Presidential Popularity and Presidential Vote

The president's popularity rating is highly predictive of hisvote share in a reelection bid, especially when popularity isassessed in June of that year. This June popularity-vote modelpredicts about as well as the Gallup final preelection poll,and a 50 percent approval rating will ensure reelection.     

Economics and the French Voter: A Microanalysis

In the United States, uncertainties surrounding the aggregatetime series evidence on economic conditions and voting behaviorled researchers to explore the relationship through individuallevel survey data. For France, aggregate time series studieshave begun to appear but, as yet, no microlevel analysis hasbeen done. My investigation attempts to resolve doubts arisingfrom the macrolevel work, by looking at individual economicperception and vote intention in surveys of the French electorate.I find that economic conditions, both personal and collective,exert a significant influence on party choice in French legislativeelections. Moreover, this economic influence appears more pervasivein France than in the United States.