破"五唯"背景下的高校人才评价机制研究

长期以来,高校人才评价工作受到"五唯"顽疾的严重影响.在破"五唯"背景下,高校人才评价工作面临必须构建新的人才评价机制的任务和要求,通过对破"五唯"的影响分析,以人才分类、评价标准、评价形式和评价结果运用等方面为重点就建立新的人才评价机制进行了研究.昆明理工大学积极响应国家破"五唯"要求,对人才评价机制建设进行了有益的探索,初步建立了人才分类比较科学、评价标准公平合理、评价过程可控、评价结果可运用的人才评价机制.     

基于TOPSIS熵权法的城市韧性评价及韧性建设路径研究——以安徽省为例

城市需要足够的韧性以应对复杂多变的外部环境.高质量发展背景下,统筹规划城市韧性建设对城市可持续健康发展具有重要意义.采用TOPSIS熵权法模型测度2011-2018年期间安徽省各地级市韧性评价值,构建韧性城市评价指标体系,分析安徽各城市韧性演化情况.安徽16个地级市的平均韧性水平随时间呈上升趋势,暂不存在区域间城市韧性发展不平衡问题.结合韧性城市建设的总体思路和要求,安徽各城市应不断优化城市的空间结构,增强城市在经济、社会和基础设施等领域的韧性水平.     

Vocational Status,Hukou and Housing Migrants in the New Century: Evidence from a Multi-city Study of Housing Inequality

In the 1960s and 1970s, the countries of Central and Eastern Europe and the Soviet Union experienced an unanticipated stagnation in the process of mortality reduction that was accelerating in the west. This was followed by even starker fluctuations and overall declines in life expectancy during the 1980s and 1990s. We identify statistically the extent to which, since the 1990s, the countries of the post-communist region have converged as a group towards other regional or cross-regional geopolitical blocks, or whether there are now multiple steady-states (‘convergence clubs’) emerging among these countries. We apply a complex convergence club methodology, including a recursive analysis, to data on 30 OECD countries (including 11 post-communist countries) drawn from the Human Mortality Database and spanning the period 1959–2010. We find that, rather than converging uniformly on western life expectancy levels, the post-communist countries have diverged into multiple clubs, with the lowest seemingly stuck in low-level equilibria, while the best performers (e.g. Czech Republic) show signs of catching-up with the leading OECD countries. As the post-communist period has progressed, the group of transition countries themselves has become more heterogeneous and it is noticeable that distinctive gender and age patterns have emerged. We are the first to employ an empirical convergence club methodology to help understand the complex long-run patterns of life expectancy within the post-communist region, one of very few papers to situate such an analysis in the context of the OECD countries, and one of relatively few to interpret the dynamics over the long-term.     

Multiple event times in the presence of informative censoring: modeling and analysis by copulas

Motivated by a breast cancer research program, this paper is concerned with the joint survivor function of multiple event times when their observations are subject to informative censoring caused by a terminating event. We formulate the correlation of the multiple event times together with the time to the terminating event by an Archimedean copula to account for the informative censoring. Adapting the widely used two-stage procedure under a copula model, we propose an easy-to-implement pseudo-likelihood based procedure for estimating the model parameters. The approach yields a new estimator for the marginal distribution of a single event time with semicompeting-risks data. We conduct both asymptotics and simulation studies to examine the proposed approach in consistency, efficiency, and robustness. Data from the breast cancer program are employed to illustrate this research.

     

也谈历史行政地理分析法在方言分区中的应用——以苏沪嘉地区为例

利用《汉语方言地图集》的材料,对苏沪嘉地区方言的语音、词汇、语法进行综合比较.在此基础上,运用历史行政地理分析法,对苏沪嘉方言的分区方案进行讨论,指出维持原来划分的苏沪嘉小片是最佳方案.     

新常态下货币供给对工业经济的非对称冲击——兼论冲击路径的情景设计与分析

货币政策冲击对工业产出和价格的非对称影响，是新常态下把握好货币供给政策的方向、力度和节奏的重要参考依据，有助于提升货币供给政策的针对性、灵活性和前瞻性。局部投影方法在不同区制下，计算工业产出和价格对货币供给冲击的脉冲响应结果表明：货币供给冲击对工业产出的影响具有不确定性，且总体上表现为中性特征；而货币供给冲击对工业价格的影响不仅在不同区制下，而且在新常态前后均表现出显著的差异性和非对称性，总体来说是短期有效，长期中性的。情景设计的分析结果显示新常态下采用增加货币供给的政策来刺激工业经济是不可取的，其作用效果可能出现工业产出停滞不前，工业价格急剧飙升的工业滞胀。因此，需要从工业产业升级，工业技术创新等工业供给侧寻求工业经济新的增长点和动力机制。     

理智与情感:为历史“正名”的方法——从刘保昌长篇小说《楚武王》谈起

历史书写中的“最炫流行风”在今天的文化市场上大行其道——用拆解、谐谑、碎片化、戏拟等方式拉平历史的深度,以“傲慢与偏见”来充抵叙述历史的自信,也经由这种时尚化的叙述使历史以“轻松一刻”的形式实现消费欲望的满足.刘保昌的《楚武王》则疏离“流行前线”,以史料为据,正本清源,守正而出新,为历史“正名”,以彰显历史意识、历史理性的写作姿态,以坚持文学之理想力量的叙事激情,以有文化承担的叙事态度显示出对当代历史小说叙事品格与尊严的坚守.     

A modified common factor model for modelling mortality jointly for both sexes

Journal of Population Research - There is an increasing attention on the joint modelling of multiple populations. Populations are related in several ways, such as neighbouring countries, females...     

基本养老服务制度建设的理论阐释和政策框架

随着人口老龄化程度的加深,养老服务已经成为政府和全社会关注的重大民生工程。其中,基本养老服务制度建设成为一个关键议题。文章认为,如果这一关键议题不搞清楚,势必会影响养老服务的路径选择,甚至影响所选择的养老服务的发展路线和发展道路是否顺畅。为此,文章结合已经出台的养老服务政策,首先,从社会政策理论的角度阐明在什么情况下要建立基本养老制度,以及社会福利体制与基本养老服务制度建设的关系;其次,对养老服务制度建设的意识形态理据和中国养老服务模型的选择进行阐述,据此提出混合经济的养老服务模型,认为必须建立基本养老制度,厘清政府与市场之间的关系和界限;再次,提出基本养老服务制度的政策框架。