Probabilistic population projections for countries with generalized HIV/AIDS epidemics

In 2015, the United Nations (UN) issued probabilistic population projections for all countries up to 2100, by simulating future levels of total fertility and life expectancy and combining the results using a standard cohort component projection method. For the 40 countries with generalized HIV/AIDS epidemics, the mortality projections used the Spectrum/Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) model, a complex, multistate model designed for short-term projections of policy-relevant quantities for the epidemic. We propose a simpler approach that is more compatible with existing UN projection methods for other countries. Changes in life expectancy are projected probabilistically using a simple time series regression and then converted to age- and sex-specific mortality rates using model life tables designed for countries with HIV/AIDS epidemics. These are then input to the cohort component method, as for other countries. The method performed well in an out-of-sample cross-validation experiment. It gives similar short-run projections to Spectrum/EPP, while being simpler and avoiding multistate modelling.     

Does a universal non-contributory social pension make sense for rural China?

China’s pension reform during the past three decades has allowed a majority of China’s population to be covered by a pension scheme. Of particular note has been the New Rural Pension Scheme (NRPS), a voluntary programme introduced starting in 2009. One goal of our analysis is to assess that pension scheme, using a variety of sources of information including data drawn from recent (2013 and 2015) nationwide China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Surveys (CHARLS). Our analysis involves an exploration of differences between the generosity and structure of the NRPS and other pension schemes currently in place. We also explore the feasibility of reforming the current “quasi-social pension” component of the NRPS by substituting a universal non-contributory social pension pillar. In connection with our assessment of the NRPS, we note the unusually low benefit levels for rural China.     

Can Children Recognize Bodily Expressions of Emotion?

Journal of Nonverbal Behavior - Past research has demonstrated that children understand distinct emotion concepts and can accurately recognize facial expressions of distinct emotions by a young...     

Community Economic Development Strategies in Rural Washington: Toward a Synthesis of Natural and Social Capital*

Abstract Routes to economic development attract considerable attention in community and rural sociology. Social scientists draw increasingly on studies of social capital and environmental surroundings as they examine the factors that facilitate and inhibit economic development. However, few empirical analyses exist that analyze the impact of the combination of social infrastructure and natural capital on different forms of economic development such as on industrial recruitment and self‐development. Using data collected from six communities in Washington State, the interaction of a community's social infrastructure and natural capital on industrial recruitment and self‐development efforts is examined. Results suggest that while natural capital positively impacts a community's successful recruitment of outside industries, it is not significant for a community's level of self‐development. However, a community's social infrastructure, measured by the existence of active civic organizations, local businesses that support local community projects, community‐wide fund‐raising capacity, and extra‐local linkages to nearby communities, state, and national agencies, positively affects both industrial recruitment and self‐development. These findings illustrate the need for communities and local activists to carefully weigh their advantages and potential shortcomings when deciding on an economic development strategy.     

Spatial Data Usage,Spatial Thinking and Spatial Knowledge Generation: The Case of Planning Practitioners in Arequipa,Peru

Spatial thinking and spatial knowledge generation in decision-making are still not mature fields of study in planning research, despite these being crucial elements in addressing the issues of the twenty-first-century city. This article contributes to their understanding by exploring their interrelationships with spatial data usage. Through storylines, it analyzes the arguments that planning practitioners offer in support of infrastructure-led decisions in Arequipa (Peru), before and after spatial data usage. The article concludes that spatial data usage improve spatial thinking to different extents, yet suggests aligning spatial data generation and the inclusion of GIS-based spatial analyses with the spatial knowledge needed by routine planning practice.     

Race and opportunity in a public alternative school

This qualitative case-study explores questions about the stratifying role of public alternative schools created for ‘at-risk’ youth by analyzing the school experience of students who attend a single continuation high school and the process of student enrollment and referral to that school. Drawing on the concept of whiteness as property, this article demonstrates how the continuation high school maintained and protected the property functions of whiteness through acts of symbolic violence and the systematic removal of non-white students from the school district’s mainstream high school. Instead, students were placed in a substandard alternative school lacking in material and intellectual resources. Furthermore, teachers, counselors, and administrative staff at the mainstream and continuation high schools alike drew upon the racial ideology of merit to rationalize the overrepresentation of non-white youths at the study school and to ‘deracialize’ the student referral process.     

