入世后我国银行贷款信用保险发展问题研究

我国加入世贸组织后,面对国外混业经营金融机构的竞争压力,国内银行业和保险业的业务合作将成为一种新的趋势。开展银行贷款信用保险可有效防范银行信用风险,并为保险业提供更广阔的业务空间。本文就我国银行贷款信用保险业务开展现状、存在问题及原因进行了系统研究,并提出了拓展我国银行贷款信用保险业务的政策措施。     

Incomes after Job‐loss in the United States: From Programme Rules to Panel Data

Welfare state studies are usually motivated by one or both of two concerns: programme effects on the incidence of poverty, and the possibility of perverse incentive effects. Most research has been comparative, using cross‐national indicators from the Organisation for Economic Co‐operation and Development and other international organizations. That research often contrasts the generosity of programmes in a number of European countries and the lack of it in the USA. Focusing on income transfers after job‐loss, in this article we critically examine the comparative evidence on US welfare state generosity and then use the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID) to estimate what happens to job‐losers' incomes. The comparative analysis suggests conclusions more nuanced than found in much of the literature. The PSID analysis shows how the income effects of job‐loss vary across job‐losers and suggests that the role of unemployment compensation programmes in supporting incomes may be overstated.     

社会保险经办服务体系改革：机构定位与政策建议

以探讨构建服务型政府形势下社保经办服务体系改革思路为研究目的。通过实证分析方法,分析了当前社保经办服务建设能力不足和管理体制散乱的突出问题;借鉴国际经验,提出加强顶层设计,结合事业单位分类改革,重塑社保公共服务体系的思路。     

Copula-based regression models: A survey

In this review paper we collect several results about copula-based models, especially concerning regression models, by focusing on some insurance applications.     

论我国保险人订约说明义务制度的完善

保险合同因保险人和投保人的意思表示一致而成立，并以双方的相互诚信为基础。投保人对保险条款的理解主要依赖保险人提供的说明。目前保险人说明义务履行过程中仍存在许多问题，并且引发了多种保险合同纠纷。其问题主要存在于保险人订约说明时间和说明内容方面。应确立“投保人冷静观察期”制度，区分“法定免责”与“自定免责”条款以及有限制地适用“疑义利益解释规则”，以完善我国保险人订约说明义务制度。     

Failure Probability Under Parameter Uncertainty

In many problems of risk analysis, failure is equivalent to the event of a random risk factor exceeding a given threshold. Failure probabilities can be controlled if a decisionmaker is able to set the threshold at an appropriate level. This abstract situation applies, for example, to environmental risks with infrastructure controls; to supply chain risks with inventory controls; and to insurance solvency risks with capital controls. However, uncertainty around the distribution of the risk factor implies that parameter error will be present and the measures taken to control failure probabilities may not be effective. We show that parameter uncertainty increases the probability (understood as expected frequency) of failures. For a large class of loss distributions, arising from increasing transformations of location‐scale families (including the log‐normal, Weibull, and Pareto distributions), the article shows that failure probabilities can be exactly calculated, as they are independent of the true (but unknown) parameters. Hence it is possible to obtain an explicit measure of the effect of parameter uncertainty on failure probability. Failure probability can be controlled in two different ways: (1) by reducing the nominal required failure probability, depending on the size of the available data set, and (2) by modifying of the distribution itself that is used to calculate the risk control. Approach (1) corresponds to a frequentist/regulatory view of probability, while approach (2) is consistent with a Bayesian/personalistic view. We furthermore show that the two approaches are consistent in achieving the required failure probability. Finally, we briefly discuss the effects of data pooling and its systemic risk implications.     

劳动力缺失背景下新型农村养老保险需求及其影响因素研究

新型农村养老保险试点工作的全面开展、制度优化完善必须充分考虑农村现实状况和农民实际需求,本文以劳动力缺失、老龄化加剧、家庭养老功能弱化为背景,对陕西省西安市10个涉农区县开展实地调查,通过问卷设计与数据收集,获取1156个有效样本,综合运用描述性统计、相关分析和二分类、多分类逻辑回归分析方法,从参保意愿和支付能力的二维视角实证研究新型农村养老保险需求及其影响因素,结果表明：养老风险意识、新农保政策了解程度、新农保政策效果和缴费原则认可程度、耕地面积、期望养老金额是新农保参保意愿的显著影响因素,而表征经济状况的农民家庭年总收入、年基本支出与新农保支付能力之间具有显著的因果关系。     

投保人信赖利益保护问题

就如何维护投保人的信赖利益这一问题,理论上存在三种方案,即扩大合同成立的可能性、认定存在先合同义务以及扩大保险人的侵权责任范围.通过合同法或侵权法的一般原则来保护投保人的信赖利益均有可能侵蚀合同自由原则.相对而言,先合同义务理论实际上是一种理性平衡裁判术,在类型化的限制之下,既可维护合同自由,又可实现个案正义.     

浅谈战国时秦国的后勤经济战略

秦国能统一中国,除了政治、军事方面的原因,还有一个被史学界忽略的因素：建立了完整的经济战略体系。这套体系包括后勤基地建设、经济改革以及交通路网络。这套体系为秦统一战争提供了巨大的后勤保障。     

人身保险合同中的保险利益之我见

保险利益是保险合同的核心,缺乏保险利益的保险合同是无效的合同.本文对人身保险合同中有关保险利益的三个问题,即保险利益的主体、范围以及保险利益原则的存废进行了探讨.笔者认为,应增加受益人为保险利益的主体,同时对保险利益的范围应做扩大解释,并对保险利益原则予以保留.