Measuring and Achieving Equity in Multiperiod Emergency Material Allocation

Emergency material allocation is an important part of postdisaster emergency logistics that is significant for improving rescue effectiveness and reducing disaster losses. However, the traditional single‐period allocation model often causes local surpluses or shortages and high cost, and prevents the system from achieving an equitable or optimal multiperiod allocation. To achieve equitable allocation of emergency materials in the case of serious shortages relative to the demand by victims, this article introduces a multiperiod model for allocation of emergency materials to multiple affected locations (using an exponential utility function to reflect the disutility loss due to material shortfalls), and illustrates the relationship between equity of allocations and the cost of emergency response. Finally, numerical examples are presented to demonstrate both the feasibility and the usefulness of the proposed model for achieving multiperiod equitable allocation of emergency material among multiple disaster locations. The results indicate that the introduction of a nonlinear utility function to reflect the disutility of large shortfalls can make the material allocation fairer, and minimize large losses due to shortfalls. We found that achieving equity has a significant but not unreasonable impact on emergency costs. We also illustrate that using differing utility functions for different types of materials adds an important dimension of flexibility.     

The practice of deliberative policy analysis in the context of political and cultural challenges: lessons from Thailand

ABSTRACT

This article draws upon insight from a study of those involved in introducing deliberative policy analysis in Thailand at the city scale and presents lessons for both policy practitioners and scholars. The design of each deliberative forum differed, depending on lessons learned from previous forums and the consensus that emerged as a result of deliberation amongst forum facilitators. The underlying principle of this kind of deliberative design is to make deliberative processes authentic, by avoiding coercion, inclusive, by engaging stakeholders who bring forth different ideas, and impactful. To make these forums more exciting, deliberative practices are often linked to other attractive discourses, such as those surrounding smart cities, creative spaces and inclusive development. The case of Thailand sheds light on emerging challenges involved in the practice of deliberative policy analysis in the context of both national political regimes that are not democracies and those in the East.     

Comparing Possibly Misspecified Forecasts

Abstract

Recent work has emphasized the importance of evaluating estimates of a statistical functional (such as a conditional mean, quantile, or distribution) using a loss function that is consistent for the functional of interest, of which there is an infinite number. If forecasters all use correctly specified models free from estimation error, and if the information sets of competing forecasters are nested, then the ranking induced by a single consistent loss function is sufficient for the ranking by any consistent loss function. This article shows, via analytical results and realistic simulation-based analyses, that the presence of misspecified models, parameter estimation error, or nonnested information sets, leads generally to sensitivity to the choice of (consistent) loss function. Thus, rather than merely specifying the target functional, which narrows the set of relevant loss functions only to the class of loss functions consistent for that functional, forecast consumers or survey designers should specify the single specific loss function that will be used to evaluate forecasts. An application to survey forecasts of U.S. inflation illustrates the results.     

京津冀协同发展背景下二语学习者语际语用能力提升策略研究

京津冀协同发展是近期华北地区的一个重要特点,这就意味着对科技人才的素质有了新的要求,对科技人才二语语际语用能力的要求也大大提高,而河北省大学生二语学习过程中的语际语用能力相对薄弱,缺乏竞争力;本文通过对在校大学生的语言策略培训,创造真实语言环境,改变传统课堂模式和教学内容,充分发挥学习者的潜力,提高语言应用能力和跨文化交际的能力,因而增强学习者的综合竞争力,以满足新的经济发展情况下对人才素质的要求。     

Note passing as gendered practices of public ambiguity in a hyper‐masculine organization

This article explores a surprising and seemingly mundane organizational practice: passing notes during professional meetings. Based on 34 in‐depth interviews with women in a hyper‐masculine organization — the Israeli military — this study focuses on what I term gendered practices of public ambiguity. It demonstrates how these practices shed light on three interrelated paths to power at work: (i) practices of public intimacy between men; (ii) practices of women's degradation by men; and (iii) practices of recognition claims by women. The tension between the publicity inherent in the routine passing of notes and the ambiguity of their contents calls for a more nuanced theorization of gendered power practices, which transcends the accepted dichotomy of doing and undoing gender, reproducing or challenging the symbolic gender order. The findings show that gendered micro‐practices can become polysemic symbolic spaces in which women redirect the flow of power, if only temporarily and locally, and turn it into a multidirectional and multi‐agentic resource. The conceptual contribution of these findings is discussed in terms of the positioning of women in hyper‐masculine environments as pragmatic subjects who (re‐)construct mechanisms of power out of the restricted repertoire available to them.     

康养旅游相关概念辨析与国际研究进展

康养旅游(wellness tourism)隶属于健康旅游(health tourism)的范畴,是新近国际旅游研究的热点领域。文章通过对康养旅游概念的源起及其流变的梳理,辨明了康养旅游与健康旅游、温泉疗法、疗养旅游、医疗旅游等相关概念的关系。研究表明,康养旅游的产品形式会根据不同国家和地区的资源禀赋、健康政策、消费市场的特点而产生变化,因此,不同地区的康养旅游内涵、构成与产品形式是学术界研究的焦点之一。而在康养旅游的功能分析上,主要聚焦于对人的身体、精神以及生活质量等方面。最后,康养旅游者出游前的动机、旅游中的体验与游后的满意度和行为意向构成了康养旅游者研究的主体内容。康养旅游是中国旅游业转型发展的一条可行道路,应从国家政策保障、目的地建设和公民健康观念入手,培育中国康养旅游市场,提升全民健康水平。同时,文章也为未来中国康养旅游的研究议题提出了相关建议。     

请求策略理论研究简

“请求”属于一种常见的言语行为，而“请求策略”是语用学相对集中的研究领域，但是理论上的阐释往往不足。因此，本研究选择请求策略的相关理论为研究对象，在介绍请求定义及组成的基础上，论述了交际能力与语用能力、语言语用能力与社交语用能力、言语行为理论、面子理论、礼貌理论等内容，并且进一步探讨了相关理论在请求策略研究上的应用。     

Statistical inference for the Gompertz distribution based on Type-II progressively hybrid censored data

In this article, the statistical inference for the Gompertz distribution based on Type-II progressively hybrid censored data is discussed. The estimation of the parameters for Gompertz distribution is obtained using maximum likelihood method (MLE) and Bayesian method under three different loss functions. We also proved the existence and uniqueness of the MLE. The one-sample Bayesian prediction intervals are obtained. The work is done for different values of the parameters. We apply the Monto Carlo simulation to compare the proposed methods, also an example is discussed to construct the Prediction intervals.     

Recovery of functions from transformed moments: A unified approach

Two approximations recovering the functions from their transformed moments are proposed. The upper bounds for the uniform rate of convergence are derived. In addition, the comparisons of the estimates of the cumulative distribution function and its density function with the empirical distribution and the kernel density estimates are conducted via a simulation study. The plots of recovered functions are presented for several examples as well.     

Estimating function method for product autoregressive models

The first-order product autoregressive (PAR(1)) model introduced by McKenzie in 1982 McKenzie, E. D. (1982). Product autoregression: A time series characterization of the gamma distribution. Journal of Applied Probability 19:463–468. [Google Scholar] did not attract the attention of practitioners due to the unavailability of a proper estimation method. This article proposes an estimating function (EF) method to fill the gap. In particular, we suggest an optimal combination of linear and quadratic EFs to overcome the problem of parameter identification. The procedure is applied to Weibull and Gamma PAR(1) models. Simulation and data analysis show that the proposed method performs better than the existing methods.