Probabilistic population projections for countries with generalized HIV/AIDS epidemics

In 2015, the United Nations (UN) issued probabilistic population projections for all countries up to 2100, by simulating future levels of total fertility and life expectancy and combining the results using a standard cohort component projection method. For the 40 countries with generalized HIV/AIDS epidemics, the mortality projections used the Spectrum/Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) model, a complex, multistate model designed for short-term projections of policy-relevant quantities for the epidemic. We propose a simpler approach that is more compatible with existing UN projection methods for other countries. Changes in life expectancy are projected probabilistically using a simple time series regression and then converted to age- and sex-specific mortality rates using model life tables designed for countries with HIV/AIDS epidemics. These are then input to the cohort component method, as for other countries. The method performed well in an out-of-sample cross-validation experiment. It gives similar short-run projections to Spectrum/EPP, while being simpler and avoiding multistate modelling.     

论洪仁玗中西文化观之特色

洪仁接受了中西文化并皈依上帝 ,其文化观具有浓厚的宗教色彩。他既有对西方文化多方位接受和认同的趋新意识 ,又有对传统文化的恋旧情结 ,试图用附会中西的办法来规范中西文化。他的文化观极具开放性和前瞻性 ,但又有自相矛盾和不成熟的局限     

欧洲社会文化与欧洲统一运动

古希腊、罗马文化与基督教欧洲化引起欧洲社会的几次大转型，形成了泛欧社会文化传统；这个传统在文艺复兴时期被现代欧洲民族主义文化所取代而退隐。这个退隐的社会文化传统促使战乱不息的欧洲社会以统一运动的形式，开始其新的大社会转型性整合。今日欧盟正是这种社会文化转型的体现。     

论文化链接下的语言研究

“文化——语言”研究是一种立足于语言学而又导入了文化因素的语言研究方式,故称为文化链接下的语言研究。本文分析了这种语言研究方式的类型及主要研究方法,并且在对以往的“文化——语言”研究进行评价的基础上,提出对这项研究的深层思考。     

人类学视角:文化调适的相对性——对华北农业可持续发展的再思考

文化的调适使人类能够在演化过程中生存,并在不同的环境中扩张。但文化的调适在特定的环境里具有相对性:文化在某一系列环境中是适应的,或在短时期内是适应的,却在另一系列环境中是不适应的,或在长时期内是不适应的。从文化人类学的角度,回顾与探讨华北地区农业文化调适环境的状况以及存在的非生态的文化调适,重新思考华北农业可持续发展的定位。     

提高我国文化软实力的意义与对策

文化软实力是综合国力和国际竞争力的重要组成部分,我国要在激烈的国际竞争中赢得主动,就必须使国家文化软实力有一个大的提高。为此,要构建社会主义核心价值体系,努力提高国民综合素质;加强文化交流与传播,提高中华文化的渗透力;推进文化创新和文化体制改革,充分发掘中华传统文化的优势;在公共文化服务体系建设中,加强基层文化建设,以城市社区文化建设和农村文化建设为落点;建立产品丰富、门类齐全、结构合理、运行规范的文化市场体系,运用高新技术创新文化生产方式,培育新的文化业态,加快构建传输快捷、覆盖广泛的文化传播体系。     

The Perceptions of Women’s Roles and Progress: A Study of Malay Women

This study examines the general perceptions of women towards their roles, their interpretation of progress, as well as the facilitating factors and barriers to their progress. Questionnaires were distributed to 1,000 Malay women in Malaysia from rural and urban areas, from various age and income groups. Interviews were also carried out on the selected sample. Using both quantitative and qualitative methods of analyses, the results showed that women were perceived to play a strong, influential, and supportive role in their families. The results also showed how women perceive progress. These findings are discussed in relation to culture, socialization, values and norms of the Malay society.     

大学生言语失范的表现、成因及其应对措施

在生活环境、学习环境以及在公共领域中，大学生言语失范的现象大量存在，这严重影响了大学生的美好形象，也影响到大学生的健康成长以及社会评价，所以言语素质的培养不应该受到忽视而应该成为大学生道德教育的重点。大学生言语行为往往同道德认知、身心发展与社会环境等因素有关。可以通过弘扬优良的言语道德传统和加强言语道德的研究、教育与实践来提高大学生的言语素质。     

Estimating household structure in ancient China by using historical data: a latent class analysis of partially missing patterns

Summary.  Social data often contain missing information. The problem is inevitably severe when analysing historical data. Conventionally, researchers analyse complete records only. Listwise deletion not only reduces the effective sample size but also may result in biased estimation, depending on the missingness mechanism. We analyse household types by using population registers from ancient China (618–907 AD) by comparing a simple classification, a latent class model of the complete data and a latent class model of the complete and partially missing data assuming four types of ignorable and non-ignorable missingness mechanisms. The findings show that either a frequency classification or a latent class analysis using the complete records only yielded biased estimates and incorrect conclusions in the presence of partially missing data of a non-ignorable mechanism. Although simply assuming ignorable or non-ignorable missing data produced consistently similarly higher estimates of the proportion of complex households, a specification of the relationship between the latent variable and the degree of missingness by a row effect uniform association model helped to capture the missingness mechanism better and improved the model fit.     

一种求解双目标线性规划的方法及其在上海市土地使用和交通方面的应用

本文介绍了一种求解双目标线性规划(SBLP)的方法.根据上海市土地使用与交通的现状建立了一个拟动态的模型(BOLT),并用该方法加以求解。根据得到的解对上海市土地使用与交通相互作用的情况进行了分析。