新课程下的教育评价：趋势与走向

论文结合国内外正在进行的评价实践,提出了新课程背景下教育评价新的发展趋势和走向:在评价主体上呈现出主客体之间渗透的互动过程;在评价目标上强调鉴别性与导向性并重;在评价方法上注重质性与量化之间融合的多元化走向;在评价途径上突出目标性和过程性的结合。     

The Robustness of Trend Stationarity: An Illustration with the Extended Nelson-Plosser Dataset

We re-evaluate Andreu and Spanos's findings in favour of trend stationarity by considering the extended Nelson-Plosser data set. This expanded (to 1988) data set includes a period of rather different behaviour compared with the original Nelson-Plosser data used by Andreou and Spanos. We find that Andreou and Spanos's models (with only minor adjustments) exhibit remarable stability over this extended period, and indicate that their conclusions are more robust than they have shown.     

论职工持股制度的深化与发展

农村包产到户,城市职工持股”是中国经济体制改革的两种基本模式。在企业产权制度改革中,应大力发展职工持股制度,明确发展思路与重点,规范职工持股制度的运作与管理。     

Trend smoothness achieved by penalized least squares with the smoothing parameter chosen by optimality criteria

This work presents a study about the smoothness attained by the methods more frequently used to choose the smoothing parameter in the context of splines: Cross Validation, Generalized Cross Validation, and corrected Akaike and Bayesian Information Criteria, implemented with Penalized Least Squares. It is concluded that the amount of smoothness strongly depends on the length of the series and on the type of underlying trend, while the presence of seasonality even though statistically significant is less relevant. The intrinsic variability of the series is not statistically significant and its effect is taken into account only through the smoothing parameter.     

中国城镇新增住房需求规模的测算与分析

本文围绕城镇家庭户自然增长、城镇家庭户机械增长和城镇存量住房拆除三项需求来源,设计了基于人口普查等公开统计数据定量测算城镇新增住房需求规模的系统性方法,对2001—2010年和2011—2015年间全国和各省份城镇新增住房需求规模进行测算与分析。在此期间新增住房供需关系经历了从基本均衡向供过于求的变化,同时存量住房拆除引致的被动需求取代城镇家庭户自然增长和机械增长引致的主动需求,成为新增住房需求的最主要来源。东、中、西部省份在新增需求规模、新增供需比、需求结构等方面表现出明显差异。本文还进一步对2021—2030年的发展趋 势进行了定量预测。由于三项需求来源均趋于下降,2021—2025年和2026—2030年间全国年均城镇新增住房需求规模预计将较2011—2015年间分别下降33%和53%。本文设计的城镇新增住房需求规模测算方法和预测思路能够为各级政府“十四五”住房发展规划编制、房地产企业战略制定等提供参考。     

新疆民族传统体育发展趋势研究分析

目前有资料记载挖掘整理出新疆民族传统体育项目278个。民族传统体育在资料收集、整理、挖掘中，应将新疆民族传统体育项目和信息技术相结合，把有代表性项目编辑成网络游戏和游戏软件，做好新疆民族传统体育项目普及工作，加快文字收集和挖掘工作，使新疆民族传统体育进入良性可持续发展。     

盖尔达维的中间主义思想研究

作为当代阿拉伯-伊斯兰世界的主流思潮之一，伊斯兰“中间主义”认为，伊斯兰文明的首要信息是中正与和平，伊斯兰教反对各种形式的极端主义和恐怖主义，不同文明间应开展平等对话与交流，不同民族和国家间的友好交往是人类共同发展和世界持久和平的基础。卡塔尔大学教授尤苏夫·盖尔达维是这一思潮的重要代表人物之一，本文对其主要思想作了简要介绍，并指出他的中正、中和思想对于维护阿拉伯民族的团结、促进各国人民相互理解和世界和平事业，具有重要的现实意义。     

浅析网络营销的发展趋势

网络营销是21世纪企业营销实践与现代信息通讯技术、计算机网络技术相结合的产物，它以广阔的范围和低廉的价格正在逐步占领市场的每个角落，并且成为一种重要的营销方式。中国经济及其互联网飞速发展的情况、网络新技术发展和网络最根本的互动性这三方面推动着网络营销呈现加速发展的态势。它必将成为覆盖面最大、最新的营销方式。     

国际工程承包市场与承包工程新趋势

本文从国际工程承包市场趋势分析入手，提出了国际工程发展的新趋势及其对策。     

Transitional appreciation of equilibrium exchange rates and the ERM II

A suitable parity for exchange rate fixing can be derived from an analysis of the equilibrium exchange rate. As the equilibrium exchange rates of the new EU 5 countries, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Slovenia, and the Slovak Republic, tend to exhibit appreciation trends, credibility of the potential commitment to fixed exchange rate parity with respect to the euro can be undermined. In order to investigate this issue, we estimate a behavioral model of real exchange rates for EU 5 countries and derive the respective equilibrium real exchange rates. Using the linear-quadratic filter we estimate permanent equilibrium exchange rates and their stationary points. We find that as of 2004 fixing of the national currencies to the euro should not be undermined by further significant trend appreciation in the equilibrium exchange rates of the EU 5 countries, in aggregate.