Thriving Under Uncertainty: The Effect of Achievement Goal Orientation on Job Insecurity and Flourishing

Social Indicators Research - Flourishing, a construct encompassing optimal human functioning, is an indicator of well-being. The purpose of this study was to examine the direct and indirect effects...     

Rate of Foot-and-Mouth Disease Virus Transmission by Carriers Quantified from Experimental Data

Upon infection with foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) a considerable number of animals become carriers of the virus. These carriers are considered to be a risk for new outbreaks, but the rate at which these animals can transmit the infection has not been quantified. An analysis was carried out using data from previously published experiments in order to quantify the transmission rate parameter β of FMDV infection from carriers to susceptible animals. The parameter β was estimated at 0.0256 (likelihood-based confidence interval: 0.008–0.059) infections per carrier per month. Moreover, analysis of published experimental data indicates that the proportion of FMDV carriers decreases at a rate of 0.115 per month. Both parameters obtained from this study are useful for quantitative risk analyses of the trade of animals from FMDV-infected areas or the lifting of vaccination programs.     

The effects of family therapies for adolescent delinquency and substance abuse: a meta-analysis

This meta-analysis summarizes results from k = 24 studies comparing either Brief Strategic Family Therapy, Functional Family Therapy, Multidimensional Family Therapy, or Multisystemic Therapy to either treatment-as-usual, an alternative therapy, or a control group in the treatment of adolescent substance abuse and delinquency. Additionally, the authors reviewed and applied three advanced meta-analysis methods including influence analysis, multivariate meta-analysis, and publication bias analyses. The results suggested that as a group the four family therapies had statistically significant, but modest effects as compared to treatment-as-usual (d = 0.21; k = 11) and as compared to alternative therapies (d = 0.26; k = 11). The effect of family therapy compared to control was larger (d = 0.70; k = 4) but was not statistically significant probably because of low power. There was insufficient evidence to determine whether the various models differed in their effectiveness relative to each other. Influence analyses suggested that three studies had a large effect on aggregate effect sizes and heterogeneity statistics. Moderator and multivariate analyses were largely underpowered but will be useful as this literature grows.     

Existence and Uniqueness of Maximal Reductions Under Iterated Strict Dominance

Iterated elimination of strictly dominated strategies is an order dependent procedure. It can also generate spurious Nash equilibria, fail to converge in countable steps, or converge to empty strategy sets. If best replies are well–defined, then spurious Nash equilibria cannot appear; if strategy spaces are compact and payoff functions are uppersemicontinuous in own strategies, then order does not matter; if strategy sets are compact and payoff functions are continuous in all strategies, then a unique and nonempty maximal reduction exists. These positive results extend neither to the better–reply secure games for which Reny has established the existence of a Nash equilibrium, nor to games in which (under iterated eliminations) any dominated strategy has an undominated dominator.     

EU Accession and Income Growth: An Empirical Approach

The dynamic effects from EU membership are crucial for the new member states to catch up with the average income level in the old member states. To gauge the dynamic effects we follow a two-step procedure in which a gravity equation for bilateral trade shows the trade effect of EU membership and a growth regression yields the income effect of trade. Shared EU membership is found to increase trade between two of its member states with about 27%. EU membership may contribute to trade by inducing countries to improve the quality of their institutions. Trade increases by another 23% if institutions improve, yielding a total trade increase of 50%. Improved openness increases income by 38% according to our estimates. Adding a small direct effect of improved institutions on income, the total income effect of EU membership is 40% for the 12 new members and Turkey. This implies that EU membership, or its effect on trade and institutions, could lead to large economic gains for the new member states, but does not bring them economically on par with the old member states.

Fertility transition in Communist Albania, 1950-90

In 1945, at the end of the Second World War, Albania had the highest fertility in Europe with an average of more than six live births per woman. However when Albania emerged from behind the 'olive curtain' in 1990, fertility had fallen to three children per woman, despite a pro-natalist environment and in the virtual absence of contraception and abortion. Nevertheless, after five decades, Albania's position at the top of the European fertility league remains unchanged. This paper documents the fertility transition in Albania during the period 1950-90 and places the demographic results in the context of recent socioeconomic and cultural change.     

Stepping stones for the unemployed: the effect of temporary jobs on the duration until (regular) work

Transitions from unemployment into temporary work are often succeeded by a transition from temporary into regular work. This paper investigates whether temporary work increases the transition rate to regular work. We use longitudinal survey data of individuals to estimate a multi-state duration model, applying the ‘timing of events’ approach. The data contain multiple spells in labour market states at the individual level. We analyse results using novel graphical representations, which unambiguously show that temporary jobs shorten the unemployment duration, although they do not increase the fraction of unemployed workers having regular work within a few years after entry into unemployment.     

Probability weighting for losses and for gains among smallholder farmers in Uganda

Theory and Decision - Probability weighting is a marked feature of decision-making under risk. For poor people in rural areas of developing countries, how probabilities are evaluated matters for...