体验型产品消费行为的羊群效应及机理研究——基于电影行业消费行为的实证解释

互联网环境下消费者购买体验型产品时对网络信息的依赖性很大。因此，研究社交媒体影响下体验型产品的消费者决策选择行为具有现实意义。本文以电影行业的票房偏离及消费跟风现象为切入点，探究体验型产品的羊群效应并对其产生的内在机理进行解释。采集艺恩资讯的票房数据以及豆瓣的电影基本信息及影评等数据作为研究样本，从消费者"羊群行为"视角分析其对电影票房的影响。研究发现：在控制了质量等内生性影响之后，消费者羊群效应依然存在；产品特征信息对羊群效应起到了调节作用，从而形成理性跟随；采用预期差异模型可以解释消费者实现理性跟随的过程。研究结论对于电影行业宏观政策制定及对体验型产品合理进行营销推广提供了理论基础与实证依据。     

试论美国电影中的英雄情结

“英雄类”影片是好莱坞制造的最具轰动效应的神话之一。本文拟对美国影片中塑造的各类英雄形象加以梳理与阐释 ,并进而对这些英雄片背后的英雄情结进行剖析 ,以期管窥美国影片中一些深层文化心理机制     

类型电影与观众态度

根据电影叙事是否依据一个形式惯例传统,电影理论把电影分为类型电影和非类型电影。事实上,来自于既有惯例的类型经验影响着我们从日常生活到艺术欣赏很多行为中所具有的心理模式,我们的相关态度在很大程度上也以此建立。本文讨论的是在观看类型电影的时候观众的欣赏态度,并将这个态度分为"作为基础的惯例经验"、"欣赏时建构的心理时空"和"态度的娱乐指向"三个部分,从中可以看到三个部分的相互关系和观众欣赏类型电影的心理特征。     

The organizational shaping of collective identity: The case of lesbian and gay film festivals in New York

Using information gathered during fieldwork on New York lesbian and gay film festival organizations, this paper argues that scholarship on identity has not paid sufficient attention to the organizational mediation of collective identity. The shape of collective identity—how internal instabilities and diversities are accommodated, in this case—depends not only on the emergent characteristics of the “collective,” but also on the resolution of challenges particular to organizational fields. Two very differently conceived lesbian and gay festival organizations, sites at which decision making about collective identity is ongoing and self-conscious, are examined. The analysis traces how each responds to two related tasks: maintaining community legitimacy, which requires racial diversification, and surviving within an altered institutional environment. Rather than imposition from “above” or construction from “below,” the adaptive responses by organizations (to changes in both community expectations and the resource environment) transform the collective identity formulations reaching public visibility. Earlier versions of this paper were presented at the Colloquium Series of the Center for Lesbian and Gay Studies, City University of New York, 1995, and at the Annual Meeting of the American Sociological Association, Washington, DC, 1995.     

赏析邱吉尔的"对德宣言"

邱吉尔的Speech in H itler’s Invasion of the U.S.S.R.是一篇语言与结构俱佳的演讲稿。从分析其文体的角度出发,引导读者赏析原文中大量使用的平行,重复,押韵,比喻等修辞手法是如何使演讲稿达到音,形,义的完美结合,从而在听众心里产生强烈的共鸣。     

类型电影与类型批评

无论在传统电影批评还是现代电影批评的领域,类型批评都是重要的不可或缺的批评方法之一。它的研究对象类型电影的产生是大工业生产和艺术审美合力的产物;类型电影的本质内涵是模式化,它的创新是在模式基础上的破格;类型批评的历史和类型电影的创作并不同步,在经历了现代批评理论的洗礼后,类型批评呈现出综合化的跨学科的研究趋向。     

“黑色”影像里的社会与人生——黑色电影研究

黑色电影是20世纪四五十年代在美国出现的一批影片的总称.黑色电影之所以在美国产生是有其复杂的社会原因的.黑色电影的特征首先是人物主角至少一男一女,他们之间充满着情欲与争斗;其次是具有黑色调子情绪的视角风格;第三是具有相同或相近的叙事模式.黑色电影在艺术上有它的与众不同之处.中国电影可借鉴黑色电影的某些艺术手法来丰富自己和发展商业电影.     

Residual analysis for spatial point processes (with discussion)

Summary.  We define residuals for point process models fitted to spatial point pattern data, and we propose diagnostic plots based on them. The residuals apply to any point process model that has a conditional intensity; the model may exhibit spatial heterogeneity, interpoint interaction and dependence on spatial covariates. Some existing ad hoc methods for model checking (quadrat counts, scan statistic, kernel smoothed intensity and Berman's diagnostic) are recovered as special cases. Diagnostic tools are developed systematically, by using an analogy between our spatial residuals and the usual residuals for (non-spatial) generalized linear models. The conditional intensity λ plays the role of the mean response. This makes it possible to adapt existing knowledge about model validation for generalized linear models to the spatial point process context, giving recommendations for diagnostic plots. A plot of smoothed residuals against spatial location, or against a spatial covariate, is effective in diagnosing spatial trend or co-variate effects. Q – Q -plots of the residuals are effective in diagnosing interpoint interaction.     

AN ALGORITHM FOR THE CONSTRUCTION OF OPTIMAL OR NEAR-OPTIMAL CHANGE-OVER DESIGNS

This paper presents an algorithm for the construction of optimal or near optimal change-over designs for arbitrary numbers of treatments, periods and units. Previous research on optimality has been either theoretical or has resulted in limited tabulations of small optimal designs. The algorithm consists of a number of steps:first find an optimal direct treatment effects design, ignoring residual effects, and then optimise this class of designs with respect to residual effects. Poor designs are avoided by judicious application of the (M, S)-optimality criterion, and modifications of it, to appropriate matrices. The performance of the algorithm is illustrated by examples.     

BATHTUB-TYPE CURVES IN RELIABILITY AND BEYOND

Finding optimal, or at least good, maintenance and repair policies is crucial in reliability engineering. Likewise, describing life phases of human mortality is important when determining social policy or insurance premiums. In these tasks, one searches for distributions to fit data and then makes inferences about the population(s). In the present paper, we focus on bathtub‐type distributions and provide a view of certain problems, methods and solutions, and a few challenges, that can be encountered in reliability engineering, survival analysis, demography and actuarial science.