Probabilistic population projections for countries with generalized HIV/AIDS epidemics

In 2015, the United Nations (UN) issued probabilistic population projections for all countries up to 2100, by simulating future levels of total fertility and life expectancy and combining the results using a standard cohort component projection method. For the 40 countries with generalized HIV/AIDS epidemics, the mortality projections used the Spectrum/Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) model, a complex, multistate model designed for short-term projections of policy-relevant quantities for the epidemic. We propose a simpler approach that is more compatible with existing UN projection methods for other countries. Changes in life expectancy are projected probabilistically using a simple time series regression and then converted to age- and sex-specific mortality rates using model life tables designed for countries with HIV/AIDS epidemics. These are then input to the cohort component method, as for other countries. The method performed well in an out-of-sample cross-validation experiment. It gives similar short-run projections to Spectrum/EPP, while being simpler and avoiding multistate modelling.     

What are you thinking? Acculturation as an activating event for negative evaluative beliefs among Latinos/as

Negative evaluative beliefs and other cognitive structures have been tied to psychological distress across various populations but have not been sufficiently incorporated into acculturation models. The current study examines the relationships between acculturation and various activating events and mediating sources of support related to negative evaluative beliefs among people of Mexican descent (N = 319). Overall, model variables explained 26% of the variance in negative evaluative beliefs. Acculturation, marital commitment, and social capital associated with friends were negatively related to negative evaluative beliefs. Conversely, single relationship status, marital reward value, psychosocial stressors, and bridging social capital were positively related, and likely serve as activating events for negative evaluative beliefs. Identifying mechanisms related to psychological distress as well as supportive structures may help in constructing interventions that will address the specific needs of different groups. Future research should continue to explore appraisal and associated beliefs in acculturation models to understand why acculturative experiences may become stressful.     

Journey towards independent living: a grounded theory investigation of leaving the care of Girls & Boys Town,South Africa

The journey out of care and towards independent living is a challenge for many care-leavers. There has been little research into the social processes involved in this care-leaving journey. This paper presents the results of a grounded theory investigation into the care-leaving journeys of nine young men who had, several years previously, been in the care of Girls & Boys Town in South Africa. Working from a resilience perspective, with an ecological emphasis, four central social processes emerged that together explain the care-leaving experiences of the participants. These processes are striving for authentic belonging; networking people for goal attainment; contextualised responsiveness and building hopeful and tenacious self-confidence. These four processes are located within contextual boundaries and at the social environmental interface. The paper presents these processes in detail, drawing on selected narratives of the participants and integrated with additional theory. It is hoped that this paper may contribute to theory building concerning care-leaving processes and enhance youth care practices for youth in care and leaving care.     

Lives in limbo: Temporary Protected Status and immigrant identities

The United States formulates much of its immigration and refugee policy to match economic and political circumstances. We interpret these policy shifts as a set of graduated positions on immigration and refugee flows that attempts to discipline the lives of newcomers and, in so doing, shapes immigrant identities. In this article, we analyse the interplay between the US government and Salvadoran asylum applicants negotiating procedures that grant only temporary relief from deportation via the policy of Temporary Protected Status (TPS). We find that each policy shift results in the strategic renegotiation of asylum applicants’ identities so as to achieve the best opportunity for a successful outcome. Based on Foucault’s ideas of governmentality and Ong’s concept of flexible citizenship, we argue that what appears more superficially as a patchwork strategy of immigration laws and asylum practices may be theorized more deeply as a set of flexible responses by the state that turn on identity construction at different scales, and that aim to mediate transnational relations.     

Corporate Giving in Australia: An Analysis of Motives and Barriers

This study comprises data analysis of data collected by McNair Ingenuity Research as part of the 2005 Giving Australia study, which estimated the total value of corporate giving for the year 2003‐04 at $3.3 billion. This was contributed by 67% of all Australian businesses. Business giving was found to comprise 68% monetary donations, 16% goods and 16% services. This article concentrates on the monetary donations of businesses, reporting on the motives and barriers businesses named for making donations. More than 80% of businesses are motivated to give, at least in part, by altruism, with larger businesses (by number of employees and turnover) more likely to claim benefits in terms of enhancements to employee morale, the organisation's image, supplier/customer relationships and the general level of publicity they were able to attract. The most significant barrier to giving named by both businesses who made a donation and those who did not was that business resources were committed elsewhere. Looking at how additional giving might be stimulated among those already giving to the sector revealed that the most generous businesses also cited more barriers to giving suggesting that they give greater consideration to their giving and the drawbacks thereof.     

Book Review: People Power? The Role of the Voluntary and Community Sector in the Northern Ireland Conflict,by Feargal Cochrane and Seamus Dunn. Cork University Press,Cork, 2002

VOLUNTAS: International Journal of Voluntary and Nonprofit Organizations -     

The Role of Family Income in the Intergenerational Association of AFDC Receipt

Daughters from low‐income families who did not receive Aid to Families with Dependent Children (AFDC) are compared to daughters from low‐income families who did receive assistance to better account for family income in the intergenerational association of AFDC. The research models the timing of a daughter's first birth and, for those who become mothers, the number of years a daughter receives any AFDC. Women whose families received AFDC during their childhood are more likely to receive AFDC as adults relative to those women whose families did not receive AFDC. Controlling for family income in a more careful and comprehensive way than past research explains part but not all of the effects of childhood AFDC receipt. Among daughters from chronically poor families, however, parental AFDC use is not associated with additional years of AFDC participation. Although the present research cannot confirm or deny a causal role for parental welfare use, the intergenerational transmission of financial resources does explain part of the intergenerational association of welfare use.     

The birds and the bees: interactive graphics and problem solving in the teaching of statistics

Software which allows interactive exploration of graphical displays is widely available. In addition there now exist sophisticated authoring tools which allow more general textual and graphical material to be presented in computer-based form. The role of an authoring tool in providing a graphical interface to a strategy for solving simple statistical problems in the context of teaching is discussed. This interface allows a variety of resources to be integrated. Specific examples, including the use of dynamic graphical displays in exploring data and in communicating the meaning of a model, are proposed. These ideas are illustrated by a problem involving the identification of the sex of a herring gull.     

The Role of Shocks in Employee Turnover*

This paper reports the findings from a recent study of nurse leavers at eight large hospitals in the National Health Service (NHS) of England and Wales. The study develops and extends an influential theory of employee turnover by describing how for some leavers a single, jarring event or shock triggers the decision to quit. By elaborating on the nature of shocks for this sample of 352 nurse leavers, the paper allows for improved understanding of nursing turnover and thus offers an example of relevant management research. The analysis of shock illustrates how conventional research methodologies can lead to a distorted picture of turnover. This has wider implications, both for any organization wishing to manage turnover effectively and for future research. The paper adds to the limited body of empirical analysis on actual leavers, thereby contributing to an ongoing methodological debate concerning the use of proxy variables. By highlighting flaws in the dominant methodology used to study turnover, the paper offers an example of management research that is also rigorous, and thus ‘pragmatic’.