Estimation of the marginal expected shortfall under asymptotic independence

We study the asymptotic behavior of the marginal expected shortfall when the two random variables are asymptotic independent but positively associated, which is modeled by the so-called tail dependent coefficient. We construct an estimator of the marginal expected shortfall, which is shown to be asymptotically normal. The finite sample performance of the estimator is investigated in a small simulation study. The method is also applied to estimate the expected amount of rainfall at a weather station given that there is a once every 100 years rainfall at another weather station nearby.     

The ‘Bakul Gendong’ as a communication strategy to reject the construction of a cement factory in Central Java

Since 2006, one of Indonesia’s biggest corporations operating in the cement industry has been trying to build a factory at Sukolilo village in Central Java, Indonesia. The potential for of environmental damage caused by mining and the construction of this new factory is the main source of conflict between the public and the giant corporation.The focus of this research was the communication strategy adopted by women in the community to reject the construction of the cement factory in Pati, Central Java, Indonesia. This research used a qualitative method through a case study approach. Interviews, observations, and literature studies were used as data collection techniques for in this research.We found that the practices of the “Bakul Gendong” communication strategy were effective in developing women’s awareness of environmental issues based on the values they believe in. Through the women peddlers, women’s awareness of the risk of environmental damage caused by the cement factories was successfully developed. They also created female farmers’ group named “Simbar Wareh” to strengthen cooperation between them and to better-organize their resistance. The women’s movement to resist the cement factory was also conducted by building a network, meeting authorities, demonstrating, displaying traditional symbols during celebrations such as the “Agustusan” (independence day celebration) and Kartinian (women’s day) as their sites of resistance. The local government and PT. Semen Gresik tended to use technical and economical communicative approaches, while the people mainly refer to local know how PT. Semen Gresik did not use the right communication strategy to understand the conflict that arose and how to handle it, until after 10 years of trying to build a factory in Sukolilo.     

Testing whether reduced cognitive performance in burnout can be reversed by a motivational intervention

It has been suggested that the motivation to spend effort is decreased in burnout patients, resulting in reduced cognitive performance. A question that remains is whether this decreased motivation can be reversed by motivational interventions. We investigated this by examining the effect of a motivational intervention on cognitive performance. We presented 40 burnout patients in The Netherlands and 40 matched healthy controls with a complex attention task. As expected, in a first block of trials the performance of the burnout patients was poorer than that of healthy controls. Subsequently, we provided the participants with fake positive feedback about their performance and announced that we would financially reward those who performed best in a subsequent block of trials. Contrary to the healthy controls, the burnout patients did not improve their performance and experienced more aversion to spend effort. The study demonstrated that impaired cognitive performance in burnout patients could not be reversed by motivational interventions, which is in line with contemporary theories on burnout that state that physiological changes in burnout may underlie a relatively long-term decrease in motivation. The implication of these results is that in practice employers and therapists might need to accept that there could be a reduction in cognitive performance in employees with burnout.     

The longitudinal link between popularity,likeability, fear of negative evaluation and social avoidance across adolescence

This study investigated the longitudinal bidirectional associations between likeability, popularity, fear of negative evaluation, and social avoidance, to aid in preventing the negative consequences and persistent trajectories of low social status and heightened social anxiety. In total, 1741 adolescents in grades 7–9 participated at 3 yearly waves. A self-report questionnaire measured fear of negative evaluation. Peer nominations assessed likeability, popularity, and social avoidance. Lower popularity predicted more avoidance, and vice versa. More avoidance was related to lower likeability over time. Being less popular and/or more liked by peers, increased fear of negative evaluation. Support for a transactional model between social anxiety and social status was found, but distinguishing different social status and social anxiety components is necessary.