A Graphical Tool for Interpreting Regression Coefficients of Trinomial Logit Models

Multinomial logit (also termed multi-logit) models permit the analysis of the statistical relation between a categorical response variable and a set of explicative variables (called covariates or regressors). Although multinomial logit is widely used in both the social and economic sciences, the interpretation of regression coefficients may be tricky, as the effect of covariates on the probability distribution of the response variable is nonconstant and difficult to quantify. The ternary plots illustrated in this article aim at facilitating the interpretation of regression coefficients and permit the effect of covariates (either singularly or jointly considered) on the probability distribution of the dependent variable to be quantified. Ternary plots can be drawn both for ordered and for unordered categorical dependent variables, when the number of possible outcomes equals three (trinomial response variable); these plots allow not only to represent the covariate effects over the whole parameter space of the dependent variable but also to compare the covariate effects of any given individual profile. The method is illustrated and discussed through analysis of a dataset concerning the transition of master’s graduates of the University of Trento (Italy) from university to employment.     

Measuring ambiguity preferences: A new ambiguity preference survey module

Journal of Risk and Uncertainty - Ambiguity preferences are important to explain human decision-making in many areas in economics and finance. To measure individual ambiguity preferences, the...     

A court file analysis of child protection cases: What do children say?

Children's participation in legal proceedings affecting them personally has been gaining importance. So far, a primary research concern has been how children experience their participation in court proceedings. However, little is known about the child's voice itself: Are children able to clearly express their wishes, and if so, what do they say in child protection cases? In this study, we extracted information about children's statements from court file data of 220 child protection cases in Germany. We found 182 children were asked about their wishes. The majority of the statements found came either from reports of the guardians ad litem or from judicial records of the child hearings. Using content analysis, three main aspects of the statements were extracted: wishes concerning main place of residence, wishes about whom to have or not contact with, and children granting decision‐making authority to someone else. Children's main focus was on their parents, but others (e.g., relatives and foster care providers) were also mentioned. Intercoder agreement was substantial. Making sure that child hearings are as informative as possible is in the child's best interest. Therefore, the categories developed herein might help professionals to ask questions more precisely relevant to the child.     

Indicators for European Union Policies. Business as Usual?

This paper looks at the role of statistics-based knowledge in the making of EU policy. We highlight shortcomings in the use of statistical indicators made in the course of the Lisbon strategy, ended in 2010. In our opinion the shortcomings are: (i) The paradox of the coexistence within the same European Commission of two holistic frameworks: the Structural Indicators and the Sustainable Development Indicators. One does not understand which of these two systems is taken to measure the overall policy performance of the European Union. (ii) A communication issue whereby the Lisbon strategy and its offspring EU 2020 are not communicated (Lisbon is to the average citizen the capital of Portugal) and are especially not communicated in relation to existing statistical indicators of good quality, against the opinion of academicians that transparency and accountability based on sound statistics favour democracy and participation. We illustrate the reasons that lead us to see these points as problematic and offer suggestions on how these should be tackled in line with the practices developed in the Open Method of Coordination. The danger is that in the absence of a debate on the issue, these shortcomings be perpetuated in the EU 2020 strategy.     

Early marriage, rape, child prostitution, and related factors determining the psychosocial effects severity of child sexual abuse in Ethiopia

This study was aimed at identifying factors that determine the psychosocial effects severity of child sexual abuse. Data were collected from 318 female children in Ethiopia using the Children's Impact of Traumatic Events Scale-Revised and the Rosenberg Self-Esteem Scale. The results revealed that respondents who survived rape and child prostitution were more symptomatic than those who were married early. Respondents for whom less time had elapsed since their first experience of abuse demonstrated a significantly higher level of post-traumatic stress disorder symptoms, negative reactions by others, self-blame, and guilt than those for whom more time had elapsed since such an experience. The respondents in an intact marital relationship were found to be less symptomatic than their never married and divorced counterparts. Implications for intervention and further investigations are discussed.     

Redrawing the Boundaries of Italianness: Televised Identities in the Age of Globalisation

Two irremovable axes of national identity, race and gender are still pivotal parameters in contemporary attempts to redefine the existing boundaries of Italianness. While cultural identity is not strictly limited to notions of gender and race, I argue for the centrality of these two concepts in the Italian context. Indeed, more than class or religion, television adopts the lens of race and gender to visually codify the essence of national identity and promote unambiguous images of Italianness. In this paper, I will first summarize recent trends of immigration to Italy, which have turned the country from a land of emigrants to one of immigrants. This directional shift has coincided with a (patent or veiled) need to rephrase the limits of identity and belongingness. The second section of this essay focuses on some specific television programs that question the relationship between race and Italian identity. Here, attention will shift towards the insistent focus on the issue of colour to connote diversity. Decoding these programs in light of postmodernist understandings of race and nationalism will better assess their role in the Italian mediascape. In September 1996, Italian public television broadcast the election of the first black Miss Italy in the country's history. Denny Mendez, the controversial beauty queen, was an 18-year-old of Dominican origins at the time of the election. Mendez was a naturalized Italian who had moved to Italy in the early 1990s when her mother married an Italian citizen. Besides the age requirement, Italian citizenship is the only necessary prerequisite for all the contenders. Clearly, the official rules of the national beauty pageant do not emphasize the need for a particular skin colour, facial features, or command of the Italian language. As proven in 1996, the vagueness of the terms of participation leaves ample ground for unexpected endings, particularly at the end of the twentieth century when Italy, like much of Western Europe, could no longer eschew the ubiquitous presence of ethnically different citizens.     

Does bullying reduce educational achievement? An evaluation using matching estimators

Using data from the Progress in International Reading Literacy Study (2006-PIRLS) and the Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study (2007-TIMSS), we investigate the determinants and the effect of being a victim of school bullying on educational achievement for Italian students enrolled at the fourth and eighth grade levels. Firstly, we apply an OLS estimator controlling for a number of individual characteristics and school fixed effects. Secondly, in order to attenuate the impact of confounding factors, we use propensity score matching techniques. Our empirical findings based on average treatment effects suggest that being a victim of school bullying has a considerable negative effect on student performance at both the fourth and the eighth grade level. Importantly, the adverse effect of bullying on educational achievement is larger at age 13 than at age 9. Hence, school violence seems to constitute a relevant factor in explaining student performance. Our findings suggest some possible interventions that Italian policy makers should adopt to prevent or reduce bullying behaviors.