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排序方式: 共有902条查询结果,搜索用时 252 毫秒
1.
David J. Sharrow Jessica Godwin Yanjun He Samuel J. Clark Adrian E. Raftery 《Population studies》2018,72(1):1-15
In 2015, the United Nations (UN) issued probabilistic population projections for all countries up to 2100, by simulating future levels of total fertility and life expectancy and combining the results using a standard cohort component projection method. For the 40 countries with generalized HIV/AIDS epidemics, the mortality projections used the Spectrum/Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) model, a complex, multistate model designed for short-term projections of policy-relevant quantities for the epidemic. We propose a simpler approach that is more compatible with existing UN projection methods for other countries. Changes in life expectancy are projected probabilistically using a simple time series regression and then converted to age- and sex-specific mortality rates using model life tables designed for countries with HIV/AIDS epidemics. These are then input to the cohort component method, as for other countries. The method performed well in an out-of-sample cross-validation experiment. It gives similar short-run projections to Spectrum/EPP, while being simpler and avoiding multistate modelling. 相似文献
2.
Ce Shen Jessica Johnson Zhenhe Chi John B. Williamson 《International social security review》2020,73(2):3-26
China’s pension reform during the past three decades has allowed a majority of China’s population to be covered by a pension scheme. Of particular note has been the New Rural Pension Scheme (NRPS), a voluntary programme introduced starting in 2009. One goal of our analysis is to assess that pension scheme, using a variety of sources of information including data drawn from recent (2013 and 2015) nationwide China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Surveys (CHARLS). Our analysis involves an exploration of differences between the generosity and structure of the NRPS and other pension schemes currently in place. We also explore the feasibility of reforming the current “quasi-social pension” component of the NRPS by substituting a universal non-contributory social pension pillar. In connection with our assessment of the NRPS, we note the unusually low benefit levels for rural China. 相似文献
3.
Witkower Zachary Tracy Jessica L. Pun Anthea Baron Andrew S. 《Journal of Nonverbal Behavior》2021,45(4):505-518
Journal of Nonverbal Behavior - Past research has demonstrated that children understand distinct emotion concepts and can accurately recognize facial expressions of distinct emotions by a young... 相似文献
4.
Jessica A. Crowe 《Rural sociology》2006,71(4):573-596
Abstract Routes to economic development attract considerable attention in community and rural sociology. Social scientists draw increasingly on studies of social capital and environmental surroundings as they examine the factors that facilitate and inhibit economic development. However, few empirical analyses exist that analyze the impact of the combination of social infrastructure and natural capital on different forms of economic development such as on industrial recruitment and self‐development. Using data collected from six communities in Washington State, the interaction of a community's social infrastructure and natural capital on industrial recruitment and self‐development efforts is examined. Results suggest that while natural capital positively impacts a community's successful recruitment of outside industries, it is not significant for a community's level of self‐development. However, a community's social infrastructure, measured by the existence of active civic organizations, local businesses that support local community projects, community‐wide fund‐raising capacity, and extra‐local linkages to nearby communities, state, and national agencies, positively affects both industrial recruitment and self‐development. These findings illustrate the need for communities and local activists to carefully weigh their advantages and potential shortcomings when deciding on an economic development strategy. 相似文献
5.
Many proposed methods for analyzing clustered ordinal data focus on the regression model and consider the association structure within a cluster as a nuisance. However, the association structure is often of equal interest—for example, temporal association in longitudinal studies and association between responses to similar questions in a survey. We discuss the use, appropriateness, and interpretability of various latent variable and Markov models for the association structure and propose a new structure that exploits the ordinality of the response. The models are illustrated with a study concerning opinions regarding government spending and an analysis of stability and change in teenage marijuana use over time, where we reveal different behavioral patterns for boys and girls through a comprehensive investigation of individual response profiles. 相似文献
6.
Kevin McDonald 《Qualitative sociology》2002,25(2):247-260
The sociological intervention is a research method developed in France by Alain Touraine in 1976 to explore social movement action. Since then it has undergone significant development, both in terms of the type of social experience explored and the broader research program framing it. Despite its importance, the intervention remains little known and virtually untested within English-language sociology. This article examines key dimensions of this research method through discussing several examples, and argues that the intervention has much to offer English-language sociologists concerned with questions of agency and reflexivity, relationship, narrative and experience. 相似文献
7.
The small sample performance of least median of squares, reweighted least squares, least squares, least absolute deviations, and three partially adaptive estimators are compared using Monte Carlo simulations. Two data problems are addressed in the paper: (1) data generated from non-normal error distributions and (2) contaminated data. Breakdown plots are used to investigate the sensitivity of partially adaptive estimators to data contamination relative to RLS. One partially adaptive estimator performs especially well when the errors are skewed, while another partially adaptive estimator and RLS perform particularly well when the errors are extremely leptokur-totic. In comparison with RLS, partially adaptive estimators are only moderately effective in resisting data contamination; however, they outperform least squares and least absolute deviation estimators. 相似文献
8.
Joanne Williams John W. Toumbourou Margaret McDonald Stephanie Jones Tim Moore 《Children & Society》2005,19(2):91-104
This article overviews prevention and early intervention approaches focusing specifically on their relevance to the health of children and young people in Australia. Australian public health has a sound track record although concealed within the aggregate profile are a number of sub-populations with poorer health indicators. Recognition of this has increased efforts to improve the health of children and young people especially in exploring the impact of social environments within the communities where children are raised. This paper examines emerging research in this area drawing out key lessons and learning from Australian experience in the field of early intervention and prevention in community settings. 相似文献
9.
Jessica Pineda-Zumaran 《Planning Practice and Research》2016,31(3):270-291
Spatial thinking and spatial knowledge generation in decision-making are still not mature fields of study in planning research, despite these being crucial elements in addressing the issues of the twenty-first-century city. This article contributes to their understanding by exploring their interrelationships with spatial data usage. Through storylines, it analyzes the arguments that planning practitioners offer in support of infrastructure-led decisions in Arequipa (Peru), before and after spatial data usage. The article concludes that spatial data usage improve spatial thinking to different extents, yet suggests aligning spatial data generation and the inclusion of GIS-based spatial analyses with the spatial knowledge needed by routine planning practice. 相似文献
10.
Jessica L. Dunning-Lozano 《Race Ethnicity and Education》2016,19(2):433-460
This qualitative case-study explores questions about the stratifying role of public alternative schools created for ‘at-risk’ youth by analyzing the school experience of students who attend a single continuation high school and the process of student enrollment and referral to that school. Drawing on the concept of whiteness as property, this article demonstrates how the continuation high school maintained and protected the property functions of whiteness through acts of symbolic violence and the systematic removal of non-white students from the school district’s mainstream high school. Instead, students were placed in a substandard alternative school lacking in material and intellectual resources. Furthermore, teachers, counselors, and administrative staff at the mainstream and continuation high schools alike drew upon the racial ideology of merit to rationalize the overrepresentation of non-white youths at the study school and to ‘deracialize’ the student referral process. 相似文献