矿难的法律治理:一种法经济学的路径

在法经济学的基本范式中,成本效益理论揭示了违法行为主体实施违法行为的概率与违法成本成反比、与违法收益成正比的原理。我国近年来频频发生的矿难事故与采矿中违法主体的违法行为有密切关系。由于我国规制采矿的配套法制不完善,导致行为主体实施违法行为的成本过低而收益巨大,最终引发了多起重大矿难事故。所以在法经济学的视角下,完善各项与采矿有关的法律制度以提高采矿中行为主体实施违法行为的成本,减少其收益,就成为预防和减少矿难事故发生的有效途径。     

Communication of risk: health hazards from mobile phones

Summary. Possible health hazards from mobile phones arise from the use of the phones themselves and via the base stations that relay signals. Except for an increase in traffic accidents induced by the use of mobile phones in cars the evidence for a health hazard is at most indirect, but it cannot be entirely dismissed; the phones have not been widely used for sufficiently long for direct epidemiological studies to have high sensitivity for detecting any induced incidence of cancer, for example. The background and evidence are briefly reviewed and the steps taken in the UK to make information widely available described.     

煤矿瓦斯爆炸事故单危险源风险度量模型研究

本文研究了煤矿瓦斯爆炸事故危险源的分类,把危险源划分为人的不安全行为、机器设备不安全状态、环境不安全特征和管理缺陷四大类,并根据煤矿现场调查各类危险源的数据以及相应数学方法的特点,提出煤矿瓦斯爆炸事故人、机器设备(物)、环境、管理四类危险源的风险度量方法,在此基础上构建四类危险源的风险度量模型。研究表明,危险源的风险度量模型由风险发生的可能性、危险源重要度以及事故导致的损失构成;危险源风险发生的可能性,在具体应用中可以采用各类危险源的不可靠度、故障率等来衡量;危险源在事故中的重要度可以通过分析事故故障树种要素结构重要性获取。根据风险评价的结果,可以对危险源进行分级排序,从而为煤矿事故单危险源的控制提供依据。     

交通拥堵与雾霾污染的因果关系——基于收敛交叉映射技术的经验研究

交通拥堵与雾霾污染是制约现代城市发展的两大顽疾，准确识别交通拥堵与雾霾污染之间的交互影响，有助于城市管理者重新审视现行治堵与治霾政策的合理性。本文借助大数据平台采集了我国99个城市的高德拥堵延迟指数（CDI）、空气质量指数（AQI）及六种分项空气污染物浓度日报数据，首次采用收敛交叉映射（CCM）方法实证考察了交通拥堵与雾霾污染之间的因果关系。研究发现，CDI与AQI以及CDI与分项污染物组成的动态系统均呈现明显的非线性与弱耦合特征。基于CCM检验结果，大多数城市的CDI与AQI之间不存在显著的因果关系；从分项空气污染物的角度，大多数城市的CDI与主要空气污染物之间不存在显著因果关系，但与次要空气污染物之间却存在显著的单向或双向因果关系。上述结果表明，尽管交通拥堵与雾霾污染之间有一定关联，但在因果关系上现有的经验证据并不支持两者相互影响，治堵和治霾不能“一箭双雕”而必须“双管齐下”。本文的研究在经验上丰富了关于交通拥堵与雾霾污染交互影响的讨论，对城市管理者更加谨慎与合理地制定治堵政策与治霾政策有重要现实意义。     

Major Accidents (Gray Swans) Likelihood Modeling Using Accident Precursors and Approximate Reasoning

Compared to the remarkable progress in risk analysis of normal accidents, the risk analysis of major accidents has not been so well‐established, partly due to the complexity of such accidents and partly due to low probabilities involved. The issue of low probabilities normally arises from the scarcity of major accidents’ relevant data since such accidents are few and far between. In this work, knowing that major accidents are frequently preceded by accident precursors, a novel precursor‐based methodology has been developed for likelihood modeling of major accidents in critical infrastructures based on a unique combination of accident precursor data, information theory, and approximate reasoning. For this purpose, we have introduced an innovative application of information analysis to identify the most informative near accident of a major accident. The observed data of the near accident were then used to establish predictive scenarios to foresee the occurrence of the major accident. We verified the methodology using offshore blowouts in the Gulf of Mexico, and then demonstrated its application to dam breaches in the United Sates.     

清政府管辖西藏地方的立法制度述评

本文从法制角度出发,论述清政府对西藏地方的法律制度,以阐明西藏从来就是中国领土的一部分这一主题。     

利益分割时期的安全事故与政府改进问题

政府在事故预防和处置中居于主导地位.心理学的"华生模式"和"皮亚杰模式"实现"社会学转向",可用以分析政府的责任问题.而安全事故的"强刺激"和"弱刺激"对政府改进效应是不同的.中国当前社会转型中逐步出现了城乡、单位、地方之间而主要表现为阶层之间的利益分割局面.因而政府的责任一方面不仅仅在于对某一事故的"强刺激"进行反应性改进,更应该在于包括"弱刺激"在内逐步把内化以人为本的责任伦理和信念伦理结合起来,对事故进行事前预知和防范,同时另一方面需要抑制精英阶层对整个社会利益的割据,保障社会底层的安全权益,引导底层进行安全维权,乃至抗争上层"官商秩序(结构)"的利益勾结,打破"资(方)强劳(方)弱"、"上(层)强下(层)弱"结构,从消极的"华生模式"转向积极反应的"皮亚杰模式",不断提升政府效率,保障个体生命安全和社会安全.     

石景山制铁所相关数据考

本文通过考证,修正日本侵略者统治石景山制铁所时的三项重要数据。这些数据曾长期被广泛使用,具体为1944年3月发生31812起事故,是由于读错了文献,将当月所有员工的事假统计当作事故来理解;日本统治下的石景山制铁所占石景山地区的土地面积应该是1676228平方米(1.676228平方公里),为有关出版物所述的35000亩(23.331平方公里)的7.18%;石景山制铁所员工最多时是1944年10月,为2.4万人,不是有关出版物所述的5.9万人。     

我国道路交通事故社会救助基金制度之检讨与完善

道路交通事故救助基金作为一种新型的社会保障制度,在机动车交通事故责任强制保险无法发挥作用时,为交通事故中的受害人提供社会救助。自救助基金制度实施以来,其所具有的社会保障功能引起各地政府的重视,但严格的补偿条件和因地而异的运行机制阻碍了社会救助功能的发挥。基于此,需要进一步扩大救助基金的来源,修改救助基金的补偿条件,完善救助基金的追偿,使救助基金作为社会救助之一种,能够起到安定人民生活、救助社会弱者的作用。     

Austin Turk,stratification reinforcers and reversals,and traffic ticket decisions by Boston police during April and May of 2001

Austin Turk theorizes that places in stratification hierarchies affect police–citizen encounters by reinforcing or reversing the positional authority of police officers. To this point, however, there have been only three direct tests of the stratification portions of Turk's theory. Two examined overt conflict and all represented Turk's concepts using aggregated measures. The results are mixed. The present research adds a fourth test to the stratification and policing literatures by examining the effects of aggregated as well as disaggregated measures of stratification reinforcers and reversals on traffic ticket decisions by Boston police officers during April and May of 2001. Net of important control measures, there is no support for Turk's theory using the aggregated stratification measures employed in previous research. However, support for Turk's theory is clearly visible when viewed through the lens of some of the disaggregated stratification measures advanced for the first time in present research. We conclude that more research is needed to determine whether stratification reinforcers and reversals are among the factors affecting people in police blue and the people they police, with a sustained focus on both aggregated and disaggregated measures.