On probabilistic parametric inference

This paper formulates a theory of probabilistic parametric inference and explores the limits of its applicability. Unlike Bayesian statistical models, the system does not comprise prior probability distributions. Objectivity is imposed on the theory: a particular direct probability density should always result in the same posterior probability distribution. For calibrated posterior probability distributions it is possible to construct credible regions with posterior-probability content equal to the coverage of the regions, but the calibration is not generally preserved under marginalization. As an application of the theory, the paper also constructs a filter for linear Gauss–Markov stochastic processes with unspecified initial conditions.     

The Impact of Cultural Events on Community Reputation and Pride in Maribor,The European Capital of Culture 2012

Social Indicators Research - This paper examines the cultural and social impacts of the European Capital of Culture (ECOC) on the case of the Slovenian city Maribor, the cultural capital of Europe...     

The impact of testosterone replacement therapy on glycemic control,vascular function,and components of the metabolic syndrome in obese hypogonadal men with type 2 diabetes

Objective: This study set out to assess effects of testosterone replacement therapy (TRT) on parameters of metabolic syndrome and vascular function in obese hypogonadal males with type 2 diabetes mellitus (DM2).

Study design: Fifty-five obese hypogonadal diabetic males on oral hypoglycemic treatment were enrolled into this one-year, double-blind, randomized, placebo-controlled clinical study. Group T (n?=?28) was treated with testosterone undecanoate (1000?mg i.m. every 10?weeks) while group P (n?=?27) received placebo.

Methods: Anthropometrical and vascular measurements – flow-mediated dilatation (FMD) and intima media thickness (IMT) – biochemical and hormonal blood sample analyses were performed at the start of the study and after one year. Derived parameters (BMI, HOMA-IR, calculated free testosterone (cFT) and bioavailable testosterone (BT)) were calculated.

Results: TRT resulted in reduction of HOMA-IR by 4.64?±?4.25 (p?p?p?=?.005).

Conclusion: TRT normalized serum testosterone levels, improved glycemic control and endothelial function while exerting no ill effects on the study population.     

Learning discrete decomposable graphical models via constraint optimization

Statistical model learning problems are traditionally solved using either heuristic greedy optimization or stochastic simulation, such as Markov chain Monte Carlo or simulated annealing. Recently, there has been an increasing interest in the use of combinatorial search methods, including those based on computational logic. Some of these methods are particularly attractive since they can also be successful in proving the global optimality of solutions, in contrast to stochastic algorithms that only guarantee optimality at the limit. Here we improve and generalize a recently introduced constraint-based method for learning undirected graphical models. The new method combines perfect elimination orderings with various strategies for solution pruning and offers a dramatic improvement both in terms of time and memory complexity. We also show that the method is capable of efficiently handling a more general class of models, called stratified/labeled graphical models, which have an astronomically larger model space.     

EU Enlargement: Economic-Cultural Perspective and Cross-Country Comparison

Globalization is constantly changing the appearance of the modern world. The most intense processes of integration are taking place in Europe in the framework of the European Union (EU) enlargement. Though the formal process is more or less concluded, the subtle and informal ones still have a long way to go. Social structures (institutions, organizations, norms, etc.) and actions depend on the cultural environment in the narrowest sense of the word: human perceptions and values. This poses the basic question whether the economic-cultural orientations of the new EU member states are compatible with imported social structures. We have done an empirical research using Hofstede's cultural dimensions and European Values Study database for 26 European countries (23 EU member states, 2 candidate countries, and Northern Ireland as a separate entity). We have also compared the differences and similarities by applying the Ward method (cluster analysis) on our 10 constructed variables.     

Low Fertility and Long-Run Growth in an Economy with a Large Public Sector

Recently it has been suggested that low fertility countries may be caught in a trap that is hard to get out of. One important mechanism in such a trap would be social interaction and its effect on the ideal family size. Such social interaction mechanisms are hard to capture in formal models, therefore we use an agent-based simulation model to investigate the issue. In our experimental setup a stable growth and population path is calibrated to Swedish data using the Swedish social policy setup. The model is provoked into a fertility trap by increasing relative child costs linked to positive growth. Even rather large increases in child benefits are then insufficient to get out of the trap. However, the small number of children temporarily enables the economy to grow faster for several decades. Removing the adaptation of social norms turns out to disarm the trap.