Driving Under the Influence of Risky Peers: An Experimental Study of Adolescent Risk Taking

Both passive and active social influences may affect adolescents' dangerous driving. In this study, we used an experimental paradigm to delineate these two influences with actual peers. Adolescents completed a simulated driving task, and we measured risk preferences of each member of the peer group. We used hierarchical linear modeling to partition variance in risky decisions. Adolescents experienced many more crashes when they had “passengers” present who reported a strong preference for risk taking and who actively provided decision‐making guidance. Although youth in the passive peer condition were also influenced by the riskiness of their peers, this relation was less strong relative to the active condition. We discuss the need for interventions focussing on active and passive peer influence.     

雪天等放晴 肌肤除屑忙

窗外下着雪，干燥连天，我们的皮肤也在闹雪灾脸上脱皮刺痒、脱衣服的时候身上也皮屑纷飞……一般说到除屑我们只想到头皮屑，实际上需要除屑的，也包括秋冬天气的皮肤。是时候挥动我们的除雪铲，帮助大雪连天的肌肤放晴了!     

Risk of Error and the Kappa Coefficient of a Binary Diagnostic Test in the Presence of Partial Verification

The accuracy of a binary diagnostic test is usually measured in terms of its sensitivity and its specificity, or through positive and negative predictive values. Another way to describe the validity of a binary diagnostic test is the risk of error and the kappa coefficient of the risk of error. The risk of error is the average loss that is caused when incorrectly classifying a non-diseased or a diseased patient, and the kappa coefficient of the risk of error is a measure of the agreement between the diagnostic test and the gold standard. In the presence of partial verification of the disease, the disease status of some patients is unknown, and therefore the evaluation of a diagnostic test cannot be carried out through the traditional method. In this paper, we have deduced the maximum likelihood estimators and variances of the risk of error and of the kappa coefficient of the risk of error in the presence of partial verification of the disease. Simulation experiments have been carried out to study the effect of the verification probabilities on the coverage of the confidence interval of the kappa coefficient.     

Does Formal Education for Older Workers Increase Earnings? — Evidence Based on Rich Data and Long‐term Follow‐up

Governments in Europe, Canada and the USA have expressed an ambition to stimulate education of older. In this paper, we analyse if there are effects on annual earnings of formal education for participants aged 42–55 at the time of enrolment in 1994–95. The analysis explores longitudinal population register data stretching from 1982 to 2007. The method used is difference‐in‐differences propensity score matching based on a rich set of covariates, including indicators of health and labor market marginalization. Our findings underline the importance of long follow up periods and imply positive effects for women, especially so for women with children, and no significant average earnings effects for men. These results differ from earlier studies but are stable to several alternative assumptions regarding unobservable characteristics. Data further indicate that the gender gap in our estimates may stem from differences in underlying reasons for enrolment.     

燃情夏日，引爆窈窕曲线俏佳人——锁定小V脸你所不知的六大瘦脸主义

身上轻松薄透的夏装，不够完美的身材便暴露无遗，抓紧着装轻便的机会塑造好的身材吧！     

Mapuche education and situated learning in a community school in Chile

The article analyses the Mapuche language and culture teaching practices of a rural school in the Chilean Araucanía region run by Mapuche teachers, aimed at reinforcing the language, culture and identity of children. Based on a comparative study of two school ethnographies, the article shows and discusses the ways children learn to be Mapuche by participating of social and communitarian practices reproduced in school. While teaching of traditional core subjects is conducted in standard ways, Mapuche language and culture are taught through the recreation of modes of living, producing and reproducing indigenous traditional knowledge that normally occur in family and community. The maintenance of this ‘bicultural pedagogy’ is grounded on an epistemological claim on the indivisibility of contents from its forms of transmission.     

Deprivation,Social Exclusion and Subjective Well-Being

This paper aims at investigating empirically the relationship between self-declared satisfaction with life and an individual’s well-being as measured by the indices of deprivation and social exclusion proposed in the income distribution literature. Results on European countries show that life satisfaction decreases with an increase in deprivation and exclusion after controlling for individual’s income, relative income and other influential factors in a multivariate setting.     

锁定小V脸所不知的六大瘦脸主义

No 1 我想要拔牙瘦脸! Q:20岁时终于长了智齿,最近很多朋友都问我拔掉两边的智齿是不是可以 瘦脸,因为据说很多明星都是通过拔牙来缩小脸型的.     

Projected polynomial autoregression for prediction of stationary time series

Polynomial autoregressions are usually considered to be unrealistic models for time series. However, this paper shows that they can successfully be used when the purpose of the time series study is to provide forecasts. A projection scheme inspired from projection pursuit regression and feedforward artificial neural networks is used in order to avoid an explosion of the number of parameters when considering a large number of lags. The estimation of the parameters of the projected polynomial autoregressions is a non-linear least-squares problem. A consistency result is proved. A simulation study shows that the naive use of the common final prediction error criterion is inappropriate to identify the best projected polynomial autoregression. An explanation of this phenomenon is given and a correction to the criterion is proposed. An important feature of the polynomial predictors introduced in this paper is their simple implementation, which allows for automatic use. This is illustrated with real data for the three-month US Treasury Bill.