Risk and punishment: The recent history and uncertain future of actuarial,algorithmic, and “evidence‐based” penal techniques

In recent decades, risk prediction has proliferated in the penal realm. Risk instruments currently guide an array of correctional decisions—such as participation in diversion programs, the provision of correctional services, and probation and parole supervision levels—and are being increasingly utilized or considered in pretrial detention and criminal sentencing. This article reviews empirical and theoretical accounts of the proliferation and effects of risk in the penal realm and also reflects on ongoing debates about the promises and perils of risk. Risk techniques have impacted the practices, discourses, and logics of punishment. Yet they have not triggered the abandonment of rehabilitative approaches (or retributive ones), nor have they replaced human judgment with a rationalized utopia or iron cage. This article also offers several interventions that complicate and further our understandings of risk. First, it highlights the complex entanglements between, on the one hand, actuarial and algorithmic risk instruments and, on the other, subjective, moral, and affective methods of evaluation. Second, it calls for increased attention to the performative effects of risk technologies: to the ways in which assessments not only report on but also create and alter the social world. The article concludes by reflecting on emerging topics and directions for future research.     

Childhood exposure to polluted neighborhood environments and intergenerational income mobility,teenage birth,and incarceration in the USA

Population and Environment - This paper joins a growing body of research linking measures of the physical environment to population well-being, with a focus on neighborhood toxins. Extending a...     

Finding renewal in the midst of disaster: The case of the deepwater horizon oil spill

In 2010, the United States experienced the worst environmental disaster in its history. An explosion on a BP oilrig located in the Gulf of Mexico triggered the crisis. As a result, the United States coast guard and BP were charged with crisis communication in its response to the crisis. This essay provides an unprecedented examination and analysis of the communication experiences of public information officers who worked in the unified command center in Houma, Louisiana during the Deepwater Horizon oil spill response. The authors use the discourse of renewal theory to understand the communication practices and choices of the public information officers. Then, using the renewal framework, the authors present three implications for improving crisis communication research and practice.     

Debiasing or regularisation? Two interpretations of the concept of ‘true preference’ in behavioural economics

Theory and Decision - I reconsider Bleichrodt, Pinto Prades and Wakker’s (BPW) 2001 paper about eliciting utility measures from stated preference surveys. That paper pioneers a method that is...     

Predicting the Risk of Biological Invasions Using Environmental Similarity and Transport Network Connectedness

Understanding the risk of biological invasions associated with particular transport pathways and source regions is critical for implementing effective biosecurity management. This may require both a model for physical connectedness between regions, and a measure of environmental similarity, so as to quantify the potential for a species to be transported from a given region and to survive at a destination region. We present an analysis of integrated biosecurity risk into Australia, based on flights and shipping data from each global geopolitical region, and an adaptation of the “range bagging” method to determine environmental matching between regions. Here, we describe global patterns of environmental matching and highlight those regions with many physical connections. We classify patterns of global invasion risk (high to low) into Australian states and territories. We validate our analysis by comparison with global presence data for 844 phytophagous insect pest species, and produce a list of high‐risk species not previously known to be present in Australia. We determined that, of the insect pest species used for validation, the species most likely to be present in Australia were those also present in geopolitical regions with high transport connectivity to Australia, and those regions that were geographically close, and had similar environments.     

A Shiny Update to an Old Experiment Game

ABSTRACT

Games can be a powerful tool for learning about statistical methodology. Effective game design involves a fine balance between caricature and realism, to simultaneously illustrate salient concepts in a controlled setting and serve as a testament to real-world applicability. Striking that balance is particularly challenging in response surface and design domains, where real-world scenarios often play out over long time scales, during which theories are revised, model and inferential techniques are improved, and knowledge is updated. Here, I present a game, borrowing liberally from one first played over 40 years ago, which attempts to achieve that balance while reinforcing a cascade of topics in modern nonparametric response surfaces, sequential design, and optimization. The game embeds a blackbox simulation within a shiny app whose interface is designed to simulate a realistic information–availability setting, while offering a stimulating, competitive environment wherein students can try out new methodology, and ultimately appreciate its power and limitations. Interface, rules, timing with course material, and evaluation are described, along with a “case study” involving a cohort of students at Virginia Tech. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.     

A Simple Toxicokinetic Model Exhibiting Complex Dynamics and Nonlinear Exposure Response

Uncertainty in model predictions of exposure response at low exposures is a problem for risk assessment. A particular interest is the internal concentration of an agent in biological systems as a function of external exposure concentrations. Physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models permit estimation of internal exposure concentrations in target tissues but most assume that model parameters are either fixed or instantaneously dose-dependent. Taking into account response times for biological regulatory mechanisms introduces new dynamic behaviors that have implications for low-dose exposure response in chronic exposure. A simple one-compartment simulation model is described in which internal concentrations summed over time exhibit significant nonlinearity and nonmonotonicity in relation to external concentrations due to delayed up- or downregulation of a metabolic pathway. These behaviors could be the mechanistic basis for homeostasis and for some apparent hormetic effects.     

The Reliability of Same-Race and Cross-Race Skin Tone Judgments

The purpose of this study is to examine the reliability of the skin tone measures in the widely used American National Election Studies data collection (AN     

Career Decision State and Assessment of RIASEC Interest Structure

The career decision state (CDS) was studied in relation to RIASEC (Realistic, Investigative, Artistic, Social, Enterprising, Conventional) profiles in Self-Directed Search results among college students (86 women, 27 men). Three CDS dimensions measured by the Career State Inventory (CSI; certainty, satisfaction, and clarity) were examined as predictors of RIASEC primary and secondary constructs. Significant, albeit modest, zero-order correlations (p < .05) emerged between clarity and 3 secondary constructs (i.e., consistency, commonness, and coherence). Results of regression analyses indicated that CSI dimensions predicted 1 secondary construct (i.e., commonness).     

The Principles and Ethics of Including Children with Disability in Child Research

This paper provides a set of principles and ethics, developed in collaboration between Pacific‐ and Australian‐based researchers, to guide research practice in a project enabling the self‐reporting of children with disability in Vanuatu and Papua New Guinea (PNG). The paper presents both a summary of academic literature relating to these principles and ethics, as well as their succinct ‘translation’ into a set of action statements for researchers working with children with disability. The paper offers a base for further development by others to guide research practice and foster the autonomous participation of children with disability in developing countries.