After the Paris Declaration: Taking on the Issue of Power

The new approach to assisting developing countries inspired by the Paris Declaration emphasises greater recipient control over the funds provided, thus confining donors’influence to upstream points in the policy process, where political aspects of development co‐operation become more important. Understanding better the role that power plays in the aid relationship will be critical to the implementation of the Declaration. This article shows how the political science literature can inform this set of issues. It argues that an understanding of aspects of power illuminates the challenges involved in transforming relations between donors and recipient governments as well as between governments and civil society organisations.     

Optimal allocation for linear combinations of linear predictors in generalized linear models

The problem of the allocation of experimental units to experimental groups is studied within the context of generalized linear models. Optimal designs for the estimation of linear combinations of linear predictors are characterized, using concepts from the theory of optimal design. If there is only one linear combination of interest, then the D-optimal allocation is equivalent to the well-known Neyman allocation of subsamples in stratified sampling. However, if the number of linear combinations equals the number of design points, or experimental groups, then the equal replication of all design points is D-optimal. For cases in between, there are no easily accessible general solutions to the problem, although some particular cases are solved, including: i estimation of the n- 1 possible comparisons with a control group in an n-point, one-factor design; and ii estimation of 2 one or two of the four natural parameters of a 2 factorial design. The A-optimal allocations are determined in general.     

基于顾客信任的网络商店显示价格对比性信息的策略研究

是否应显示竞争对手的价格对比性信息一直是困扰网络商店的一个问题。考虑到网络商店显示竞争对手的价格信息对顾客信任以及顾客信任对消费者效用的影响,本文以商店声誉、商品价格和顾客信任为变量建立消费者效用模型,运用博弈方法进行模型分析,探讨网络商店是否应显示竞争对手价格对比性信息的策略选择问题。研究发现,不同经营导向和不同声誉的网络商店应选择不同的显示策略,即:以市场份额为导向时,同质商店可以维持现有显示策略;而异质商店可根据现有显示情况做出策略调整;以商店收益为导向时,同质商店都倾向于显示的策略,异质商店倾向于在各自需求优势下定相对较高价格的策略;以消费者剩余为导向时,同质商店可维持现有显示策略,异质商店中具有声誉优势的一方和不具有声誉优势的一方分别倾向于双方都显示和只有一方显示的策略。     

Assessing the bias due to non-coverage of residential movers in the German Microcensus Panel: an evaluation using data from the Socio-Economic Panel

The German Microcensus (MC) is a large scale rotating panel survey over three years. The MC is attractive for longitudinal analysis over the entire participation duration because of the mandatory participation and the very high case numbers (about 200000 respondents). However, as a consequence of the area sampling that is used for the MC, residential mobility is not covered and consequently statistical information at the new residence is lacking in the MC sample. This raises the question whether longitudinal analyses, like transitions between labour market states, are biased and how different methods perform that promise to reduce such a bias. Similar problems occur also for other national Labour Force Surveys (LFS) which are rotating panels and do not cover residential mobility, see Clarke and Tate (2002). Based on data of the German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP), which covers residential mobility, we analysed the effects of missing data of residential movers by the estimation of labour force flows. By comparing the results from the complete SOEP sample and the results from the SOEP, restricted to the non-movers, we concluded that the non-coverage of the residential movers can not be ignored in Rubin’s sense. With respect to correction methods we analysed weighting by inverse mobility scores and log-linear models for partially observed contingency tables. Our results indicate that weighting by inverse mobility scores reduces the bias to about 60% whereas the official longitudinal weights obtained by calibration result in a bias reduction of about 80%. The estimation of log-linear models for non-ignorable non-response leads to very unstable results.     

Androgen status in non-diabetic elderly men with heart failure

Purpose: We aimed at evaluating androgen status (serum testosterone [TT] and estimated free testosterone [eFT]) and its determinants in non-diabetic elderly men with heart failure (HF). Additionally, we investigated its associations with body composition and long-term survival.

Methods: Seventy three non-diabetic men with HF and 20 healthy men aged over 55?years were studied. Echocardiography, 6-min walk test, grip strength, body composition measurement by DEXA method were performed. TT, sex hormone binding globulin, NT-proBNP, and adipokines (adiponectin and leptin) were measured. All-cause mortality was evaluated at six years of follow-up.

