合作与破裂:山东地方官与大刀会关系研究

山东地方官对大刀会、拳会的宽容的政策与态度由来已久，早在甲午中日战争期间，官军就与大刀会形成默契，在共同缉捕盗匪方面取得显著成效，直至义和团在中外联合势力的绞杀下失败，在此期间，大刀会、拳会等名目的民间团体组织与官府的关系就处在一种半合作半破裂的游离状态，即这种宽容政策具有一定的延续性。就义和团运动而言，大刀会等民间会社势力仅仅是为义和团运动构筑的可能性力量而已，程度很高，却极不稳定，它们有待于官方的开掘、引导与锤炼及外力催逼，即官方对刀会、拳会的宽容态度与政策，以及西方列强、教会势力的威逼现实这两种因素，而前者更为重要。     

Life and labor on the internal colonial edge: Political economy of kolberi in Rojhelat

Through the investigation of kolberi (cross-border labor), this paper sheds light on the state’s policy of de-development (or internal colonialization) of the Kurdish region (known as Rojhelat) in Iran. While the most dangerous form of labor, kolberi has become a dominant employment opportunity for Rojhelat Kurds in the last decade. There are no Iranian state laws criminalizing kolberi, and yet those laborers die on a regular basis—being shot or thrown off mountain cliffs by the state forces, stepping into minefields, and so forth. Nevertheless, there is not a single scholarly paper on this subject. Using the mixed methods research approach, our study analyzes the existing data along with in-depth interviews with 20 people who are currently engaged in kolberi to contextualize this understudied phenomenon. Our finding demonstrates that kolberi is a direct outcome of a uni-ethno-religious policies of development and part and parcel of the state's Perso-Shi‘ification strategy in Kurdistan. Therefore, kolberi is more of a political phenomenon than an economic one.     

彝族社会中"尔普"形式的变迁

凉山彝族社会中的“尔普”(份子钱 )是一种礼物交换形式。对“尔普”的研究和分析 ,可有助于人们理解凉山彝族社会。“尔普”本来是维系彝族传统社会宗族内部亲属组织的纽带 ,由于文化变迁的原因 ,后来发展出了跨宗族的“尔普”新形式 ,又由于族群互动的原因 ,还产生了跨越族群的“尔普”形式。“尔普”形式的变迁是族群互动下的一种文化变迁形式 ,其动力来源于彝、汉两族的互动关系。彝族社会中“尔普”的变迁形式是人类学关于族群互动下的文化变迁理论的鲜活事例。     

Analysis of a two incongruent arrivals and services M/G/1 queue with random feedback

A queuing system with two incongruent arrivals and services is considered. Two kinds of customers enter the system by Poisson process and the service times are assumed to have general distribution. After first kind service completion, it may feedback to repeat the first service, leave the system or go to give second service. The same policy is applied for the other kind of customer. All stochastic processes involved in this system are independent. We derive the probability generating function for each kind and for the system that yield the performance measures. Some numerical approaches examined the validity of the results.     

A Strange Kind of Science: Making Sense of the Millennium Villages Project

Abstract

The Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) are often critiqued as a strategy of social engineering. This analysis would seem to be supported by the case of the Millennium Villages Project (MVP), the world's leading programme for the achievement of the MDGs. At the level of its discursive articulation, the MVP appears as a scientific ‘proof of concept’ for the comprehensive engineering of neoliberal social orders. But its evaluation methodology has been widely criticised for a lack of scientific rigour, and field research that I conducted in the Ruhiira Millennium Village in Uganda in 2013 revealed serious problems of implementation. I argue that the MVP is better understood not as a strategy of social engineering but as the staging of a social fantasy in which the constitutive antagonisms of capitalist development are concealed. In this fantasy space, the MDGs function to fill the gap between the promise of development and the impossibility of capitalism without poverty.     

Bootstrapping Realized Volatility

We propose bootstrap methods for a general class of nonlinear transformations of realized volatility which includes the raw version of realized volatility and its logarithmic transformation as special cases. We consider the independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) bootstrap and the wild bootstrap (WB), and prove their first‐order asymptotic validity under general assumptions on the log‐price process that allow for drift and leverage effects. We derive Edgeworth expansions in a simpler model that rules out these effects. The i.i.d. bootstrap provides a second‐order asymptotic refinement when volatility is constant, but not otherwise. The WB yields a second‐order asymptotic refinement under stochastic volatility provided we choose the external random variable used to construct the WB data appropriately. None of these methods provides third‐order asymptotic refinements. Both methods improve upon the first‐order asymptotic theory in finite samples.