REGIONAL HOUSE PRICE DYNAMICS AND VOTING BEHAVIOR IN THE FOMC

This paper examines the impact of house price gaps in Federal Reserve districts on the voting behavior in the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) from 1978 to 2010. Applying a random effects ordered probit model, we find that a higher regional house price gap significantly increases (decreases) the probability that this district's representative in the FOMC casts interest rate votes in favor of tighter (easier) monetary policy. In addition, our results suggest that Bank presidents react more sensitively to regional house price developments than Board members do. (JEL E31, E58, R31)     

STUDYING THE EFFECTS OF HOUSEHOLD AND FIRM CREDIT ON THE TRADE BALANCE: THE COMPOSITION OF FUNDS MATTERS

In this article, we focus on distinguishing between household and corporate sector credit and investigate the effects these two types of credit have on the trade balance. A higher level of private credit indicates better developed financial markets and easier credit access for businesses and households. Yet, both types of borrowers vary in terms of the use of credit. Our model and empirical analysis suggest that the composition of credit does matter for the trade balance: lending to consumers has a negative effect on net exports, while firm loans contribute to a rise in net exports . ( JEL F32, F41, G21)     

INCIDENCE AND CONSEQUENCES OF RISK‐TAKING BEHAVIOR IN TOURNAMENTS—EVIDENCE FROM THE NBA

We empirically explore the relevance and efficiency of risk‐taking behavior in tournaments. We use data from the National Basketball Association (NBA) and measure risk‐taking by the fraction of three‐point shots in basketball games. We examine how point differences between teams during games affect their subsequent risk‐taking behavior. It is found that teams that are trailing are more likely to increase their use of three‐point shots. We additionally analyze the consequences of this change in behavior. Enhanced risk‐taking is inefficient in the vast majority of cases and is only beneficial if a team is trailing by a rather large margin. We discuss possible explanations for these decision errors. (JEL M5, D81, J30)     

Comparison of Separable Components in Different Samples

Abstract.  Imagine we have two different samples and are interested in doing semi- or non-parametric regression analysis in each of them, possibly on the same model. In this paper, we consider the problem of testing whether a specific covariate has different impacts on the regression curve in these two samples. We compare the regression curves of different samples but are interested in specific differences instead of testing for equality of the whole regression function. Our procedure does allow for random designs, different sample sizes, different variance functions, different sets of regressors with different impact functions, etc. As we use the marginal integration approach, this method can be applied to any strong, weak or latent separable model as well as to additive interaction models to compare the lower dimensional separable components between the different samples. Thus, in the case of having separable models, our procedure includes the possibility of comparing the whole regression curves, thereby avoiding the curse of dimensionality. It is shown that bootstrap fails in theory and practice. Therefore, we propose a subsampling procedure with automatic choice of subsample size. We present a complete asymptotic theory and an extensive simulation study.     

Maximum Likelihood Estimation in Gaussian Chain Graph Models under the Alternative Markov Property

Abstract.  The Andersson–Madigan–Perlman (AMP) Markov property is a recently proposed alternative Markov property (AMP) for chain graphs. In the case of continuous variables with a joint multivariate Gaussian distribution, it is the AMP rather than the earlier introduced Lauritzen–Wermuth–Frydenberg Markov property that is coherent with data-generation by natural block-recursive regressions. In this paper, we show that maximum likelihood estimates in Gaussian AMP chain graph models can be obtained by combining generalized least squares and iterative proportional fitting to an iterative algorithm. In an appendix, we give useful convergence results for iterative partial maximization algorithms that apply in particular to the described algorithm.     

DEPOSIT INSURANCE AND EXTERNAL FINANCE

In this article we examine one potential explanation for the cross-country differences in the importance of banks and capital market financing of investment. We provide both an equilibrium model predicting and empirical evidence showing that countries with explicit deposit insurance and a high degree of state-owned bank assets have smaller equity markets, a lower number of publicly traded firms, and a smaller amount of bank credit to the private sector. Finally, our results suggest that the effects of deposit guarantees are more important than the origins of national legal systems. (JEL G21 , G22 , G32 )     

Soviet Communism and Weberian Sociology

Abstract The first section of this article gives a short outline of Weber's view on socialism, communism and the Russian Revolution. It is argued that Soviet communism is neither traditional nor neotraditional, neither charismatic in the sense of the genuine, personal charisma of its leaders, nor rational in the sense of a maximum of formal rationality. It is suggested that another Weberian category, one which until now has received only limited attention - the charisma of reason - overcomes several of the difficulties in which previous analyses have got entangled.     

Understanding the geographical development of social movements: a web‐link analysis of Slow Food

Slow Food (SF) is a global, grassroots movement aimed at enhancing and sustaining local food cultures and traditions worldwide. Since its establishment in the 1980s, Slow Food groups have emerged across the world and embedded in a wide range of different contexts. In this article, we explain how the movement, as a diverse whole, is being shaped by complex dynamics existing between grassroots flexibilities and emerging drives for movement coherence and harmonization. Unlike conventional studies on social movements, our approach helps one to understand transnational social movements as being simultaneously coherent and diverse bodies of collective action. Drawing on work in the fields of relational geography, assemblage theory and webometric research, we develop an analytical strategy that navigates and maps the entire Slow Food movement by exploring its ‘double articulation’ between the material‐connective and ideational‐expressive. Focusing on representations of this connectivity and articulation on the internet, we combine methodologies of computation research (webometrics) with more qualitative forms of (web) discourse analysis to achieve this. Our results point to the significance of particular networks and nodal points that support such double movements, each presenting core logistical channels of the movement's operations as well as points of relay of new ideas and practices. A network‐based analysis of ‘double articulation’ thus shows how the co‐evolution of ideas and material practices cascades into major trends without having to rely on a ‘grand', singular explanation of a movement's development.     

Intra-firm and extra-firm linkages in the knowledge economy: the case of the emerging mega-city region of Munich

With the aim of identifying emerging patterns of spatial development and the driving forces behind the associated process, in this article we draw together two threads of interlinked phenomena. First, we look at how multi-location firms from the knowledge economy develop their intra-firm networks internationally. Second, we establish the partners with which these firms have working relationships along individual chains of value, and in which these extra-firm linkages are located. We start from a conceptual background that combines the location behaviour of firms with a value chain approach. We analyse the two main pillars of the knowledge economy – advanced producer services (APS) and high-tech firms. A case study carried out in the greater Munich area provides the empirical basis and draws on quantitative and qualitative research methods. The results provide evidence that the greater Munich area can be regarded simultaneously as a hierarchically organized polycentric mega-city region and high-grade localized system of value chains.