Caught in the Cross Fire: Children’s Right to Education During Conflict — The Case of Nepal 1996–2006

The article focuses on the impact on children, schools and education during the 10 year conflict in Nepal and raises questions for further research on schooling in the post‐conflict era. The article is based on research undertaken as part of a British Council funded Higher Education Link. Focus group discussions and interviews were conducted with school children, parents, teachers and community leaders between 2004 and 2006 and draws on informal discussions and observations with NGOs and teachers in the post‐conflict period, including NGOs visual methods to enable children’s voices to be heard in the peace process.     

A Probabilistic Model of the Economic Risk to Britain's Railway Network from Bridge Scour During Floods

Scour (localized erosion by water) is an important risk to bridges, and hence many infrastructure networks, around the world. In Britain, scour has caused the failure of railway bridges crossing rivers in more than 50 flood events. These events have been investigated in detail, providing a data set with which we develop and test a model to quantify scour risk. The risk analysis is formulated in terms of a generic, transferrable infrastructure network risk model. For some bridge failures, the severity of the causative flood was recorded or can be reconstructed. These data are combined with the background failure rate, and records of bridges that have not failed, to construct fragility curves that quantify the failure probability conditional on the severity of a flood event. The fragility curves generated are to some extent sensitive to the way in which these data are incorporated into the statistical analysis. The new fragility analysis is tested using flood events simulated from a spatial joint probability model for extreme river flows for all river gauging sites in Britain. The combined models appear robust in comparison with historical observations of the expected number of bridge failures in a flood event. The analysis is used to estimate the probability of single or multiple bridge failures in Britain's rail network. Combined with a model for passenger journey disruption in the event of bridge failure, we calculate a system‐wide estimate for the risk of scour failures in terms of passenger journey disruptions and associated economic costs.     

Random Weighting Estimation for Quantile Processes and Negatively Associated Samples

This article presents new theories of random weighting estimation for quantile processes and negatively associated samples. Under the condition that X ₁, X ₂,…, X _n are independent random variables with a common distribution, the consistency for random weighting estimation of quantile processes is rigorously proved. When X ₁, X ₂,…, X _n are not independent of each other, random weighting estimation of sample mean is established for negatively associated samples.     

A characterization of the Burr Type III and Type XII distributions through the method of percentiles and the Spearman correlation

A characterization of Burr Type III and Type XII distributions based on the method of percentiles (MOP) is introduced and contrasted with the method of (conventional) moments (MOM) in the context of estimation and fitting theoretical and empirical distributions. The methodology is based on simulating the Burr Type III and Type XII distributions with specified values of medians, inter-decile ranges, left-right tail-weight ratios, tail-weight factors, and Spearman correlations. Simulation results demonstrate that the MOP-based Burr Type III and Type XII distributions are substantially superior to their (conventional) MOM-based counterparts in terms of relative bias and relative efficiency.     

The Effectiveness of Decisional Guidance: An Empirical Evaluation

Decisional guidance is defined as how a decision support system (DSS) influences its users as they structure and execute the decision‐making process. It is assumed that decisional guidance has profound effects on decision making, but these effects are understudied and empirically unproven. This paper describes an empirical, laboratory‐experiment‐based evaluation of the effectiveness of deliberate decisional guidance and its four types. We developed and used a comprehensive model consisting of four evaluation criteria: decision quality, user satisfaction, user learning, and decision‐making efficiency. On these criteria, we compared decisional guidance versus no guidance, informative versus suggestive decisional guidance, and predefined versus dynamic decisional guidance. We found that deliberate decisional guidance was more effective on all four criteria; suggestive guidance was more effective in improving decision quality and user satisfaction, and informative guidance was more effective in user learning about the problem domain, whereas dynamic guidance was more effective than predefined guidance in improving decision quality and user learning; and both suggestive guidance and dynamic guidance reduced the decision time.     

Geographic Hotspots of Critical National Infrastructure

Failure of critical national infrastructures can result in major disruptions to society and the economy. Understanding the criticality of individual assets and the geographic areas in which they are located is essential for targeting investments to reduce risks and enhance system resilience. Within this study we provide new insights into the criticality of real‐life critical infrastructure networks by integrating high‐resolution data on infrastructure location, connectivity, interdependence, and usage. We propose a metric of infrastructure criticality in terms of the number of users who may be directly or indirectly disrupted by the failure of physically interdependent infrastructures. Kernel density estimation is used to integrate spatially discrete criticality values associated with individual infrastructure assets, producing a continuous surface from which statistically significant infrastructure criticality hotspots are identified. We develop a comprehensive and unique national‐scale demonstration for England and Wales that utilizes previously unavailable data from the energy, transport, water, waste, and digital communications sectors. The testing of 200,000 failure scenarios identifies that hotspots are typically located around the periphery of urban areas where there are large facilities upon which many users depend or where several critical infrastructures are concentrated in one location.     

