussed the probability or return rate of select extreme geomagnetic disturbances, including the 1859 Carrington event. Here we present initial findings on a unified framework approach to visualize space weather event probability, using a Bayesian model average, in the context of historical extreme events. We present disturbance storm time (Dst ) probability (a proxy for geomagnetic disturbance intensity) across multiple return periods and discuss parameters of interest to policymakers and planners in the context of past extreme space weather events. We discuss the current state of these analyses, their utility to policymakers and planners, the current limitations when compared to other hazards, and several gaps that need to be filled to enhance space weather risk assessments.     

Enoch Powell,empires, immigrants and education

2018 marks the 50th anniversary of Enoch Powell’s infamous ‘Rivers of Blood’ speech, an intervention that is still viewed as one of the most incendiary statements of the perceived decay and violence likely to follow legislation intended to assure minoritised British citizens of equal rights regardless of their ethnic origin. In this essay, Sally Tomlinson (one of Britain’s foremost multicultural theorists) reflects on Powell’s legacy and the contemporary scene where in the US, UK and across Europe, White resentment and fear is increasingly shaping ‘mainstream’ debates about nationhood, migration and education.     

Language roulette – the effect of random placement on refugees’ labour market integration

Placement of refugees and subsequent labour market integration within a host country represents a key challenge for policymakers and has emerged as one of the most divisive topics in the public debate. Immigration policy in Switzerland adopts random placement of asylum seekers across its different language regions. Hence, this policy allows to estimate the causal effect of language skills on employment chances, as refugees are exogenously placed across regions where the spoken language could either match or deviate from individual language skills. The results of this ‘natural experiment’ indicate substantially higher probabilities of finding employment when asylum seekers are placed in regions with a lingua franca that matches their individual language skills. Additionally, the findings suggest that language course participation can offset the reduced likelihood of employment in cases of a language mismatch. While random placement of refugees may be desirable for political reasons, it is detrimental to the economic integration process. Thereby, the study draws relevant conclusions for a larger European immigration policy.