The relationship between conflict events and commodity prices in Sudan

Though recent literature uncovers linkages between commodity prices and conflict, the causal direction of the relationship remains ambiguous. We attempt to contribute to this strand of research by studying the dynamic relationship of commodity prices and the onsets of conflict events in Sudan. Using monthly data ranging from January 2001 through December 2012, we identify a structural breakpoint in the multivariate time series model of prices of the three staple foods (sorghum, millet, and wheat) and conflict measure (number of conflict events) in September of 2011. Applying structural vector autoregression (SVAR) and linear non-Gaussian acyclic model (LiNGAM), we find that wheat price fluctuation is a root cause of conflict events in Sudan. We recommend several policy and programmatic suggestions structured toward production, subsidy, price regulation and support for rural farmers and consumers to stabilize commodity prices.     

New high performing heuristics for minimizing makespan in permutation flowshops

The well-known NEH heuristic from Nawaz, Enscore and Ham proposed in 1983 has been recognized as the highest performing method for the permutation flowshop scheduling problem under the makespan minimization criterion. This performance lead is maintained even today when compared against contemporary and more complex heuristics as shown in recent studies. In this paper we show five new methods that outperform NEH as supported by careful statistical analyses using the well-known instances of Taillard. The proposed methods try to counter the excessive greediness of NEH by carrying out re-insertions of already inserted jobs at some points in the construction of the solution. The five proposed heuristics range from extensions that are slightly slower than NEH in most tested instances to more comprehensive methods based on local search that yield excellent results at the expense of some added computational time. Additionally, NEH has been profusely used in the flowshop scheduling literature as a seed sequence in high performing metaheuristics. We demonstrate that using some of our proposed heuristics as seeds yields better final results in comparison.