Results: Androgen status (TT, eFT) was similar in elderly men with HF compared to healthy controls (4.79?±?1.65 vs. 4.45?±?1.68?ng/ml and 0.409?±?0.277 vs. 0.350?±?0.204?nmol/l, respectively). In HF patients, TT was positively associated with NT-proBNP (r=?0.371, p?=?0.001) and adiponectin levels (r?=?0.349, p?=?0.002), while inverse association was noted with fat mass (r?=??0.413, p?<?0.001). TT and eFT were independently determined by age, total fat mass and adiponectin levels in elderly men with HF (p?<?0.05 for all). Androgen status was not predictor for all-cause mortality at six years of follow-up.

Conclusions: In non-diabetic men with HF, androgen status is not altered and is not predictive of long-term outcome.     

Adolescents' attitudes toward schizophrenia, depression and PTSD

The objective of this study was to compare adolescents' attitudes toward schizophrenia, depression, and posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD). Stigmatizing attitudes toward these three mental disorders were evaluated in 325 senior students from medical, commercial, and grammar high schools in Croatia using a 45-item questionnaire. Results indicated that stigmatizing attitudes toward PTSD were at the same level as attitudes toward depression and were less stigmatizing than were attitudes toward schizophrenia. Negative attitudes were the lowest among medical students. Gender differences existed only for attitudes toward depression. Stigmatizing attitudes toward PTSD were not as high as expected. All of the students believed mental disorders are different from other disorders. Specific knowledge of psychiatry has been shown to reduce stigma. The nonaddictive nature of psychotropic medications should receive greater emphasis when teaching psychiatry.     

Mortality From the Influenza Pandemic of 1918–1919: The Case of India

Estimates of worldwide mortality from the influenza pandemic of 1918-1919 vary widely, from 15 million to 100 million. In terms of loss of life, India was the focal point of this profound demographic event. In this article, we calculate mortality from the influenza pandemic in India using panel data models and data from the Census of India. The new estimates suggest that for the districts included in the sample, mortality was at most 13.88 million, compared with 17.21 million when calculated using the assumptions of Davis (1951). We conclude that Davis' influential estimate of mortality from influenza in British India is overstated by at least 24%. Future analyses of the effects of the pandemic on demographic change in India and worldwide will need to account for this significant downward revision.     

加强素质教育,提高教学质量

根据多年从事教学工作的实践,探讨提高教学质量的方法。     

Urban flora in the Southeast Europe and its correlation with urbanization

Many studies have refuted the opinion that urban floras are poor in total species number and characterized primarily by neophytes. Also, it has been proved that urban flora differs from its surroundings, and at the same time reflects its richness. Our study focused on urban flora, structure and similarities, and the possible correlation with the urban attributes. Therefore, we selected 11 cities in Southeast Europe, which differ in the development of transportation networks (roads, rails and inland waterways) and population size. Next, we compared two sets of data (structure of urban flora and urban attributes) to define the correlation patterns. Analyzed urban floras were primarily distinguished by a total number of species, number of unique species and neophytes. Belgrade is a city with the highest urbanization level, the most species and the highest number of unique species and neophytes as well. Kosovska Mitrovica, Grocka and Po?arevac stand out by floristic richness. These cities have a high number of species, yet a small proportion of neophytes. Other cities are characterized by similar floristic structure, with a relatively similar proportion of neophytes and approximately similar number of unique species in relation to the total number. It can be concluded that other factors beside the chosen urban attributes have additional effects on floristic structure, except for the factor - the presence of neophytes. This is in accordance with predefining subjects, since urban attributes were chosen based on knowledge about important corridors for invasive species.     

论萨特在中国现当代文学中的影响

“萨特现象”是1942-1946年间世界文学史上的重大事件,我国学术界对萨特的研究和评价工作就是从这一时期开始的。从20世纪40年代到20世纪末,特别是20世纪80年代, 我国部分作家的创作,或多或少受到了萨特的影响;但萨特在我国的评论界却经历了一条漫长的“中国之旅”,旅途虽然坎坷曲折,却终归回到了公正的立场上来。