‘Risky Places?’: Mapping Gambling Machine Density and Socio-Economic Deprivation

The aims of this project were to map the location and density of gambling machines in Britain; to explore whether geographic areas with higher densities of machines exist and to examine the socio-economic characteristics of these areas relative to others. Using geospatial analysis of premises records, we identified 8861 Machine Zones which were areas with a 400 meter radius around gambling machine venue and 384 High Density Machine Zones (HDMZ) with 1 or more gambling machine per hectare. There was a significant correlation between machine density and socio-economic deprivation. HDMZs had greater levels of income deprivation, more economically inactive people and a younger age profile than other areas; 37 % of those living in HDMZs were economically inactive compared with 33 % of those in non-machine areas. HDMZs were in seaside locations but also New Towns or satellite towns to major urban areas. Area affluence explains some of this pattern; of the New Towns with HDMZs, 78 % were in New Towns with a high proportion of low income areas. We therefore concluded that the distribution of gambling machines in Great Britain, in line with other international jurisdictions, displays a significant association with areas of socio-economic deprivation. The profile of the resident population living in HDMZs mirrors the profile of those most at-risk of experiencing harm from gambling. This spatial pattern has important implications for assessing the relationship between gambling availability and gambling-related harm, and for the future development of policy, harm-prevention and treatment strategies.     

Consumption and its discontents: addiction, identity and the problems of freedom

The focus of this paper is on the notion of 'addictive consumption', conceived as a set of discourses that are embedded within wider socio-historical processes of governance and control. It examines the discursive convergences and conflicts between practices of consumption and notions of addiction, which it notes are consistently represented in terms of the oppositional categories of self-control vs. compulsion and freedom vs. determinism. These interrelations are explored with reference to the development of notions of addiction, and their relation to shifting configurations of identity, subjectivity and governance. Finally, it suggests that the notion of 'addiction' has particular valence in advanced liberal societies, where an unprecedented emphasis on the values of freedom, autonomy and choice not only encourage the conditions for its proliferation into ever wider areas of social life, but also reveal deep tensions within the ideology of consumerism itself.     

Forms of Governance in European Union Social Policy: Continuity and/or Change?

This article addresses the question of the evolution of regulatory and distributive social policy at European Union (EU) level, with special emphasis on its quantitative aspects. Data collected in meticulous detail on the EU's powers in the area of social policy and their practical implementation from the early days of European integration through to the end of 2002 are presented in a range of figures and tables. It becomes apparent that, quantitatively speaking, the body of EU social law in existence to date is impressive. Contrary to expectation, non‐binding forms of action have not replaced those which are binding, or at least not yet. Soft law and the “open method of coordination”, the subject of so much recent debate, are rather a complement to classic legislation, entailing a minimum of harmonization. In terms of political science and legal theory this means that while the neo‐voluntarism and legalization hypotheses highlight important aspects of EU social policy, neither of them represents the whole story.     

Macro-Economic Factors in Credit Risk Calculations: Including Time-Varying Covariates in Mixture Cure Models

The prediction of the time of default in a credit risk setting via survival analysis needs to take a high censoring rate into account. This rate is because default does not occur for the majority of debtors. Mixture cure models allow the part of the loan population that is unsusceptible to default to be modeled, distinct from time of default for the susceptible population. In this article, we extend the mixture cure model to include time-varying covariates. We illustrate the method via simulations and by incorporating macro-economic factors as predictors for an actual bank dataset.     

Gender Equality and Fertility: Which Equality Matters?

Does gender equality matter for fertility? Demographic findings on this issue are rather inconclusive. We argue that one reason for this is that the complexity of the concept of gender equality has received insufficient attention. Gender equality needs to be conceptualized in a manner that goes beyond perceiving it as mere “sameness of distribution”. It needs to include notions of gender equity and thus to allow for distinguishing between gender difference and gender inequality. We sketch three dimensions of gender equality related to employment, financial resources, and family work, which incorporate this understanding: (1) the ability to maintain a household; (2) agency and the capability to choose; and (3) gender equity in household and care work. We explore their impact on childbearing intentions of women and men using the European Generations and Gender Surveys. Our results confirm the need for a more nuanced notion of gender equality in studies on the relationship between gender equality on fertility. They show that there is no uniform effect of gender equality on childbearing intentions, but that the impact varies by gender and by parity.     

Testing for lack of fit in inverse regression—with applications to biophotonic imaging

Summary.  We propose two test statistics for use in inverse regression problems Y = K θ + ɛ , where K is a given linear operator which cannot be continuously inverted. Thus, only noisy, indirect observations Y for the function θ are available. Both test statistics have a counterpart in classical hypothesis testing, where they are called the order selection test and the data-driven Neyman smooth test. We also introduce two model selection criteria which extend the classical Akaike information criterion and Bayes information criterion to inverse regression problems. In a simulation study we show that the inverse order selection and Neyman smooth tests outperform their direct counterparts in many cases. The theory is motivated by data arising in confocal fluorescence microscopy. Here, images are observed with blurring, modelled as convolution, and stochastic error at subsequent times. The aim is then to reduce the signal-to-noise ratio by averaging over the distinct images. In this context it is relevant to decide whether the images are still equal, or have changed by outside influences such as moving of the object table.     

SIBLINGS REVISITED: OLD CONFLICTS AND NEW OPPORTUNITIES IN LATER LIFE

This article discusses and gives clinical examples of crises that occur among and affect adult siblings in later life. They may be related to normative changes or they may be conflicts that have an impact on the well-being of the current family. Both are viewed as unique opportunities for resolution and reconciliation that can lead to a more realistic view of the past, and they may break an unfortunate cycle affecting future generations. Therapists are urged to be aware of and utilize these forces so that healing can take place.     

Copula directed acyclic graphs

A new methodology for selecting a Bayesian network for continuous data outside the widely used class of multivariate normal distributions is developed. The ‘copula DAGs’ combine directed acyclic graphs and their associated probability models with copula C/D-vines. Bivariate copula densities introduce flexibility in the joint distributions of pairs of nodes in the network. An information criterion is studied for graph selection tailored to the joint modeling of data based on graphs and copulas. Examples and simulation studies show the flexibility and properties of the method.