Interactions between task repetition and psychosocial factors

Psychosocial factors, individual factors, workplace requirements, and workplace organizational factors have all been reported as being associated with the risk of musculoskeletal disorders [11]. Huang, Feuerstein, and Sauter [5] described the various concepts and models proposed to link occupational stress and work-related upper extremity disorders, as well as the difficulty in verifying the suggested linkages. Huang et al. [5] suggested that decomposing a complex model would be an appropriate method to begin the investigations of the proposed models. Task repetition is a workplace requirement that is considered a potential risk factor for cumulative trauma and its relationship to psychosocial factors was investigated. The study found only weak to no statistically significant relationship between task repetition and reported psychosocial factors of job stress in workers in Taiwan.     

Approach and Positive Affect in Toddlerhood Predict Early Childhood Behavior Problems

The aim of the study was to examine the moderating role of positive affect on the relation between approach behaviors and adjustment outcomes. One hundred eleven toddlers participated in a laboratory assessment of approach and positive affect at 24 months. Behavior problems were reported by a parent in the fall of the child's kindergarten year. Results supported our hypotheses that children who displayed high approach and high positive affect in both non‐threat and low‐threat contexts were rated as higher in externalizing behavior problems. On the other hand, for children showing low positive affect, increases in approach in a moderate‐threat context lowered the risk of developing internalizing behavior problems. Implications for these findings are discussed, including methodological considerations of differences among eliciting contexts and advantages of separating positive affect and approach.     

Observational Stance as a Predictor of Subjective and Genital Sexual Arousal in Men and Women

Observational stance refers to the perspective a person takes while viewing a sexual stimulus, either as a passive observer (observer stance) or an active participant (participant stance). The objective of the current study was to examine the relationship between observational stance and sexual arousal (subjective and genital) across a range of sexual stimuli that do or do not correspond with a participant's sexual attraction (preferred or nonpreferred stimuli, respectively). Regression analyses revealed that, for men (n = 44), participant stance significantly predicted subjective and genital arousal. Women's (n = 47) observer and participant stance predicted subjective arousal but not genital arousal. Analysis of variance showed that participant stance was greatest under preferred sexual stimuli conditions for all groups of participants, while observer stance scores revealed a less consistent pattern of response. This was particularly true for opposite-sex-attracted women, whose ratings of observer stance were lowest for preferred stimuli. Observational stance does not appear to account for gender differences in specificity of sexual arousal; for men, however, participant stance uniquely predicted genital response after controlling for sexual attractions. Similarities in the relationships between men's and women's observational stance and sexual responses challenge previous claims of gender differences in how men and women view erotica.     

Alcohol use and strenuous physical activity in college students: A longitudinal test of 2 explanatory models of health behavior

Objective: To help clarify the effect of gender on the bidirectional relationship between alcohol use and strenuous physical activity in college students. Participants: Five hundred twenty-four (52% female) college students recruited in August 2008 and 2009 and followed up in April 2009 and April 2011, respectively. Methods: Participants reported their alcohol use and strenuous physical activity on 2 occasions (baseline and follow-up) spaced approximately 1 or 2 years apart. Results: For females, alcohol use quantity at baseline was associated with increased strenuous physical activity at 1- and 2-year follow-ups, and alcohol use frequency at baseline was associated with decreased strenuous physical activity at 2-year follow-up. For males, alcohol use frequency at baseline predicted decreased strenuous physical activity at 1-year follow-up. Conclusions: Gender differences may be explained from an eating disorders perspective such that women use physical activity as a compensatory strategy to combat potential weight gain from calories consumed during alcohol use.