Place and Child Health: The Interaction of Population Density and Sanitation in Developing Countries

A long literature in demography has debated the importance of place for health, especially children’s health. In this study, we assess whether the importance of dense settlement for infant mortality and child height is moderated by exposure to local sanitation behavior. Is open defecation (i.e., without a toilet or latrine) worse for infant mortality and child height where population density is greater? Is poor sanitation is an important mechanism by which population density influences child health outcomes? We present two complementary analyses using newly assembled data sets, which represent two points in a trade-off between external and internal validity. First, we concentrate on external validity by studying infant mortality and child height in a large, international child-level data set of 172 Demographic and Health Surveys, matched to census population density data for 1,800 subnational regions. Second, we concentrate on internal validity by studying child height in Bangladeshi districts, using a new data set constructed with GIS techniques that allows us to control for fixed effects at a high level of geographic resolution. We find a statistically robust and quantitatively comparable interaction between sanitation and population density with both approaches: open defecation externalities are more important for child health outcomes where people live more closely together.     

Stochastic Counterfactual Risk Analysis for the Vulnerability Assessment of Cyber‐Physical Attacks on Electricity Distribution Infrastructure Networks

In December 2015, a cyber‐physical attack took place on the Ukrainian electricity distribution network. This is regarded as one of the first cyber‐physical attacks on electricity infrastructure to have led to a substantial power outage and is illustrative of the increasing vulnerability of Critical National Infrastructure to this type of malicious activity. Few data points, coupled with the rapid emergence of cyber phenomena, has held back the development of resilience analytics of cyber‐physical attacks, relative to many other threats. We propose to overcome data limitations by applying stochastic counterfactual risk analysis as part of a new vulnerability assessment framework. The method is developed in the context of the direct and indirect socioeconomic impacts of a Ukrainian‐style cyber‐physical attack taking place on the electricity distribution network serving London and its surrounding regions. A key finding is that if decision‐makers wish to mitigate major population disruptions, then they must invest resources more‐or‐less equally across all substations, to prevent the scaling of a cyber‐physical attack. However, there are some substations associated with higher economic value due to their support of other Critical National Infrastructures assets, which justifies the allocation of additional cyber security investment to reduce the chance of cascading failure. Further cyber‐physical vulnerability research must address the tradeoffs inherent in a system made up of multiple institutions with different strategic risk mitigation objectives and metrics of value, such as governments, infrastructure operators, and commercial consumers of infrastructure services.     

Revitalizing the MBA for the New Millennium: A Collaborative Action Research Approach

Business schools are facing increased competition due to information technology innovations and customer dissatisfaction. In response, business schools are turning to a variety of solutions, such as team teaching, integrated curricula, and distance learning. This article presents the results of a collaborative action research project initiated by one business school faced with the need to revitalize its MBA program. The faculty engaged in this project learned much about the challenges of teaching an integrative course and the constancy of change. We share our conclusions and recommendations about an integrated curriculum, distance learning, adult learning, team teaching, revisions in program duration and structure, as well as advice on the necessary administrative support and compensation for business schools contemplating such changes. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Wo lernen Kinder mit sonderpädagogischem Förderbedarf besser? Ein Vergleich schulischer Kompetenzen zwischen Regel- und Förderschulen in der Primarstufe

Promoted by the UN Convention on the Rights of Persons with Disabilities, there is a trend towards the inclusive education of students with special educational needs (SEN) in regular classrooms. The present study addresses the question if achievement differences emerge between SEN students who attend a regular primary school and those who attend a school for special education. Based on data from the IQB-Ländervergleich Primarstufe 2011, a national assessment in German primary schools, the achievement of SEN students in regular schools (n?=?658) was compared to the achievement of students in special schools (n?=?413). Propensity score matching was applied to control for differences in achievement related characteristics between the two groups. After matching, SEN students in inclusive educational settings showed significantly higher test scores in German reading and listening comprehension as well as in mathematics than comparable SEN students in special schools. The effects were more pronounced for students with a special need of learning support than for students with speech and language-related special education support. Possible explanations for the higher achievement of SEN students in regular schools and for differential effects with regard to type of SEN are discussed.