REGIONAL HOUSE PRICE DYNAMICS AND VOTING BEHAVIOR IN THE FOMC

This paper examines the impact of house price gaps in Federal Reserve districts on the voting behavior in the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) from 1978 to 2010. Applying a random effects ordered probit model, we find that a higher regional house price gap significantly increases (decreases) the probability that this district's representative in the FOMC casts interest rate votes in favor of tighter (easier) monetary policy. In addition, our results suggest that Bank presidents react more sensitively to regional house price developments than Board members do. (JEL E31, E58, R31)     

How did the financial crisis affect the transnationality of the global financial elite? One step forward and one step back

Over the last few decades, transnational elite formation progressed hand in hand with a deterioration in national business elites. Most studies regard this process as progressive and linear. However, we argue that transnational elite formation is subject to a variety of opposing forces, and the assumed progression is not a given fact. As an intriguing case, we analyse the financial business elite with a focus on the financial crisis of 2008. This international event had substantial ramifications, including a possible external shock to transnational elite formation. To study the consequences of the crisis, we collected the board composition data of the 48 largest transnational financial companies for the period 2006–11. Changes in board composition show opposing effects. For example, transnationality increased during the crisis, but reversals appeared when national governments intervened.     

Change-Point Tests for the Error Distribution in Non-parametric Regression

Abstract.  Several testing procedures are proposed that can detect change-points in the error distribution of non-parametric regression models. Different settings are considered where the change-point either occurs at some time point or at some value of the covariate. Fixed as well as random covariates are considered. Weak convergence of the suggested difference of sequential empirical processes based on non-parametrically estimated residuals to a Gaussian process is proved under the null hypothesis of no change-point. In the case of testing for a change in the error distribution that occurs with increasing time in a model with random covariates the test statistic is asymptotically distribution free and the asymptotic quantiles can be used for the test. This special test statistic can also detect a change in the regression function. In all other cases the asymptotic distribution depends on unknown features of the data-generating process and a bootstrap procedure is proposed in these cases. The small sample performances of the proposed tests are investigated by means of a simulation study and the tests are applied to a data example.     

Social embeddedness in a harmonized Europe: the social networks of European migrants with a native partner in Belgium and the Netherlands

Although intra‐European migration is often considered relatively easy to realize given European citizens' right to freedom of movement, settlement in another European country can still be experienced as socially disruptive. Insights in the insertion processes of European migrants, nevertheless, remain rather scarce. In this study, we analyse the social networks of European nationals with a native partner in Belgium and the Netherlands. The analysis is based on survey data from the EUMARR project (n = 576). First, we study the size and composition of European migrants' local family and friendship networks, and the frequency of contact with these networks. Second, we connect intra‐EU movers' insertion routes to investments in transnational networks in their home country. The results reveal how size, composition and contact with the local and transnational network change over time. Children help to maintain contact with both the local and transnational family network and form a bridge for parents to meet own friends in the host country. Moreover, having own friends and own family around matters for contact frequency with the local networks.     

ROC Curves in Non‐Parametric Location‐Scale Regression Models

Abstract. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve is a tool of extensive use to analyse the discrimination capability of a diagnostic variable in medical studies. In certain situations, the presence of a covariate related to the diagnostic variable can increase the discriminating power of the ROC curve. In this article, we model the effect of the covariate over the diagnostic variable by means of non‐parametric location‐scale regression models. We propose a new non‐parametric estimator of the conditional ROC curve and study its asymptotic properties. We also present some simulations and an illustration to a data set concerning diagnosis of diabetes.     

RESEARCH NOTE Some evidence against the assumption that approval of family planning is associated with frequency of spouses' discussion of the subject

Much previous work on the relationship between respondent's reported frequency of discussion with spouse about family planning and correctness of reporting spouse's approval of family planning has led to the conclusion that discussion promotes approval. In this paper, data from the 1998 Kenya Demographic and Health Surveys are used to show that a focus on the relationship between frequency of discussion and correctness of reporting partner's disapproval of family planning leads to sceptical conclusions about the effects of discussion in improving knowledge of partner's attitude or in promoting approval.     

Goodness-of-Fit Tests for Multiplicative Models with Dependent Data

Abstract.  Several classical time series models can be written as a regression model between the components of a strictly stationary bivariate process. Some of those models, such as the ARCH models, share the property of proportionality of the regression function and the scale function, which is an interesting feature in econometric and financial models. In this article, we present a procedure to test for this feature in a non-parametric context. The test is based on the difference between two non-parametric estimators of the distribution of the regression error. Asymptotic results are proved and some simulations are shown in the paper in order to illustrate the finite sample properties of the procedure.     

New developments in generative BOM processing systems

Abstract

The principle of generative bill-of-material (BOM) processing systems is that different BOMs belonging to different product variants can be represented by a single, so-called source BOM. The BOM processing systems comprise additional data structures which hold information on the relationships between product characteristics of parent product variants and component product variants, and on the relationships between characteristics of a parent product variant and its BOM data. These relationships allow the automatic generation of the individual BOM of each represented product variant. There are several alternative ways of implementing a generative BOM processing system. The oldest concept known is the variant BOM concept. This concept provides a relatively simple solution to deal with large varieties of final product variants. However the concept has a number of drawbacks such as the representation of product variety at lower levels in the product structure and data redundancy which hampers data maintenance. In this paper an improved concept for generative BOM processing systems is introduced and described: the generic BOM concept. The generic BOM concept does not focus on representing final product variants only, but takes a broader view towards representing any range of product variants at any level in the product structure. This starting point solves a number of draw-backs implied by the variant BOM concept but it also requires new definitions of BOM relationships and the introduction of new data structures to support the generation of individual BOMs.     

America's Most Important Problem--A Trend Analysis, 1946-1976

Using an extremely rich data series, this paper traces trendsin America's most important problem from 1946 to 1976. Bothlong-term and short-term changes in public concern are charted.Additionally, the problem profiles of major sociodemographicgroups are analyzed. Changes in the problem concerns of thesegroups are also followed across time.