Bayesian sample size determination for phase IIA clinical trials using historical data and semi‐parametric prior's elicitation

The Simon's two‐stage design is the most commonly applied among multi‐stage designs in phase IIA clinical trials. It combines the sample sizes at the two stages in order to minimize either the expected or the maximum sample size. When the uncertainty about pre‐trial beliefs on the expected or desired response rate is high, a Bayesian alternative should be considered since it allows to deal with the entire distribution of the parameter of interest in a more natural way. In this setting, a crucial issue is how to construct a distribution from the available summaries to use as a clinical prior in a Bayesian design. In this work, we explore the Bayesian counterparts of the Simon's two‐stage design based on the predictive version of the single threshold design. This design requires specifying two prior distributions: the analysis prior, which is used to compute the posterior probabilities, and the design prior, which is employed to obtain the prior predictive distribution. While the usual approach is to build beta priors for carrying out a conjugate analysis, we derived both the analysis and the design distributions through linear combinations of B‐splines. The motivating example is the planning of the phase IIA two‐stage trial on anti‐HER2 DNA vaccine in breast cancer, where initial beliefs formed from elicited experts' opinions and historical data showed a high level of uncertainty. In a sample size determination problem, the impact of different priors is evaluated.     

Efficient Inference for Longitudinal Data Varying‐coefficient Regression Models

Informative identification of the within‐subject correlation is essential in longitudinal studies in order to forecast the trajectory of each subject and improve the validity of inferences. In this paper, we fit this correlation structure by employing a time adaptive autoregressive error process. Such a process can automatically accommodate irregular and possibly subject‐specific observations. Based on the fitted correlation structure, we propose an efficient two‐stage estimator of the unknown coefficient functions by using a local polynomial approximation. This procedure does not involve within‐subject covariance matrices and hence circumvents the instability of calculating their inverses. The asymptotic normality of resulting estimators is established. Numerical experiments were conducted to check the finite sample performance of our method and an example of an application involving a set of medical data is also illustrated.     

大数据与微时代： 虚拟社会公共服务体系的双重建构

大数据与微时代引发了虚拟社会的多重变革，新的服务理念和服务模式呼之欲出，虚拟社会公共服务的走向、模式、内涵正在发生深刻变化。但是受到推送途径、参与机制、数据基础、保障措施等因素的制约，虚拟社会公共服务的质量和效率相对有限，其体系面临着解构与重构。大数据与微时代是当前虚拟社会公共服务体系建构中不可或缺的重要因素，通过培育公共服务精神、推进虚拟社会公共服务均等化发展、强化多元参与主体间的良性互动、完善虚拟社会公共服务体系建构秩序等途径，科学、合理地对其加以运用，将会有效助推虚拟社会公众服务的不断创新和发展。     

构建“三全育人”的高校教育协同育人体系——以西南大学文化与社会发展学院的特色育人实践为例

以西南大学文化与社会发展学院特色育人实践为例,探讨“三全育人”理念下的高校教育协同育人体系建构的框架、实施路径、实践效果和经验启示。基于“三全育人”的内涵,着力建构育人理念创新协同体系、育人过程要素协同互动体系、育人场域要素协同融合体系和育人主体协同合作体系,并结合十余年的高校教育教学实践探索和实践效果,验证“三全育人”协同育人体系建构的作用与价值、经验与启示。     

论思维方式变革的动力

思维方式在本性上是一种概念系统,概念是思维的要素,思维方式的变革在一定意义上也是概念的发展。由于概念自身的凝固性、隔离性的特点,决定了反思是思维方式变革的动力,而反思最根本的特点就是把思维作为对象,是对思维的思维。反思通过怀疑,批判、否定,更新、建构等环节促使思维方式的发展。     

我国城市土地供应方式改革探析

不同的供地方式其所产生的土地收益差异明显。在目前我国城市化快速发展时期,我国的城市土地供应还存在着土地有偿使用范围小、经营性用地供应的市场化程度低以及隐形交易、多头供地等问题。因此,要想提高土地收益,就须采取建立国有土地储备制度、加强土地监管、规范土地审批和交易行为、提高土地市场化交易程度、建立土地信息发布制度等措施。     

Competition and Coordination in Two‐Tier Public Service Systems under Government Fiscal Policy

As a result of government budgetary limits and rapid market growth, many public service systems—such as health care—are characterized by extensive customer wait times that have become a serious problem. This problem might be solved by allowing private firms to enter these markets, which would provide customers with a choice between a free (governmental) public service provider (SP) and a fee‐charging (or “toll”) private SP. In such a two‐tier service system, the two SPs are differentiated by service quality and cost efficiency. This study focuses on the competition and coordination issues for two‐tier service systems with customers who are sensitive to both service quality and delay. The free system attempts to maximize its expected total customer utility with limited capacity, whereas the toll system attempts to maximize its profit. Neither goal is aligned with the social welfare goal of the public service. To achieve the social welfare goal, the government plays a crucial role in coordinating the two‐tier service system via the budget, the tradeoff of social members' goals, and tax‐subsidy policies. Using a mixed duopoly game, we establish Nash equilibrium strategies and identify the conditions for the existence of the two‐tier service system. We employ several interesting and counter‐intuitive managerial insights generated by the model to show that the public service can be delivered more efficiently via customer choice and SP competition. In addition, we show that a relatively low tax‐subsidy rate can almost perfectly coordinate the two SPs to achieve most of the maximum possible benefit of the two‐tier service system.     

施肥量与垄作方式对牛蒡子出苗率及苗期生长的影响

从施肥量（高肥、中肥、低肥）、垄作方式（上垄、下垄、下垄覆膜）两因素对牛蒡子的出苗及苗期生长情况做了一些系统观察和分析．结果表明：低肥，上垄有利于出苗，高肥有利于苗期的生长．此研究可为牛蒡子的进一步开发利用及科研提供科学依据．     

搞好"五个统筹"加快民族地区小康社会建设

党的十六大明确提出了全面建设小康社会的宏伟目标,十六届三中全会提出的"五个统筹"是实现这一目标的重大举措.民族地区要按照"五个统筹"的要求,完善社会主义市场经济体制,加快小康社会建设,必须从国民经济的战略高度,研究和解决"三农"问题;立足优势互补,构筑独具特色的经济区和经济带;集中各民族的智慧和力量,加快生产发展、生活富裕、生态良好的文明步伐;在更大范围、更广领域和更高层次上参与国际经济合作与竞争.这样民族地区实现全面小康社会就有了坚强的保障.     

民族平等团结思想与全面建设小康社会

本文从历史发展的角度分别论述了中国共产党三代领导集体对马克思主义民族平等团结思想的继承和发展,指出十六大提出的全面建设小康社会的奋斗目标是在马克思主义与时俱进、理论创新的精神实质下对民族平等团结思想的进一步丰富和发展,认为在新世纪新阶段继续坚持民族平等、维护民族团结,巩固社会主义新型民族关系,对实现全面建设小康社会的宏伟目标均有着重要的理论意义和现实意义。